Summary: The award for the most accurate title of the year: “The Point of No Return“, Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic, September 2010. Yes, attacking Iran would the point of no return for Israel. I doubt they’ll do it. The leaders of neither Iran nor Israel are psychos.
Godlberg’s research finds a “a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50% chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” He presents almost no substantial evidence to support it. If so, then:
… one day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon {and} … tell their American counterparts that they are taking this drastic step because a nuclear Iran poses the gravest threat since Hitler to the physical survival of the Jewish people. The Israelis will also state that they believe they have a reasonable chance of delaying the Iranian nuclear program for at least three to five years.
And what price might Israel pay for this temporary gain?
… sparking lethal reprisals, and even a full-blown regional war that could lead to the deaths of thousands of Israelis and Iranians, and possibly Arabs and Americans as well; of creating a crisis for Barack Obama that will dwarf Afghanistan in significance and complexity; of rupturing relations between Jerusalem and Washington, which is Israel’s only meaningful ally; of inadvertently solidifying the somewhat tenuous rule of the mullahs in Tehran; of causing the price of oil to spike to cataclysmic highs, launching the world economy into a period of turbulence not experienced since the autumn of 2008, or possibly since the oil shock of 1973; of placing communities across the Jewish diaspora in mortal danger, by making them targets of Iranian-sponsored terror attacks, as they have been in the past, in a limited though already lethal way; and of accelerating Israel’s conversion from a once-admired refuge for a persecuted people into a leper among nations.
And best of all:
{An} Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, successful or not, may cause Iran to redouble its efforts—this time with a measure of international sympathy—to create a nuclear arsenal.
That’s an acceptable risk-reward ratio … for psychos. As described in Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran (22 December 2007). Obama is a fool if he does not tell Israel that such an attack will end US support for Israel.
Articles describing fabrications and errors in Goldberg’s article
- “Jeffrey Goldberg Probes Israel’s Iran Strike Option: Is Netanyahu a ‘Bomber Boy’?“, Steve Clemons, Washington Note, 10 August 2010
- “Jeffrey Goldberg Still America’s Preeminent Propagandist“, Jonathan Schwarz, A Tiny Revolution, 11 August 2010
- Recommended: “Mainstreaming war with Iran“, Stephen M. Walt, blog of Foreign Policy, 11 August 2010
- “The Weak Case for War with Iran“, Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett, blog of Foreign Policy, 11 August 2010
- “How propagandists function: Exhibit A“, Glenn Greenwald, Salon, 12 August 2010
- “Since when is it rational to bet on history being made by rational men?“, David Rothkopf, blog of Foreign Policy, 12 August 2010 — Speculates about present or future irrational Iranian leaders; but no mention of irrational leaders in Israel
Posts about Iran’s atomic bomb program, 5 years from success since 1984
- Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger? , 13 November 2007
- Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?, 16 January 2009
- More about Iran, things you know that might not be so, 3 October 2009
- Jeremy Hammond explains why Iran’s New Nuclear Site is “Much Ado About Nothing”, 30 September 2009
- Follow-up on America’s latest wetting our pants episode: Iran’s secret atomic facility, 13 November 2009
- Iran will have the bomb in 5 years (again), 21 January 2010
Posts about a strike by Isreal at Iran
- Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran , 22 December 2007
- A new story about a possible war with Iran, 21 May 2008 — About the 20 May Jerusalem Post story, originally reported by Army Radio (see below).
- “As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon”. 3 June 2008 — About the Fischer story in the 30 May Daily Star.
- “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable” . 8 June 2008 — War-talk by a former Defense Minster of Israel.
- Der Spiegel: “Israeli Ministers Mull Plans for Military Strike against Iran”. 17 June 2008 — Rumors in Der Spiegel of a strike by Israel on Iran.
- More rumors of a strike at Iran by Israel, 1 July 2008 — More rumors.
- Leaks about a possible strike at Iran (this is a hot issue), 7 July 2008 — Leaks of concerns about the effectiveness of a strike by Israel, and the consequences.
- The most expensive psy-war campaign – ever!, 13 July 2008
- ISIS: “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.”, 8 August 2008
- Hot news about a possible strike at Iran!, 3 July 2010
- Warning of an imminent strike at Iran by Israel, 4 August 2010
Posts about Israel
- The Fate of Israel, 28 July 2006
- The War Nerd shows how simple 4GW theory can be, 22 January 2009
- Are Israel’s leaders insane? Jeffrey Goldberg thinks so., 15 August 2010
“Truth squad: Has Iran said it wants to attack Israel?“, CNN, 23 November 2011 — Excerpt: