About attacking Libya – let’s give this more thought than we did Afghanistan and Iraq

Summary:  Large military forces give us a greater range of options — but they also narrow our options.  The existence of arms creates pressure to use them.  Our ability to intervene creates a feeling of responsibility.  Deaths following our failure to intervene become our fault (see Lang’s comments below).  Yet military strength provides neither the wisdom or the local knowledge to use it — both scarce in the US, as our post-WWII history of intervention shows.  This post examines both sides of the debate, with some messages from Libya and historical reminders.  The comments have excerpts and links to new articles of interest about Libya.

O volcano of rage
uniter of Arabs
Boil upon the plains
Foam upon the sands
Engulf them from the hills and the cannons and the trenches
With rage …
— “Burkan al-Ghadab”  (source:  NYRB)

Our geopolitical leaders feel strong sympathy for the people of Libya.  All those Moslems sitting on a sea of oil — they must need our help to overthrow Gaddafi and establish a new regime.  A no-fly zone is the first chip in the game.  Probably followed by Special Forces to provide arms and training (plus money and personal assistance to those leaders that best fit our needs).  Otherwise they might choose inappropriate leaders.

In 1967 General Lansdale explained to Richard Nixon the value of honest elections for South Vietnam.  Nixon’s reply has been a precept of US policy since WWII:  “Oh sure, honest, yes, honest, that’s right — so as you win.”  (From David Halberstam’s The Best and the Brightest)

Contents

1. Calls for military intervention: no-fly zones and moving forces to Libya
2. Notes of realism about intervention from DoD
3. The Libyans speak
4. The American people have good sense about these events
5. A look at the history of the Middle East
6. For more information

(1)  Calls for military intervention:  no-fly zones and moving forces to Libya

Here are a few of the many calls to move our forces into position.  Then the hawks will pick an occasion to press for intervention.  As always, no mention of costs or risks (real hegemons never ask such questions, until they go broke).  Perhaps it will be easy, quickly ended, and cheap.  Our experience in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq remind us of the uncertainties of war.

Joe Lieberman (Senator, Independent, CT), CNN’s Face the Nation, 27 February 2011:

This is a real moment of choice for the international community. Believe me, what we are hearing is the Arab world is watching. Will the future be the peaceful democratic revolution that’s occurred in Egypt leading to democracy or will the world stand by and allow a leader like Gadhafi to slaughter his people? I’m glad there are sanctions being applied and some pressure morally at least and some economic put on Gadhafi, but honestly I think the world has to do more.

I begin with the imposition of a no-fly zone so that Gadhafi can’t be attacking his own people from the air or flying in more mercenaries. I think we ought to recognize the opposition provisional government as the legitimate government of Libya and we that ought to give that government certainly humanitarian assistance and military arms, not to go in on the ground ourselves but to give them the wherewithal to fight on behalf of the people of Libya against a really cruel dictator.

… The fact is now is the time for action, not just statements. The sanctions that were adopted but unilaterally by the United States and now by the U.S. really have some effect on the people in the top positions in the Libyan government and hopefully it will lead them to think twice. But the kinds of tangible support, no-fly zone, recognition of the revolutionary government, the citizens government and support for them with both humanitarian assistance and I would provide them with arms.

Pat Lang (Colonel, Special Forces, retired):

“If this turns into a bloodbath just remember how reluctant you were to do anything effective.”  (Source)

“I hope you all will remember some of this when MQ starts shooting the defeated rebels in sports stadiums.” (Source)

“What we should do is put in a few dozen Green Berets in civilian clothes to help the rebels organize themselves to take Tripoli. I would agree that a regular US troop presence on the ground would be counter-productive. Remember the SF guys on horses who worked with the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan at the beginning?  That is the model.”  (Source)

— FM note:  I suspect CIA agents with bags of cash has as much or more impact than the SF in Afghanistan.  In Horse Soldiers: The Extraordinary Story of a Band of US Soldiers Who Rode to Victory in Afghanistan Doug Stanton alludes to the CIA buying support for the Northern Alliance (pages 37 and 57), but discusses neither the full scope of the project nor its relative contribution to overthrowing the Taliban.  Ditto for the other accounts I’ve read.

Some of the countless media interventions by our horde of professional non-governmental war-mongers:

Today the United States and our allies in Europe must take action in response to the unfolding crisis in Libya. With violence spiraling to new heights, and with the apparent willingness of the Qaddafi regime to use all weapons at its disposal against the Libyan people, we may be on the threshold of a moral and humanitarian catastrophe. Inaction, or slow and inadequate measures, may not only fail to stop the slaughter in Libya but will cast doubt on the commitment of the United States and Europe to basic principles of human rights and freedoms.
— Letter to President Obama by 45 former U.S. government officials and pro-war activists

“Intervening is a moral obligation for the United States — a moral obligation we’ve all too often ignored in similar cases in the past, with disastrous consequences. This time we need to get it right. It’s time for President Obama to lead.”
— Jamie Fly (Executive Director, Foreign Policy Initiative), op-ed in USA Today, 3 March 2011

(2)  Notes of realism about intervention from DoD

(a) General Mattis (commander, US Central Command), Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, 1 March 2011 — Webcast here.  Excerpt:

“My military opinion is that it would be challenging,  You would have to remove air defense capability in order to establish a no-fly zone, so no illusions here. It would be a military operation. It wouldn’t be just telling people not to fly airplanes.”

(b) SecDef Gates, House Appropriations Committee, 2 March 2011:

“There is a lot of, frankly, loose talk about some of these military options. Let’s just call a spade a spade. A no-fly zone begins with an attack on Libya to destroy the air defences. That’s the way you do a no-fly zone. Then you can fly planes around the country and not worry about our guys being shot down. That is the way it starts.”

(c) DoD Press Conference, 1 March 2011

SECEF GATES: Well, first of all, I have directed several Navy ships to the Mediterranean. The USS Kearsarge and the [USS] Ponce will be entering the Mediterranean shortly and will provide us a capability for both emergency evacuations and also for humanitarian relief.  About 1,400 Marines from the Kearsarge are serving in Afghanistan. And so we are sending about 400 Marines from the U.S. that will be in support of the Kearsarge’s mission.  So those are the actions that we have taken at this point. We’re obviously looking at a lot of options and contingencies. No decisions have been made on any other actions.

I would note that the U.N. Security Council resolution provides no authorization for the use of armed force. There is no unanimity within NATO for the use of armed force. And the kinds of options that have been talked about in the press and elsewhere also have their own consequences and second- and third-order effects. So they need to be considered very carefully.

… First of all, all of the options beyond the humanitarian assistance and evacuation are complex. And you know, the second and third-order consequences derive from the fact that they are complex. For example, if we move additional assets, what are the consequences of that for Afghanistan, for the Persian Gulf? And what other allies are prepared to work with us in some of these things?   I think those are some of the effects that we have to think about.

We also have to think about, frankly, the use of the U.S. military in another country in the Middle East. …

ADMIRAL MULLEN: And with respect to the no-fly zone specifically, it’s an extraordinarily complex operation to set up. It has been done historically. We did it in Iraq for many years, north and south. And certainly if we were to set it up, if that were something that was decided to do, we’d have to work our way through doing it in a safe manner and certainly not put ourselves in jeopardy in doing that.

(3)  The Libyans speak

The slowly emerging rebel leadership of Libya speaks. But will we listen?

(a) “Anti-Gaddafi figures say not contacting foreign govts“, Reuters, 27 February 2010 — “Opponents of Muammar Gaddafi based in eastern Libya said on Sunday they did not want any foreign intervention in the country and said they had not made contact with foreign governments”

(b) More strong statements from Libya:

“Our brothers in Tripoli say: “We are fine so far, we do not need help’. If they ask for help we are ready to move,” said General Ahmed el-Gatrani, one of most senior figures in the army in Benghazi which no longer swears allegiance to Gaddafi. … “We don’t need foreign help as we moved on our own, on orders from no one outside.” (Source: Reuters, 27 February 2011)

… a prominent human rights lawyer, Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga, held a news conference in Benghazi … he said politicians in the east were establishing a transitional council to manage daily life in the rebel-controlled areas until Gadhafi falls … the Libyan National Transitional Council. But the council has not yet been formed and he did not announce any of the members, except for himself as the spokesman. Ghoga was imprisoned just before Libya’s revolt began on Feb. 15.

As to the U.S. Senators’ offer of military help, Ghoga said no thanks. “We are against any foreign intervention or military intervention in our internal affairs,” Ghoga said. “This revolution will be completed by our people with the liberation of the rest of Libyan territory controlled by Gadhafi’s forces.”

… He said the council was not in touch with the rest of the world or planning military strategy, but just trying to coordinate the rebel cities and administrate daily life. “There has been no communication between the council with any outside government. After forming the full details of the council, it will decide which government (to talk to) and the nature of the contact.”  (Source:  AP, 27 February 2011)

(c) Sometimes “no” means no.  The Sunday Times reports that “Up to eight soldiers captured as they escorted a junior diplomat through rebel-held territory in the east of the country.”

The paper claims the unit was involved in a secret mission to put British diplomats in touch with rebels trying to topple Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. It says eight SAS men, in plain clothes but armed, were captured as they escorted the diplomat in eastern Libya. The paper claims the SAS soldiers were taken to Benghazi, the rebel stronghold, where they are being interrogated.  (Source:  BBC; see comment #1 for the full story)

(4)  The American people have good sense about these events

Per a Rasmussen poll on 21-22 February 2011, for all the news media’s saturation coverage of the war hawks’ views, the public remains skeptical.   We learn slowly, but we do learn.

#2 — Generally speaking, will a change in the government of any of these Arab countries be good for the United States, bad for the United States or will it have no impact on the United States?

• 29% will be good for the United States,
• 33% — will be bad for America,
• 12% –will have no impact,
• 26%– are not sure what to expect.

#3 — Should the United States get more directly involved in the political situation in these Arab countries or leave the situation alone?

• 67% — the United States should leave the situation in the Arab countries alone,
• 17% — the United States should get more directly involved in the political situation there,
• 17% — are not sure.

(5)  A look at the history of the Middle East

“The Post-Western Middle East“, Mark Steyn, 23 February 2011 — Excerpt:

By the time the dust settles, what emerges in the Gulf monarchies is likely to be regimes far friendlier to Iran, if not in fact wholly owned Iranian subsidiaries. What emerges in Egypt is likely to be a regime far more hostile to Israel. There are different local factors in play from the Mahgreb to the Shatt al-Arab, but if you want a shorthand for the region as a whole, think of it this way: It’s the dawn of the post-western Middle East.

There are two phases to recent Arab history. The modern Middle East was an Anglo-French concoction, cooked up by London and Paris somewhat haphazardly after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. In the waning of British and French imperial power after World War Two, Washington and Moscow stepped into the breach, in many cases replacing sputtering monarchies with strongmen of a secular pan-Arab nationalist bent.

… Looking at it from theirs, the regimes are belatedly aligning themselves with demographic reality. Across the last half-century, the chancelleries of the great powers invested their effort in maintaining “stability”: The result was that governments were superficially stable while their populations wholly transformed – and a huge chasm opened up between an ever more Islamic populace and the regimes they’re ruled by. Say what you like about Mubarak but he wasn’t into female genital mutilation. Unfortunately for him, his people were – or at any rate the menfolk were. So he banned it. Because he’s a dictator, and what he says goes, right? And the net result of that ban is that, on the day he fell, precisely 91 per cent of the country’s women were estimated to have undergone FGM: Long before the “Facebook Revolution”, Egypt voted with its clitorises {see “Female Genital Mutilation – The Facts, Program for Applied Technology in Health (PATH), undated; and “Female Genital Mutilation – The Facts“, UK brochure, 2010}

Likewise, say what you like about Colonel Gaddafi but a guy who hires as bodyguards his own personal detachment of Austin Powers fembots is unlikely to be hung up on the small print of this or that hadith. The trajectory we’re now on has less to do with “social media” than with Monday’s fatwa by Imam Qaradawi, Egypt’s Khomeini wannabe, calling for the assassination of Gaddafi.  The eminent scholar dismisses the Gaddafi clan as “swords of pre-Islamic ignorance” – which shows you how he regards what’s underway:  The anciens régimes were “pre-Islamic”, which means that what follows will be … more Islamic.

… The Egyptian royal house (descended from Albanians) was nobody’s idea of a punctilious constitutional monarchy, and Jews there had a rough couple of years in the 1940s. But the Kingdom of Egypt was a better deal than anything that followed. The CIA thought so little of Farouk that their plan to depose him was codenamed “Operation Fat Fucker”. Ha-ha. The fuckers they replaced him with had the last laugh. Nasser rounded up Jews for “Zionist activities”, removed them from Parliament, confiscated their businesses, and closed down their newspapers.

The Middle East got worse. The Anglo-French-installed monarchies of the mid-20th century were less bad than the Russo-American-backed dictators of the late 20th century. As for the early 21st, the new Middle East will be friendlier to the Muslim Brotherhood and friendlier to Iran – and less friendly to western interests than at any time since the discovery of oil.

(6)  Military intervention would violate an old and wise policy of America

John Quincy Adams said it best on 4 July 1821 to the House of Representatives:

… if the wise and learned philosophers of the elder world…  should find their hearts disposed to enquire what has America done for the benefit of mankind?  Let our answer be this: America … has held forth to them the hand of honest friendship, of equal freedom, of generous reciprocity.

• She has uniformly spoken among them … the language of equal liberty, of equal justice, and of equal rights.
• She has … respected the independence of other nations while asserting and maintaining her own.
• She has abstained from interference in the concerns of others, even when conflict has been for principles to which she clings …

Wherever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will commend the general cause by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example.

She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force.

(6)  For more information

About Libya: 

• Libya’s people need uninvited infidel foreigners to save them!, 1 March 2011
• “You just have not seen enough people bleed to death”, 8 March 2011

About Egypt:

• “The Revolution Is Not Yet Over”, Yasmine El Rashidi, blog of the New York Review of Books, 23 February 2011
• “Volcano of Rage“, Max Rodenbeck, New York Review of Books, 24 February 2011
• Important information about the riots in Egypt, FM website, 30 January 2011
• Why do we fear the rioters in Egypt?, FM website,30 January 2011
• Sources of information about the situation in Egypt, FM website, 6 February 2011

Other posts about Islam:

1. America’s Most Dangerous Enemy, 1 March 2006
2. Are islamic extremists like the anarchists?, 14 December 2009
3. Hatred and fear of Islam – of Moslems – is understandable. But are there hidden forces at work?, 3 August 2010
4. Should we fear that religion whose believers have killed so many people?, 4 August 2010

See posts about al Qaeda here.