Summary: Today Martin van Creveld gives a timeline of modern history for the "Holy Land" , putting present events in a larger context. While the struggle with jihadists has overshadowed that between Irsrael and Palestine, it remains a front line in the dispute between the West and East. We ignore it at our peril. Turmoil … Continue reading Martin van Creveld: A history of the turmoil in the Holy Land (you can’t understand the action without it)
Summary: Here is a typically skillful but narrow analysis by Stratfor about the uses of terrorism, and especially by ISIS. It ignore the many examples of successful use of terrorism by insurgents (e.g., Zionists), and the s the often-decisive moral dimension of conflict (skillful terrorism can destroy a movement), I agree that ISIS will flame out … Continue reading Stratfor: A Weakening Islamic State Still Poses a Threat
Summary: Amidst the mad cries for reprisals to the Paris attacks, cries for a wider war and more bloodshed, a few voices speak rationally about the causes of the attacks, our foe's reasoning, and likely ways to end (rather than expand) the war. This essay by Ahmed Rashid is one of the best I've seen. … Continue reading Ahmed Rashid explains why ISIS attacked Paris & where they learned to do so
Summary: Climate alarmists have run wild with predictions about the "monster" "Godzilla" El Niño, their last throw of the dice before the COP-21 climate conference in Paris. Here is an example by Brad Plummer, with some debunking. The latest forecasts of the major climate models suggest that it will disappoint activists (but match NOAA's more … Continue reading Update on El Niño: will Gaia disappoint the climate activists?
A new era has begun for the US and global economy, trashing the simple rules of the post-WWII era. Instead of the business cycle (the “clock” analogy found in textbooks), we have secular stagnation interrupted by frequent bubbles alternating with bouts of debt deflation that are fought by massive government stimulus programs. Since we have … Continue reading Recession Watch: a turning Point in Unemployment Claims?