Category Archives: Geopolitical News

Posts about interesting news, with links and brief excerpts.

Women moving on top of men in America

Summary:  Long-time readers have seen some stunning but accurate predictions during the past 7 years. The secret to this track record: predicting things that have already happened, but that our preconceptions prevent us from seeing. Here’s another.  {1st of 2 posts today.}

Woman in Charge

 

Contents

  1. See the future by looking at the present.
  2. Women as leaders.
  3. Hollywood shows us the future.
  4. Conclusions.
  5. For More Information.
  6. Poor Castle, a beta in his own show.

 

(1)  We can see the future if we look at the present

What will America look like if current trends continue putting women on top of men? I (and others) have written about this for 5 years, yet the narratives of women’s oppression remained so strong that the facts have only recently penetrated to public awareness — and few have yet considered their implications. Enrichment programs for women, scholarship programs for women, job programs for women — all adding to the growing gap in women’s performance over men’s.  People are beginning to notice: “Women’s Participation in Education and the Workforce“, Council of Economic Advisers, 14 October 2014.  Some of their observations, about which they draw no conclusions (wisely, too inflammatory)…

  • Women’s college going has surpassed men’s in recent decades and has continued to increase. Women are more likely to go to college and graduate school and more likely to graduate from when they go. In 2013, 25-34 year old women were 21% more likely than men to be college graduates and 48% more likely to have completed graduate school.
  • Women now account for almost half of students in JD, MBA, and MD programs, up from less than 10% in the 1960s.
  • College-educated young women are now as likely to be employed as doctors, dentists, lawyers, professors, managers and scientists as traditionally female-dominated occupations such as teachers, nurses, librarians, secretaries, or social workers. … The share of occupations in which women are at least 80% of all workers has remained relatively constant.
  • Men and women with professional degrees have similar earnings in their 20s.
  • Women earn more than men in 16% of all married couples and 29% of married couples where both spouses work. These shares have nearly doubled since 1981.

See the future in the relative graduation rates of women vs. men. More women have bachelor’s degrees; more women have some graduate school, and the gap is widening…

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The revolution in gender roles reshapes society in ways too disturbing to see

Summary:  Today we start a new series about one of the most profound revolutions ever to hit western society — the change in gender roles. The conclusions of the series are, like so many on the FM website, wildly non-consensus — and disturbing to most readers. This is the warm-up pitch.  {1st of 2 posts today.}

Also: I’ve not added graphics to this post. Are they useful, not useful, or distracting? Tell me in the comments.

Gender Roles

I updated my list of accurate predictions and the (thankfully much smaller) list of failed predictions, and drew two conclusions. The list of “hits” is impressively long (posting the score makes me careful!) but I’ve not made many new predictions in the last year. I’m confused about the economic and geopolitical issues that bedevil our world. So I’ll change the focus to something I believe much easier to forecast: the revolution in gender roles now under way.

Side note: what’s the secret of my forecasting success?  I describe the obvious things that we all see, but that we do not want to acknowledge. This accounts for the dark tone of so many posts on the FM website (despite the occasional posts with good news). For example, the posts about cybercrime and cyberwar by various experts describe trends of extreme importance in a manner understandable by a general audience — yet gets fewer-than normal views. Too disturbing; we prefer not to see. I suspect that this series will provide another example, as its observations and conclusions will upset almost everybody — Left and Right (as usual for the FM website).

For the opener in this series we start with an excerpt from Allan Bloom’s The Closing of the American Mind. Published in 1987, he clearly foresaw the changes coming to American society. It’s at the top of my list of recommended books.  He’s the equivalent for social issues of Martin van Creveld about war. Here Bloom looks at the revolution — one of the most profound ever — coming to the family and gender roles. It was mind-bendingly prophetic when written 30 years ago; it’s implications remain stunning today.

 From The Closing of the American Mind
Chapter Three: “Relationships”

Relations between the sexes have always been difficult, and that is why so much of our literature is about men and women quarreling. There is certainly legitimate ground to doubt their suitability for each other given the spectrum — from the harem to Plato’s Republic — of imaginable and actually existing relations between them, whether nature acted the stepmother or God botched the creation by an afterthought, as some Romantics believed.

That man is not made to be alone is all very well, but who is made to live with him? This is why men and women hesitated before marriage, and courtship was thought necessary to find out whether the couple was compatible, and perhaps to give them basic training in compatibility. No one wanted to be stuck forever with an impossible partner. But, for all that, they knew pretty much what they wanted from one another. The question was whether they could get it (whereas our question today is much more what is wanted). A man was to make a living and protect his wife and children, and a woman was to provide for the domestic economy, particularly in caring for husband and children. Frequently this did not work out very well for one or both of the partners, because they either were not good at their functions or were not eager to perform them.

In order to assure the proper ordering of things, the transvestite women in Shakespeare, like Portia {The Merchant of Venice} and Rosalind {As you Like It}, are forced to masquerade as men because the real men are inadequate and need to be corrected.

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What are the big questions that 2014 might answer?

Summary:  December brings forth a crop of retrospective analysis about the past year and confident forecasts about the next. The FM website has posted almost daily doses of the former, and I lack the confidence to do the latter. Instead let’s ask about questions. What issues might dominate 2014, and influence the years beyond? Finding the right questions can help us open our minds to the unexpected, and perhaps even prepare for it. Post your questions in the comments.

Question Mark #1

“Uncertainty … is painful, but must be endured if we wish to live without the support of comforting fairy tales.”
— From the introduction to A History of Western Philosophy by Bertrand Russell (1945)

Questions

  1. Effects of the taper?
  2. Results from Abenomics?
  3. The War on Terror?
  4. The global warming campaign?
  5. For More Information

(1)  The taper

What effect will normalizing monetary policy (slowing QE3 being the first step) have on the economy? Will it slow the economy? Will it depress asset prices? Will it boost interest rates, perhaps ruinously? If it ends badly, will it decrease public confidence in the Federal Reserve, perhaps in economists?

Also, how strong are the deflationary forces at work? Inflation has fallen during QE3, despite credit and GDP growth, with little change in the value of the US dollar. That’s an anomaly (much of my forecasting success comes from attention to anomalies ignored by the consensus). What happens to inflation as QE3 ends? Do we get the widely predicted inflationary hangover, or lapse into deflation?

Click here to see posts about the taper.

(2)  Abenomics

There were to be three arrows:

  • double the money supply in two years,
  • boost the fiscal stimulus (borrow and spend even more),
  • structural reform.

So far the government has fired the first two arrows, but not the third and most important one. The arrows were to produce:

  • increased real wages,
  • increased inflation (specifically, core inflation; not just increased cost of imports) with flattish interest rates,
  • increased volume of exports (using the lower value of the Yen to gain market share, not just increase profits),
  • a more efficient Japan (from the combination of faster growth, more investment, and reform).

The results to date are zero out of four. Wages are falling; real wages are falling even faster. Import prices are rising, but not other prices. Export volumes are not up strongly (+4.4% YoY in October). Reforms so far remain only talk.

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Justice still lives. It’s found a new home – in Europe.

Summary:  The European Court of Human Rights shows America that the love of justice still lives there, finding Macedonia guilty of the crime of cooperating with CIA crimes.  Slowly what was a city on a hill (Matthew 5:14) sinks into the mud.  Slowly our global leadership erodes, leaving just another military power (funded by loans from Japan and China).

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A Lady Justice for the 21st C. By Zhack-Isfaction at DeviantArt.

Content

  1. Summary of the case
  2. The Court’s ruling
  3. America responds: secrets trump justice
  4. More about this episode of our history
  5. For More Information about justice in America

This is another in a series of posts about the death of justice in America.  Links to the others appear at the end.

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(1)  Summary of the case

From “Torturing the Wrong Man“, Amy Davidson,
The New Yorker, 13 December 2012

A judgment issued on Thursday by the European Court of Human Rights contains an account of the treatment of a man who, after some detective work by a foreign police force, was handed over to the CIA as suspected member of Al Qaeda …

Why would someone with such dangerous connections be released? What about the information he might have that could unravel some devious plot?

The answer is simple: after a couple of months, the C.I.A. figured out that they had picked up not a shadowy terrorist but a car salesman from Bavaria who happened to have a similar name. Even then, they kept him prisoner for several weeks while trying to figure out their next move. There is now no dispute that this was a case of simple mistaken identity.

(2)  The ruling

Excerpt from a Decision by the European Court of Human Rights, 13 December 2012:

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Question time on the FM website. Post your questions and answers!

Summary: It’s time again for question time — “ask the mineshaft”. In the comments post your questions about geopolitics. And post your answers to other people’s questions.  This is a community exercise, from the German “Gemeinschaft” (see Wikipedia).

Contents

  1. How do open source projects & businesses fare in the Boydian world of competition, rate of change, etc?
  2. Why was the consulate in Benghazi attacked?
  3. What’s the status of peak oil?
  4. Will the Israel-Gaza situation escalate?
  5. If one could “rally” the American people to address any one issue in the US, which would be the most pressing?
  6. What can Nietzsche tell us about America?
  7. Why did cell phones go dead after Hurricane Sandy?
  8. More about a solar flare’s effect on the US power grid.
  9. Brilliant question: E puribus unum was our unofficial motto until Congress adopted In God we trust in 1956. Does this show a shift of our attitudes towards both the rest of the world, and ourselves?
  10. ______

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Understanding our political system: the how-to guide by its builders

Summary: Rarely does the news media run an article about our history that explains much about today’s America. Here’s the exception, from The New Yorker, about the origins of political consulting — and the formation of our current political system.  It was built by people who understand our weaknesses. We must understand it before planning reforms, and strengthen our minds in order to succeed.

The Founders, from The New Yorker, 9/24/2012

Excerpt from “The Lie Factory – How politics became a business” by Jill Lepore, The New Yorker, 24 September 2012.  These are just snippets from the exhaustively researched, well-written, and timely article (the quality of article that built The New Yorker’s reputation).

The opening section describes Upton Sinclair, the Democratic Party’s candidate for Governor of California in 1934, running on the slogan EPIC: “End Poverty in California”. Afterwards he wrote I, Candidate for Governor, and How I Got Licked.

In it, Sinclair described how, immediately after the Democratic Convention, the Los Angeles Times began running on its front page a box with an Upton Sinclair quotation in it, a practice that the paper continued, every day, for six weeks, until the opening of the polls. “Reading these boxes day after day,” Sinclair wrote, “I made up my mind that the election was lost.”

Sinclair got licked, he said, because the opposition ran what he called a Lie Factory. “I was told they had a dozen men searching the libraries and reading every word I had ever published.” They’d find lines he’d written, speeches of fictional characters in novels, and stick them in the paper, as if Sinclair had said them. “They had a staff of political chemists at work, preparing poisons to be let loose in the California atmosphere on every one of a hundred mornings.”

Actually, they had, at the time, a staff of only two, and the company wasn’t called the Lie Factory. It was called Campaigns, Inc …  the first political-consulting firm in the history of the world, founded in 1933 by Clem Whitaker and Leone Baxter.

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At the Tampa Convention Right & Left display our great illness: Tribalism

Summary: Today we have another weekend discussion post. It’s a summary of primary theme driving my posts, the new tribalism of the American people. It probably makes impossible reform of our society and salvage of the Second Republic. I have no idea how to do more than describe it.  Please post your thoughts about this in the comments, especially about its origins and possible cures.

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The self-righteous debunking by the Left of the Right’s lies at Tampa display no love of truth. Instead they are another futile volley of words in the vain battles that characterize our post-fact society. These factual rebuttals, however accurate or well-delivered, change no minds on the Right, whose members are indoctrinated to ignore input from impure sources.

We see the exact same dynamic at work in the climate change propaganda campaigns.   Here the Left displays the same contempt for fact — ripping research findings out of context, exaggerating their magnitude and certainty, and tribalism (good climate scientists sound the alarms,  evil scientist are skeptical or have alternative theories).  Here the Right gains a feeling of superiority citing facts and authorities to which the Left remains blind.

Like all religious wars, both sides bask in their moral superiority — and rejoice in the ignorance and evil of their opponents.

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