Summary: The climate wars among the public (laymen) show how poorly we see our world. Here we look at an example displaying many of these problems: the “two minute hates” we substitute for rational debate, how ideology blinds us to the physical world, and our disinterest in the wonderful findings of climate science.
“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next 5 to 7 years.”
— Al Gore at the UN Climate Change Conference, 14 December 2009 (video here). He cited Wieslaw Maslowski as the source; Prof Maslowski denied making so specific a prediction (London Times, 15 December 2009). Gore also gave this forecast in 2007 and 2008, in bolder form.
- The heretics
- What does this mean?
- Update: about the 2014-15 season
- Research about the arctic ice
- Research about the antarctic ice
- For More Information
- Coal’s contribution to arctic melting
(1) The heretics
The same year as Gore made this prediction Michael Asher, (Daily Tech) and George Will (Washington Post) dared to question the Left’s “arctic ice disappearing” narrative – predictions that the arctic would be ice-free soon, continuing the melt since start of satellite data in 1979 (during the 1970s cold snap). This followed the 2007 low in arctic sea ice, and predictions of a “death spiral” and “Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′”
Asher and Will were met with the Left’s standard “2 minute hate” — smears, mockery, rebuttals to what Asher and Will didn’t say. They did everything but recommend Will and Asher be chopped up and fed to the poor. This is comic opera, not science; of interest as demonstrations why the Left continues to lose influence in US politics.
These fluctuations in sea ice are too brief to tell us anything about climate (both Left and Right trumpet weather as climate when it suits them). But having said that, let’s see what the polar sea ice tells us.
May Arctic Sea Ice extent from the National Snow & Ice Data Center — 2002 to 2014, during the hysteria. No melting (the satellite data from 1979-2001 shows the extent shrinking from almost 20% above the 1981-2010 mean).
Here’s a broader look at this year’s trend vs variability since 1979. So far this year’s seasonal melt lies in the average range.