Summary: Again we attempt to recalibrate our vision of America, adjusting for its incredible rate of decline. People watching its power and money will find the probable future crash a surprise. Not so those watching the decay of its vision, heart, and mind.
The secondary goal of the FM website is to help readers better understand our world, especially current trends and likely futures. A look at the Past Predictions (right ones) and Smackdowns (wrong ones) pages shows three things about the FM website.
(1) We provide a stream of accurate predictions about the near future, on a wide range of subjects, such as correctly forecasting the outcome of our wars, peak oil (2005 was not the peak, but the cornucopians were also wrong), the debate about climate science (much bad analysis and failure to follow norms of scientific procedure).
America here and now
Waging war requires the State to mobilize resources, the most important resource being the people. Since every action creates a reaction, the process of war shapes the people and the nation, its effects lasting far after the war ends. Now, almost 11 years after 9-11, we can see several effects of our long war. It’s exacerbated existing ailments in US society. As a result we’re rotting, becoming a danger to ourselves and the world. It’s happening faster than I imagined possible.
So far the process has continued with few reactions from our enemies and friends. Even in the Internet age people change their opinions only slowly. Our actions carve away the image of America built during the 20th century, leaving a much darker remnant. We see ourselves as the benign global hegemon, so the coming loss of both leadership and respect will hit us hard.