Will we repeat our mistakes in the Middle East & lose, or play defense & win?

Summary:  The West's post-9/11 wars in the Middle East have run down, but our involvement in Syria's civil war and the attacks by radical Islamists in American -- and the far larger Paris attacks -- have begun a new phase in this clash of civilizations. Before we attack, repeating the mistakes of the past 15 … Continue reading Will we repeat our mistakes in the Middle East & lose, or play defense & win?

The Fed’s Vice Chairman warns about us about the strong dollar

Stanley Fischer (Vice Chairman of the Fed) gave us a warning in a speech on Nov 12. He's someone we should list to. He reported that since July 2014 the US dollar has risen aprox 15% vs the currencies of our major trading partners, a "large, though not unprecedented" move. The Fed's econometric model show … Continue reading The Fed’s Vice Chairman warns about us about the strong dollar

How should we prepare, as a new era begins for the world economy?

Summary: Often the most important insight is the largest but least obvious aspect of a situation, hidden amidst the river of data that flows over us every day. Today the key thing to know is that we've entered a new world, once in which almost anything can happen. This creates new rules for individuals and … Continue reading How should we prepare, as a new era begins for the world economy?

What Will the US Do in a Recession? Look to Japan for Answers…

Summary: In a previous article I listed the powerful tools the US government would deploy during the next recession. Today we discuss something more important: will they work? We can look to Japan for an answer. Their great stagnation began with the 1989 crash, 11 years before the tech bubble burst and began America's new … Continue reading What Will the US Do in a Recession? Look to Japan for Answers…

After Paris: will we think first, or just repeat what’s already failed?

Summary: The call goes out just as it did after 9/11: kill, kill, kill -- more evidence that we've learned nothing from our expensive post-9/11 wars that have set the Middle East aflame. So we'll double down on stupid, testing to see if our great power can overcome our blindness, arrogance, and ignorance.  {1st of … Continue reading After Paris: will we think first, or just repeat what’s already failed?