Here is another insightful article from Stratfor about one of the most important geopolitical dangers to America. Hat tip on this from Zenpundit’s post on “The Colombianization of Mexico” (11 April 2009) — Excerpt:
Colombia went through a similar cycle, opportunistic criminal gangs taking advantage of the accelerating civil war between the Colombian government, FARC and ELN in order to kidnap 25,000 + people per year. We can speculate that this state of affairs, where the civilian population was being chronically terrorized, was a precursor to the formation of the AUC Loyalist paramilitaries by the small businessmen and big landowner class, and promptly began clearing rural areas and small towns of rebels, rebel sympathizers, habitual criminals and family members of the same by savagely killing them off. I will wager that Mexico is going to hit this phase in less than a year.
Summary of previous analysis about Mexico on the FM site (see the links at the end for more information):
(1) In 2005 the cartels began killing police chiefs (example here), showing that the cartels were growing beyond the government’s control. In 2007 they began killing Army officers. Now they torture and kill generals, and the violence has crossed the border into America (see this).
(2) The global depression will make things worse, esp later this year when their forward sales of oil expire — and they must live on declining production of $40 oil. However bad things are in Mexico, the future looks far more grim. For a snapshot, see “Mexico economy: Sinking deeper“, Economist Intelligence Unit, 31 Mexico 2009.
(3) As Martin van Creveld said over a decade ago, Mexico might turn out to be the greatest threat to America’s sovereignty that we have even encountered.
I recommend reading this: “Mexico: The Third War“, Fred Burton and Scott Stewart, Stratfor, 18 February 2009 — Reposted in full with the permission of Stratfor.
Mexico has pretty much always been a rough-and-tumble place. In recent years, however, the security environment has deteriorated rapidly, and parts of the country have become incredibly violent. It is now common to see military weaponry such as fragmentation grenades and assault rifles used almost daily in attacks.
In fact, just last week we noted two separate strings of grenade attacksdirected against police in Durango and Michoacan states. In the Michoacan incident, police in Uruapan and Lazaro Cardenas were targeted by three grenade attacks during a 12-hour period. Then on Feb. 17, a major firefight occurred just across the border from the United States in Reynosa, when Mexican authorities attempted to apprehend several armed men seen riding in a vehicle. The men fled to a nearby residence and engaged the pursuing police with gunfire, hand grenades and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). After the incident, in which fivecartel gunmen were killed and several gunmen, cops, soldiers and civilians were wounded, authorities recovered a 60 mm mortar, five RPG rounds and two fragmentation grenades.
Make no mistake, considering the military weapons now being used in Mexico and the number of deaths involved, the country is in the middle of a war. In fact, there are actually three concurrent wars being waged in Mexico involving the Mexican drug cartels.