Summary: The Left can dominate US politics for the next generation. They have built the coalition. Obama showed them how to rule. They only need a leader.
The Left has assembled a cohesive bloc of voters: people of color, immigrants, gays, hard-core leftists, radical feminists, single mothers, and fragments of their long-ago core (e.g., union workers and their families). These people have passion about their politics, giving them power greater than the other elements of the Democratic Party’s coalition of voters. Social trends mean that their numbers will grow each year. That, plus the Left’s funding from rich supporters and foundations, puts them close to controlling the Democratic Party – and dominating US politics.
But the Democratic Party’s opportunity comes courtesy of the Republican Party. In their ten years of rule in Washington, they have run their standard playbook. They have ballooned the deficit by tax cuts for the rich and corporations, deregulated corporations – reducing protections for workers, allowing more pollution, waving through mergers, crushing unions – and boosting spending on the military far beyond anything required to defend America.
As Team Trump has shown in the past two years, they have little interest in fighting the Left on popular issues. No reforms to Obamacare – making it better. No border wall. No throttling back of our mad foreign wars. Just a stream of entertaining tweets, combining ignorance and lies.
The GOP has not made themselves a broadly attractive alternative party. All the Democrats need to win is a reasonably plausible president, one that their dominance of the news media can transform into a Great Leader in the public’s eyes. They failed to do this in 2016. The large roster of candidates for 2020 looks even weaker.
Obama shows the Democrats how to rule
Obamacare shows the Democrat’s path to victory. Our health care system delivers similar results to those of our peers, with narrower coverage – at 2x to 3x the cost. A rational government would copy the best aspects of our peers’ systems, and use the savings to extend coverage. But this is America, and our sclerotic politics has proven incapable of reform.
Truman proposed universal health care in 1945. Others have attempted it with the same results. Coverage was expanded with Medicare and Medicaid. But universal coverage without reforming its wasteful ways was considered impossible.
The health care sector has grown fat. Hospitals and clinics are temples among the rundown infrastructure of America’s cities. Healthcare executives and senior doctors are princes in our cities. Efforts to rationalize the sector fell before its immense political power.
Obama’s solution demonstrated that America is a decaying state. He just extended coverage and ignored the cost. After all, a cost-be-damned policy made the Department of Defense supreme among government agencies. Combined with the GOP’s tax cuts for the rich, the fiscal deficits in the next generation will be mind-blowing (driven by the Boomers’ retiring).
Now the Left plans to run this play again
They have announced an initiative to follow ObamaCare: the Green New Deal, Leftist dreams given form. It would be a geyser of money, to be distributed to their supporters (old and new) from sea to sea. They are preparing to push this through by purging centrists among the Democrat’s elected officials, so that they can move more boldly than in the Obama era. It could be the capstone to a new political coalition to run America.
Little stands in the Left’s way if they run this play again – except that many on the Left are quite bonkers. Time will tell if that prevents them from gaining office.
This is a follow-up to the key insight: the Left hates America and will destroy it.
For More Information
Ideas! For shopping ideas see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
Patrick Buchanan asks if 2020 Will Be the Beginning of a Socialist America?
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about the left-wing of US politics, about ObamaCare, about reforming America: steps to new politics, and especially these …
- Visions of America if the Left wins.
- The Democrats will open the borders & make a New America.
- The Left goes full open borders, changing America forever.
- The Left pushes America down a slippery slope – about reckless social engineering.
Useful books explaining what happened to America
I have not found a good book explaining what happened to the Left, causing its hatred of America. These are the best I have found, looking at our politics.
Listen, Liberal: Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?
The Party Is Over: How Republicans Went Crazy, Democrats Became Useless, and the Middle Class Got Shafted
Schumpeter, in his classic work Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, predicted, perhaps uncannily, perhaps just intelligently, that socialism would eventually win in advanced capitalist countries (The United States) because since capitalism and freedom lead to unequal results, and since people would forget what horse they rode in on (obviously a bit more complex than that, but it captures the gist) that people would eventually choose “socialism.” (if you can get stuff for free, why would you not take it?)
It is a sad commentary that the democrats believe that while citizens under the age of 21 have not yet matured enough to own a rifle, but that citizens as young as 16 are capable of wielding a vote. All it takes is 5 minutes on just about any late night television show with a “man on the street” interviewer asking basic questions regarding any topic of the day, that our nation is made up of a large collection of idiots, mostly uneducated, even if they are literate.
When your point of political discussion is the latest joke on Jimmie Kimmel, or the parroting of some idiocy from The View, and where a succession of students at YALE, of all places, told one of such interviewers that it would be a good idea to repeal the first amendment (they actually signed a petition to do so, in fact), this is what you get. When your mainstream media publishes clearly biased political opinion as fact, and essentially inaccurate news stories also as fact and then excuses it not because it was inaccurate, but it was real because “it could have happened,” this is what you get. I would prepare a second passport to somewhere and get ready to leave for someplace better, although i am not sure where that would be.
Yale students sign ‘petition’ to repeal the first amendment- FYI:
In sixty minutes he got 50 signatures… at Yale… what else can one say except “what hope is there?”
State of the Union. From The Federalist: “Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Okay?” by David Marcus.
Ron,
That is an interesting article. Marcus doesn’t answer his question, perhaps because it is obvious. She’s OK and having a ball! We’re the ones that need therapy – as he explains.
The GOP began this fad for fools in high office by running Sarah Palin as VP to the sickly old McCain. That we applaud is a red-alarm indicator of our decay as a people. We want entertainment, not leaders.
Good post Larry!
I have just a little quarrel with this:
“A rational government would copy the best aspects of our peers’ systems, and use the savings to extend coverage. But this is America, and our sclerotic politics has proven incapable of reform.”
The key is “Rational Government.” I don’t think there are many ‘peers’ who would allow Big Pharma, Insurance Co’s and such to bribe their legislators to the ‘absurd’ point of that in the US. (Hospital groups and Medical associations are also part of that, as you noted.)
So the change must first include the overhaul of electoral funding and limits on the relevant lobbies…
Jako,
“So the change must first include the overhaul of electoral funding and limits on the relevant lobbies…”
Your naivety and unawareness of other nations’ experience is touching, and indicative of why public policy in America has become a dog’s breakfast. Passing laws is not magic. Your confidence that one more law will do the trick is sad, even pitiful. Other nations have such laws – which like ours have totally failed to restrain the power of their elites.
The only mechanism which has proven able to do so (imperfectly, as always) is an aware and involved citizenry. To do so they don’t need the billion laws that enmesh America in paperwork. Look to our past for examples.
Thanks for the explanation Larry!
True, incidence of political corruption is widespread:
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/collections/political-turbulence
But nowhere in the world it is as striking as in the US.
BTW, an OVERHAUL may stipulate a bit more involved change than adding another “law”…
“The only mechanism which has proven able to do so (imperfectly, as always) is an aware and involved citizenry.”
To borrow from another comment (thank you Barry!):
“All it takes is 5 minutes on just about any late night television show with a “man on the street” interviewer asking basic questions regarding any topic of the day, that our nation is made up of a large collection of idiots, mostly uneducated, even if they are literate.”
Therefore, there’s no hope…
Jako,
“But nowhere in the world it is as striking as in the US.”
Got to be one of the most absurd things said in the 60 thousand comments here. A combo of ignorance and nuttiness. You need to travel. Or read something other than Leftist propaganda (the Institute for New Economic Thinking was founded by George Soros’ money).
“…they have little interest in fighting the Left on popular issues.” Yes. Just divide and conquer, perpetual war, etc. Neither party represents the average Joe and Jane.
A viable free press, not those which are merely propaganda rags for either party, can certainly cast light on the way to a better tomorrow for the citizens who care about our Constitution and our country.
Chad,
“for the citizens who care about our Constitution and our country.”
The press is a business, like any other. When there are enough of those people to be a market, then journalists will arise to fill it.
This might be happening today. A small sign might be the rise of boutique press like Glenn Greenwald at The Intercept.
allowing more pollution?
Huh? Are you equating getting rid of ridiculously intrusive regulations designed to increase government control with allowing more pollution?
” crushing unions”
Huh? Letting me have the choice to opt out of the union that spends most of my money on leftist politics and instead exercise my freedom of association as well as keep more of my own money equates to crushing unions?
Heresolong,
“Are you equating getting rid of ridiculously intrusive regulations designed to increase government control with allowing more pollution?”
I have lived to see government regulations clean up our waters and air. There are those who want to roll all that back, along with most of the New Deal.
“to crushing unions?”
No. Crushing unions is crushing unions.
“The Left has assembled a cohesive bloc of voters: people of color, immigrants, gays, hard-core leftists, radical feminists, single mothers, and fragments of their long-ago core (e.g., union workers and their families). These people have passion about their politics, giving them power greater than the other elements of the Democratic Party’s coalition of voters. Social trends mean that their numbers will grow each year. That, plus the Left’s funding from rich supporters and foundations, puts them close to controlling the Democratic Party – and dominating US politics.”
Growing and scary, but not at all cohesive because the each of its constituent groups has interests at odds with all the others. All these groups are a tenuous coalition held together by “Orange Man Bad”, and before that hatred of Chimpy Bushitler McHalliburton. Once they gain power and the Republicans are vanquished forever, they will fight among themselves with ever greater ferocity.
370H55v,
I agree in a large sense, and disagree in a small sense.
“All these groups are a tenuous coalition held together by “Orange Man Bad””
I disagree. That’s like belief that lightening rods cause thunderstorms. Trump is just the current focus of the Left, the subject of their four-year hate. But the Left coalition would be as strong without him. Note their power in Europe, without Trump.
“Once they gain power and the Republicans are vanquished forever, they will fight among themselves with ever greater ferocity.”
That’s the big insight. Hate forms only a weak bond in a coalition. The Left’s coalition will fight their common enemy – which is us (western civ, masculinity, capitalism) not just the Republicans. But eventually there will be an endgame – perhaps. On the other hand, the chaos resulting from their actions might postpone both the victory dance and post-war struggle for dominance within the movement.
The strength of the Left in Europe is contingent on a homogeneous white European population. As that changes, we will see a much more alt-right white Europe, as we will see the same here–particularly when leftist whites have few or no children.
370H55V,
“As that changes, we will see a much more alt-right white Europe”
That’s a common forecast (e.g., William Lind’s). I’m skeptical. When the spirit is broken, people will passively accept change without limit. At some point, perhaps already passed by much of Western Europe, it will be too late to do more than burn their houses down in protest to the already done.
A charismatic leader would be a benefit to them, of course. But it’s not a necessity. They almost won in 2016 with Hillary Bleeping Clinton. She got several million more votes than Trump did, but those votes were maldistributed. Trump was something of a charismatic leader on the other side. Such charisma as he had has been dissipated due to his pandering to the financial class and the neocons. At this point, it’s hard to see how the Dems can lose. It’s possible that a nonwhite race-baiter such as Kamala Harris could scare enough of the normie Dems into staying home so that the Repub wins. But so what if the Repub wins? What have the Repubs done for us in the past sixty years?
M Blanc,
(1) “A charismatic leader would be a benefit to them, of course. But it’s not a necessity.”
I didn’t say anything about charism. I said “All the Democrats need to win is a reasonably plausible president.” Competence, experience, temperment – the usual things sane people look for when hiring – but is lacking from most of the 21 candidates now running in the Dem race.
(2) “At this point, it’s hard to see how the Dems can lose.”
Some of those running for the Dem nomination will rightly terrify rational voters. The Leftist platform the Dems are likely to adopt might also do so: reparations, open borders, the Green New Deal (massive social engineering), etc.
(3) “What have the Repubs done for us in the past sixty years?”
I think the GOP has done as much for us as the Dems since 1958. The biggest accomplishment in that period is, imo, the Civil Rights bills. They were signed by a Democratic President, but in Congress a higher fraction of Republicans voted for them than Democrats (numbers here). The second most liberal President since WWII (in terms of accomplishments) was a Republican – Richard Nixon (details here).
(4) “Trump was something of a charismatic leader on the other side.”
“Charisma” in the modern sense is mostly bs. At best, it is a trait child-like subjects seek to provide excitement and entertainment. At worst, it shows weak people looking for a leader to command them. As Bloom said in Closing of the American Mind:
The GOP has done as much for us as the Dems since 1958. That pretty much says it all.
M Blanc,
I don’t understand what you are attempting to say. Please be clearer.
There is no left in American politics. Obama, and Clinton pretended to be left before being elected then turned sharp right. There has never been a left in American politics. Ralf Nader was as close as you would get. The trade unions were run by gangsters. Meeney was in the pay of the CIA and of course Hoffa was blatantly corrupt. There were of course some honest and decent unionists but the leaders were mostly corrupt. The McCarthy/Cohn witch hunt was an attack against democracy – not against Communism. There were a few American Communists but none were imprisoned.. The danger was the people daring to represent themselves and daring to demand wage reforms and justice. That’s why the government cracked down on the unions and ultimately destroyed them. The only left leaning members of Congress are the few genuine progressives of the Ocasio-Perez variety.
America is run by Zionist/Fascists. The entire government is corrupt – but the worst of them all – along with George H W Bush was the monstrous Barack Obama – who has attempted to not only subvert American values but to destroy the leadership of Donald trump because his favourite – with whom he used private emails and sold uranium 1 to Russia – Hillary Clinton got beat.
American politics is a sewer run by feral rats – pedophiles and Satan worshippers. The American people are without jobs and sleeping on the drug infested streets while the CIA traffics children to pedophiles in government and the bureaucracy.
Ken
“There is no left in American politics.”
You misunderstand the term. “Left” does not refer to a specific set of beliefs (as does “Islam”). Left-Right is a one-dimensional schema of politics, putting people relative to each other. It originated in the 1789 French National Assembly, and is still used 230 years later because it is simple and clear.
“America is run by Zionist/Fascists.”
Thank you for that analysis from the Delta Quadrant.