Science & climate studies

Here are links to articles mentioned on the FM site about science and nature.  I believe this will be one of the major factors affecting geopolitics in the 21st century.  The primary message I hope people take from this list of articles — and the posts based upon them — is that there is debate among scientists about these things — and that the science is rapidly progressing to provide answers.

Most of these (not all) are from professional journals or technically oriented websites.  For more information see these related Reference Pages on the FM sites:

• Science and Nature – my articles.
• Science & Nature – general media articles
• Science & climate – the history of fears about the climate
  

This page lists the articles mentioned in posts on this site, and are only a tiny fraction of the climate change literature.

Contents

Click on the title to go to that section,

1. Basic reference sources
2. Global warming (specific)
3. Climate change (general)
4. About the effects of climate change
5. Climate change forecasts
6. The solar cycle
7. Extra-terrestrial factors affecting Earth’s climate & (including the sun)
8. Drivers of Earth’s climate other than greenhouse gases
9. The sociology and politics of climate science
10. The battle for release of climate science data and methods
11. The adequacy of climate data
12. The oceans’ temperature and sea level records
13. Sites providing current data and analysis about the Solar Cycle
14. About ice and sea ice

(1)   Basic reference sources

(a)  The #1 site IMO:  The Discovery of Global Warming, on the site of the American Institute of Physics — “A hypertext history of how scientists came to (partly) understand what people are doing to cause climate change.”

This Website created by Spencer Weart supplements his much shorter book, which tells the history of climate change research as a single story. On this Website you will find a more complete history in dozens of essays on separate topics, updated annually.

(b)  Lists of articles with full citations:

• A timeline of the science and politics of climate science (from the AIP site)
• A Bibliography by year of climate science research (also from AIP)

(c)  A classic, also relevant to climate science today:  “A meeting with Enrico Fermi“, Nature, 22 January 2004 – “How one intuitive physicist rescued a team from fruitless research.”

(2)   Articles specifically about global warming

1. “Meteorological trends (1991-2004) at Arctic Station, Central West Greenland (69º15’N) in a 130 years perspective“, Birger U. Hansen, Bo Elberling, Ole Humlum & Niels Nielsen, Danish Journal of Geography, volume 106(1), 2006
2. “Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts“, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong, Energy and Environment, vol 18 No. 7+8, 2007
3. “Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow”, Mark G. Flanner, Charles S. Zender, James T. Randerson, and Philip J. Rasch, Journal of Geophysical Research, June 2007 — Abstract.
4. “Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics”, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner, published at ARXIV (run by Cornell, co-funded by the NSF), July 2007, updated September 2007 (114 pages) — Abstract; full PDF.
5. “Was 1998 the Warmest Year of the Millennium: What do We Really Know?“, presentation by Steve McIntyre at Ohio State University, 16 May 2008
6. “Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere”, Ben Santer et al, International Journal of Climatology, Volume 28, Issue 13, 15 November 2008 — Abstract
7. “More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims“, Minority Staff Report, U. S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, 11 December 2008, 231 pages.
8. “Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year”, Eric J. Steig et al, Nature, 22 January 2009 — Abstract; full text.

(3)  Articles about climate change

1. “The Present Climatic Fluctuation” by Hans W. Ahlmann (namesake of the Ahlmann Glacier), of the Swedish Geographical Institute, published in The Geographical Journal, Volume 112, No. 4/6 (1948), pages 165-193 — I find no online copy.  See a summary here.
2. “Sea Level Changes in the Past, at Present and in the Near-Global Aspects Observations versus Models“, Final Conference for International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 437, September 2003
3. “Estimating future sea level changes from past records”, Global and Planetary Change, January 2004 — Abstract
4. “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years“, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, The National Academies (2006) — aka The North Report.
5. Report of the “Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction”, commissioned by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce (July 2006) — aka The Wegman Report.  Also note this excerpt from the Q&A session of the Dr. Edward J. Wegman’s testimony.
6.  “180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas Analysis by Chemical Methods“,  Ernst-Georg Beck, Energy & Environment, Volume 18 No. 2, 2007
7. “The role of statisticians in public policy debates over climate change“, Richard L. Smith, American Statistical Association – Section on Statistics & the Environment Newsletter (Spring 2007) — One of the too-few reports by statisticians on the climate change literature.
8. “Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth’s Climate System“, Stephen E. Schwartz, Brookhaven National Laboratory, June 2007
9. “On the credibility of climate predictions”, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mannassis & A. Christofides, Hydrological Sciences Journal, August 2008 – Also see this discussion of the article, and  this comment by the lead author about the difficulty of getting non-consensus papers published in climate science.
10. “Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector“, Mojib Latif et al, Nature, 1 May 2008 —  Summary: “World will ‘cool for the next decade’“
11.  “Abrupt Climate Change”, Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4″, U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research.  Participating Agencies:  USGS, NOAA and the NSF.  December 2008.  Home page is here.
12. ” Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year”, Steig, E.J., D.P. Schneider, S.D. Rutherford, M.E. Mann, J.C. Comiso, and D.T. Shindell. Nature, January 2009, pp 459-462. (Abstract for Steig 2009 here; full text here).
13. Sea Level Graphs from UC and some perspectives, Watts Up with That, 6 April 2009 — Excellent graphs, mostly from official sources.
14. “2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool“, Delia W. Oppo, Nature, 28 August 2009
15. “Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate“, David C. Frank et al. Nature, 28 January 2010 — Brief explanation here.
16. “Is There a Missing Low Cloud Feedback in Current Climate Models?“, Graeme Stephens, Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment News, February 2010
17. “Is Climate Really Predictable on 10-50 Year Time Scales?“, William R. Cotton, International Symposium on Prediction, July 2010
18. “Why Hasn’t Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?“, Stephen E. Schwartz et al, Journal of Climate, in press.
19. “Expert Judgments About Transient Climate Response To Alternative Future Trajectories Of Radiative Forcing“, Kirsten Zickfeld et al, Proceedings of the National Academy, in press

(4)   About the effects of climate change

1. “Lake Mead Could Be Dry by 2021“, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 12 February 2008
2. “Why the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are Not Collapsing“, Cliff Oilier and Colin Pain, AIG News (Australian Institute of Geoscientists), August 2009
3. “Marine Reserves Enhance the Recovery of Corals on Caribbean Reefs“, Peter J. Mumby and Alastair R. Harborne (U of Exeter), PLoS ONE, 11 January 2010
4. “Tropical cyclones and climate change“, Thomas R. Knutson et al, Nature Geoscience, 21 February 2010 — For a brief description by Roger Pielke Jr. see here.

(5)  Climate change forecasts

1. “Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making“, K C Green, J S  Armstrong, and W Soon, International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 826–832 (2009)
2. “Evidence-based forecasting for climate change“, K C Green, J S  Armstrong, and W Soon, Working paper – not for citation, 2013

(6)  Articles about the solar cycle

1. “Predicting the Solar Activity Cycle” posted at The Sun Blog, run by the staff of the Solar-Stellar Spectrograph (SSS) program of the Lowell Observatory.
2. “Solar Cycle Number 22 (1986 – 1996) in Review“, Richard Thompson, posted at the site of the Ionospheric Prediction Service of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, no date.
3. “The Maunder Minimum“, John Eddy, Science, 18 June 1976 (free abstract; subscription only)
4. “The Maunder Minimum: A reappraisal“, John Eddy, Solar Physics, November 1983 (free abstract; subscription only)
5. “Sunspots may vanish by 2015“, William Livingston and Matthew Penn, National Solar Observatory, 2006 — Unpublished, 10 pages.
6. “‘Maverick’ sunspot heralds new solar cycle“, New Scientist, 7 January 2008.
7. “Sun Stays Sluggish as Weathermen Fight for Anti-Ice Age Funding“, Popular Mechanics, 6 February 2008
8. Where have all the sunspots gone?“, Anthony Watts, posted at Watts Up With That, 13 February 2008
9. “Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States“,  David Archibald, International Conference on Climate Change, March 2008.
10. “Severe Space Weather Events:  Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts“, National Academy of Sciences, May 2008 — The summary is here.
11. “The Deniers: Our spotless sun“, Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post Comment, 31 May 2008 — With the debate focused on a warming Earth, the icy consequences of a cooler future have not been considered”
12. “What’s Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing)“, NASA, 11 July 2008
13. “Still No Sunspot Action on the Sun“, Linda Moulton Howe, Earthfiles, 29 August 2008 — An interview with David Hathaway, solar physics team leader at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.
14. “The Sun remains in a magnetic funk“, Anthony Watts, posted at his blog Watts Up with That, 30 August 2008:
15. “Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low“, NASA, 23 September 2008
16. “Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age“, NASA, 30 September 2008
17. “Predictions of Solar Cycle 24“, William Dean Pesnel, Solar Physics, October 2008
18. “For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?“, J. A. Abreu, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. M. Tobias, N. O. Weiss, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 October 2008 — A non-technical summary is “Danger ahead as the Sun goes quiet“, New Scientist, 7 January 2009.
19. “History of Cycle 24 Predictions“, posted at Anthropogenic Solar Chaos, 8 November 2008
20. Presentations at the conference “Solar Activity during the onset of solar cycle 24“, Napa California, 8-12 December 2008 — presentations are posted here.
21. “Boundary Between Earth’s Upper Atmosphere And Space Has Moved To Extraordinarily Low Altitudes, NASA Instruments Document“, Science Daily, 16 December 2008
22. “A Giant Breach in Earth’s Magnetic Field“, NASA, 16 December 2008
23. Dr. Hathaway of NASA revises his solar cycle 24 forecasts, summary by Michael Ronayne, posted at the SolarCycle24 message board. 5 January 2009
24. “When is Minimum?“, Leif Svalgaard, updated February 2009
25. “Deep Solar Minimum“, NASA, 1 April 2009
26. “Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?“, William Livingston and Matthew Penn, EOS (of the American Geophysical Union), 28 July 2009
27. “Has the Sun’s Output Really Changed Significantly Since the Little Ice Age?“, Leif Svalgaard (Stanford University), 27 May 2010
28. “Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields“, Matthew Penn and William Livingston (National Solar Observatory), submitted to International Astronomical Union Symposium #273, 3 September 2010
29. “Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid“, JASON Defense Advisoy Panel, November 2011 — How might space weather affect the electric grid?
30. “The Long-term Variation of Solar Activity“, Leif Svalgaard (HEPL, Stanford University), presented at STEL, 16 January, 2012
31. “Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity“, I. G. Usoskin et al, Astronomy & Astrophysics, February 2014
32. “Revisiting the Sunspot Number“, Frédéric Clette, Leif Svalgaard, José M. Vaquero, and Edward W. Cliver, Space Science Reviews, December 2014 — Ungated copy here.
33. “The new Sunspot and Group Numbers: a full recalibration” by Frédéric Clette, Leif Svalgaard, José M. Vaquero, and Edward W. Cliver presented at the IAU’s XXIX General Assembly. in August 2015. Abstract here.

(7)  Extra-terrestrial factors affecting Earth’s climate & (including the sun)

1. “The Sun – Living With a Stormy Star“, National Geographic, July 2004 — Excellent introduction to our star.
2. “Solar Influences on Global Change“, National Research Council, 1994
3. “Solar history and human affairs“, John Eddy, Human Ecology, March 1994 (free abstract; subscription only)
4. “The sun-climate question: Is there a real connection?“, George C. Reid (NOAA), Report to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 1995
5. “Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage – a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships”, Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 59 (11) (1997) 1225-1232.  See here
6. “Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth’s Climate”,  Henrik Svensmark, Physical Review Letters, 30 November 1998 – Volume 81, Issue 22, 1997, pp. 5027-5030 — See here.
7. “Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage – a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships“, Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, July 1997
8. “Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth’s Climate“, Henrik Svensmark, Physical Review Letters, Vol. 81, pp. 5027-30, 1998
9. “Reply to comments on ‘Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage — a missing link in solar–climate relationships'”, Henrik Svensmark and Eigil-Friis-Christensen, Journal Of Atmospheric And Solar-terrestrial Physics, 2000 — See here.
10. “Cosmic rays and Earth’s Climate”, Henrik Svensmark, Space Science Review 93: 155-166, 2000 — See here.
11. “Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate“, Nigel Marsh and Henrik Svensmark, Space Science Review, Vol. 94, pp. 215-30, 2000
12. “Low Cloud Properties influenced by Cosmic Rays“, Nigel Marsh and Henrik Svensmark, Physical Review Letter, 4 December 2000, Volume 85, Issue 23, pp. 5004-5007.   See here.
13. “The Sun’s Chilly Impact on Earth“, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA), 6 December 2001 — Press release for Shindell et al 2001 (see following entry)
14. “Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago“, U Neff et al, Nature, 17 May 2001
15. “Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum“, Shindell, D.T., G.A. Schmidt, M.E. Mann, D. Rind, and A. Waple, Science, 7 December 2001  (NASA summary here)
16. “Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene“, Gerald Bond et al, Science, 7 December 2001
17. “Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites, and a Possible Climatic Connection“, Nir J. Shaviv, Physical Review Letters, 16 July 2002
18. “Solar Activity Over the Last 1150 Years: Does it Correlate with Climate?“, Usoskin I.G., Schussler M., Solanki S.K., Mursula K., In Proceedings of The 13th Cambridge Workshop on Cool Stars, Stellar Systems and the Sun”, (2005).
19. “Cave air temperature response to climate and solar and geomagnetic activity“, P. Stoeva and A. Stoev, Memorie della Societa Astronomica Italiana, 2005
20. “Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds”, R. Giles Harrison and David B. Stephenson, Proceedings of the Royal Society, 8 April 2006 — Abstract.  PDF of article.
21. “The Antarctic Climate Anomaly Explained by Galactic Cosmic Rays“, Henrik Svensmark, arXiv, 14 December 2006
22. “Experimental Evidence for the Role of Ions in Particle Nucleation under Atmospheric Conditions“, Henrik Svensmark et al, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Vol. 463, pp. 385-96, 2007
23. “Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges“, Henrik Svensmark, Astronomy and Geophysics (journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, London), February 2007
24. “Cosmic Rays and Climate“, Jasper Kirkby, Surveys in Geophysics, November 2007
25. “Ray of hope: Can the sun save us from global warming?“, The Independent, 5 December 2007 — “Could the Sun’s inactivity save us from global warming? David Whitehouse explains why solar disempower may be the key to combating climate change.”
26. The International Workshop “Solar Variability, Earth’s Climate and the Space Environment“, sponsored by NASA, held 1 – 6 June 2008 — See the abstracts of the papers presented.
27. “Global Climate Change: Is the Sun to blame?“, Sami K. Solanki, 3 June 2008 — From the June 2008 NASA conference.
28. “Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?”, I. R. G. Wilson A , C , B. D. Carter B and I. A. Waite B, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia, 26 June 2008 — Abstract.
29. “Solar activity and its influence on climate” C. de Jager (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research),  Neatherlands Journal of Geosciences, October 2008
30. “Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia“, Robert G.V. Baker, Geographical Research, December 2008, Pages 380 – 398.
31. “Solar Influence on Recurring Global, Decadal, Climate Cycles Recorded by Glacial Fluctuations, Ice Cores, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Historic Measurements Over the Past Millennium”, Don J. Easterbrook (Professor Emeritus in the Department of Geology at Western Washington U), the Fall meeting of  the American Geophysical Union, December 2008 — Abstract; discussion here.
32. “Is there a link between Earth’s magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation?“, Mads Faurschou Knudsen and Peter Riisager, Geology, January 2009
33. “Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data”, S. M. Osprey et al., Geophysical Research Letters, in press — See the press release from the National Centre for Atmospheric Sciece for details.
34. “ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model“, Scafetta N., R. C. Willson, Geophysial Research Letters, 3 March 2009
35. “A Lagged Warm Event–Like Response to Peaks in Solar Forcing in the Pacific Region“, Gerald A. Meehl et al, Journal of Climate, July 2009
36. “On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications“, Richard S. Lindzen and Yong-Sang Choi, 42nd session of the International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies, 19-23 August 2009
37. Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing“,  Gerald A. Meehl et al, Science, 28 August 2009
38. “Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change“, Nicola Scafetta, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestial Physics, December 2009
39. “Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?“, Mike Lockwood et al, Environmental Research Letters, April-June 2010
40. “Low solar activity is blamed for winter chill over Europe“, Rasmus E Benestad, Environmental Research Letters, April-June 2010
41. “Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications“, Nicola Scafetta, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestial Physics, August 2010
42. “Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes“, B. A. Laken, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 24 November 2010
43. “Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?“, Love, J. J., K. Mursula, V. C. Tsai, and D. M. Perkins, Geophysical Research Letters, 11 November 2011
44. “Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?“, J. A. Abreu et al, Astronomy & Astrophysics, December 2012
45. “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate“, National Academy of Science, 2012 — report on a workshop.
46. “GCR and ENSO trends in ISCCP-D2 low cloud properties”, Nigel Marsh and Henrik Svensmark, Journal of Geophysical Research, (In press) — See a preprint here.
47. “Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate “, Nigel Marsh and Henrik Svensmark, Space Science Review, (In press) — See a preprint here.
48. “Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications“, Nicola Scafetta (Free Electron Laser Laboratory, Duke U), Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, in press
49. “Evolution of Dst index, cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23“, L.Z. Biktash, Advances in Space Research, 15 December 2014
50. “Influence of cosmic-ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature“, Badruddin and O.P.M. Aslam, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, January 2015
51. “Correlation between solar activity and the local temperature of Antarctica during the past 11,000 years“, X.H. Zhao and .S. Feng, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, January 2015
52. “Solar forcing of Holocene summer sea-surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic” in Geology, March 2015.
53. “Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum“, Sara Ineson et al, Nature Communications, 23 June 2015.
54. “Correlation between the sunspot number and tropospheric refractivity in a tropical environment“, Najib Yusuf and B.G. Ayantunji, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, October 2015 — Finds no correlation.
55. “Bi-decadal solar influence on climate, mediated by near tropopause ozone“, N.A. Kilifarska, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, in press — Describes a new theory for solar influences.

(8)  About drivers of Earth’s climate other than greenhouse gases

1. “Volcanoes and Climate Change“, NASA (no date)
2. Multidecadal variability (MDV) in the Arctic and North Atlantic climate system, website of the International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks — Drivers of arctic climate.
3. “Atmospheric Aerosols: Increased Concentrations during the Last Decade”, James T. Peterson and Reid A. Bryson, Science, 4 October 1968 — Abstract only.
4. “Global Cooling?”, P E Damon and S M Kunen, Science, 6 August 1976 — (abstract)
5. “Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols“, Mark Z. Jacobson, Nature, 8 February 2001
6. “Soot More Culpable in Climate Warming Than Expected“, Scientific American, 23 December 2003
7. “Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos“, James Hansen and Larissa Nazarenko, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 13 January 2004
8. “Climate response of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon“, Serena H. Chung and John H. Seinfeld, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1 June 2005 — Free copy here.
9. “Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing“, T. Novakov, Journal of Geophysical Research, 8 November 2005 — Free copy here.
10. “Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow“, Mark G. Flanner at al, Journal of Geophysical Research, June 2007 — Free copy here.
11. “Impure as the Driven Snow“, Scientific American, 8 June 2007 — “Soot is a bigger problem than greenhouse gases in polar meltdown.”  This discusses Flanner et al, Journal of Geophysical Research, June 2007
12. “Climate change: Aerosols heat up“, Peter Pilewskie1, Nature, 2 August 2007 — Absract only.
13. “Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice“, S. V. Nghiem, Geophysical Research Letters, 4 October 2007 — Free copy here.
14. “Increasing solar heating of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas, 1979–2005: Attribution and role in the ice-albedo feedback“, Donald K. Perovich et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 11 October 2007 — Free copy here.
15. “Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon“, V. Ramanathan and G. Carmichae, Nature Geoscience, April 2008 — Free copy here.
16. “Summer retreat of Arctic sea ice: Role of summer winds“, Masayo Ogi, Geophysical Research Letters, 18 December 2008 — Free copy here.
17. “Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century”, Drew Shindell and Greg Faluvegi, Nature Geoscience, March 2009 — Abstract, NASA’s summary.
18. “Springtime warming and reduced snow cover from carbonaceous particles“, M. G. Flanner et al, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7 April 2009
19. “Two Natural Components of the Recent Climate Change“, Syun-Ichi Akasofu (International Arctic Research Center, U Alaska Fairbanks), 23 March 2009
20. “Black carbon aerosols and the third polar ice cap“, Menon et al, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 December 2009
21. “Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator“, Dirk Verschuren1 et al, Nature, 3 December 2009 — The Kilimanjaro glaciers are not melting due to global warming.
22. “Black soot and the survival of Tibetan glaciers“, Baiqing Xu et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 29 December 2009
23. “Contribution of Semi-Arid Forests to the Climate System“, Eyal Rotenberg and Dan Yakir, Science, 22 January 2010 —   Summary: “Desertification may have retarded global warming by as much as 20%“
24. “Is There a Missing Low Cloud Feedback in Current Climate Models?“, Graeme Stephens, Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment News, February 2010
25. “Influence of winter and summer surface wind anomalies on summer Arctic sea ice extent“, Masayo Ogi et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2 April 2010 — Free copy here.
26. “Black Carbon’s Grey Areas: Key Messages from a Yale Workshop”, Bidisha Banerjee, Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media, 13 July 2010
27. About the new paper:  “Short‐term effects of controlling fossil‐fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate Arctic ice, and air pollution health“, Mark Z. Jacobson, Journal of Geophysical Research, 29 July 2010
28. “Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening“, Martin Wild, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, January 2012 — “Recent research on the phenomenon of substantial decadal variation in sunlight received at Earth’s surface reveals far-reaching environmental implications and proposes a conceptual framework which ties it to prevailing atmospheric aerosol levels.”
29. “Black carbon larger cause of climate change than previously assessed“, Press Release about new study, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 15 January 2013
30. “Cleaner air: Brightening the pollution perspective?”, Colin O’Dowd, 19th International Conference on Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols, June 2013 — Abstract only.
31. “Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment“, T C Bond et al, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 16 June 2013
32. “Recent wind driven high sea ice export in the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea ice decline“, L. H. Smedsrud, et al, The Cryosphere Discussions, 5 May 2010 — General audience article here.

(9)  About the sociology and politics of climate science

1. “Nuclear winter: science and politics“, Brian Martin, Science and Public Policy, October 1988 — Excellent background description and bibliography.  Vital background to understand the global warning debate.
2. “Environmentalism as Religion“, Michael Crichton, speech at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco,15 September 2003
3. “Faith in Nature: Environmentalism as Religious Quest“, Mark R. Stoll (Prof History at Texas Tech U), H-Net Reviews, September 2004.
4. “Environmentalism as a religion“, Fernando Diaz Villanueva (author of Che Guevara), 22 March 2006
5. “Environmentalism as Religion“, John M. Ostrowski, posted at Lew Rockwell, 21 March 2007
6. “The Question of Global Warming“, Freeman Dyson (Wikipedia bio), The New York Review of Books, 12 June 2008
7. “Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions?“, Richard S. Lindzen (Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, MIT), 29 November 2008 — Conference paper, posted at arXiv.
8. An Egregious Example Of Biased News Reporting, Roger Pielke Sr, 15 February 2009
9. “Scientists must rein in misleading climate change claims“, Vicky Pope (head of Climate Change Advice at the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre), op-ed in the Guardian, 11 February 2009
10. “Bias in IPCC WGIII?, Part I“, Richard Tol (Prof, Economics of Climate Change at Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam), 3 March 2010
11. “Gray Literature in the IPCC TAR“, Andreas Bjurström, 5 March 2010 — “Bibliometric analysis “shows that the claim that the IPCC rely mainly on peer review scientific articles is true for working group 1, partly true for working group 2 and false for working group 3.”
12. “Swedes call out Jones on data availability“, press release from the Stockholm Initiative corrects false statement by Phil Jones to Parliament, 5 March 2010 — Swedish meteorological data is available to the public, not a valid excuse for Jones failure to honor Freedom of Information Act requests.

(10)  The battle for release of climate science data and methods

1. Ensuring the Utility and Integrity of Research Data in a Digital Age, Committee on Science, Engineering & Public Policy, National Academies of Science
2. “Data Archiving, Disclosure and Due Diligence”, Climate Audit
3. “Assuring the Integrity of Research Data“, Climate Audit, 23 April 2007
4. “Fortress CRU #2: Confidential Agent Ammann“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 20 June 2008.
5. “Fortress CRU“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 20 June 2008.
6. “Fortress Met Office“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 20 June 2008.
7. “Fortress Met Office continued“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 23 June 2008.
8. “E-Mail, “Personal” Records and Privacy“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 2 July 2008.
9. “Climate Audit and NOAA FOI Policy“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 3 July 2008.
10. “NOAA Response to March 2007 FOI Request“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 8 July 2008.
11. “CSIRO adopts Phil Jones’ Stonewall Tactic“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 15 July 2008.
12. “Openness & Government“, Shane Deichman, at MountainRunner, 26 July 2008
13. “Is Briffa Finally Cornered?“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 30 July 2008
14. “Emulating Mannian CPS“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 2 December 2008 – The struggle continues to get “hockey stick” Mann’s computer to code to work.  Only then can Mann’s work be replicated.  Odd that it appears in peer-reviewed journals; one wonders what “reviewed” means when the code does not run.
15.  “Mann et al 2008 – Another Error Notice“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 5 December 2008 — Another correction by Mann, who seems unable to credit his critics.
16. Peer review of scientific work – an inadequate basis for big public action — Documentation of McIntyre’s struggles to get key data released about 2 climate science articles.

(11)  Articles about the adequacy of climate data

1. United States and Global Data Integrity Issues“, Joseph D’Ale (CCM, AMS Fellow), Science and Public Policy Institute, 27 January 2009 (25 pages)
2. Article in Japanese by Junsei Kondo, Professor emeritus of Tohoku University with results of his survey of Japan’s stations (supposedly only 3 of the 100+ stations meet standard criteria for adequacy) (source).
3. Preliminary results of the SurfaceStation.org survy of USHCN; 67% completed — only 11% are in the top 2 categories.
4. Land surface temperature records — Discussed here, here, and at Surfacestations.org.
5. Ocean temperature records:  Discussed here and here.
6. Atmospheric temperature sensors (e.g., radiosonde data, inhomogeneous, ambiguous, and heavily adjusted.  Discussed here, and here.
7. Satellite data — An archive here.  Esp note here, here, here, here, and here.
8. Proxies (e.g., ice core samples) — Note these are only indirect measures of temperature.  Here is a large archive of discussions.
9. “OK, What Caused the Problem?“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 16 November 2008 — About the latest major error discovered in the latest GHCN (NASA0 – GISS (NOAA) glitch. Their response to notification of the error is as significant as the error itself.
10. “United States and Global Data Integrity Issues“, Joseph D’Aleo, Science and Public Policy Institute, 29 January 2009
11. “GIStemp – A Human View“, E.M.Smith, 9 November 2009 — A clear non-technical explanation of why the US surface temperature data (perhaps the world’s best) is unreliable

(12)  Articles about the ocean temperature and sea level records

See section 7 for studies about dark particles acellerating melting of ice caps.

Measuring changes in sea level:

1. Changing Adjustments to 19th Century Sea Surface Temperature, 19 June 2005
2. Sea Surface Temperature Adjustment #2, 24 June 2005
3. Buckets and Engines, 17 March 2007
4. Rasmus, the Chevalier and Bucket Adjustments, 23 December 2007
5. Nature “Discovers” Another Climate Audit Finding, 28 May 2008
6. Lost at Sea: the Search Party, 31 May 2008
7. Did Canada switch from Engine Inlets in 1926 Back to Buckets?, 1 June 2008

About changes in sea level:

1. “Sea Level Changes in the Past, at Present and in the Near-Global Aspects Observations versus Models“, Nils-Axel Mörner (see his Wikipedia bio), Final Conference for International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 437, September 2003
2. “Estimating future sea level changes from past records”, Nils-Axel Mörner, Global and Planetary Change, January 2004
3. “A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise“, John A. Church and Neil J. White, Geophysical Research Letters, 6 January 2006
4. “On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century“, S. J. Holgate, Geophysical Research Letters, 4 January 2007 — “The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century (2.03 ± 0.35 mm/yr 1904–1953), in comparison with the latter part (1.45 ± 0.34 mm/yr 1954–2003). The highest decadal rate of rise occurred in the decade centred on 1980 (5.31 mm/yr) with the lowest rate of rise occurring in the decade centred on 1964 (−1.49 mm/yr). Over the entire century the mean rate of change was 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/yr.”
5. “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise“, W. T. Pfeffer1 et at, Science, 5 September 2008
6. “Satellite derived sea level updated“, Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That, 5 December 2008 — “The short-term trend has been shrinking since 2005.”
7. “Despite popular opinion and calls to action, the Maldives are not being overrun by sea level rise“, Anthony Watts, 19 March 2009
8. “Rise of sea levels is ‘the greatest lie ever told’“, The Telegraph, 28 March 2009 — “The uncompromising verdict of Dr Mörner is that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but a colossal scare story.”
9. “Sea Level Graphs from UC and some perspectives“, Anthony Watts, 6 April 2009
10. “Microatoll record for large century-scale sea-level fluctuations in the mid-Holocene“, Ke-Fu Yu et al, Quaternary Research, May 2009 – Sea level 7050–6600 years ago was about 171 to 219 cm above the present level.
11. “Defying Predictions, Sea Level Rise Begins to Slow“, Michael Asher, DailyTech, 15 December 2009
12. “Sea-level rise: Ice-sheet uncertainty”, David H. Bromwich and Julien P. Nicolas, Nature Geoscience, September 2010 — Abstract here.  Free copy here.
13. “Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment“, Xiaoping Wu et al, Nature Geoscience, September 2010
14.  ”The dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the central pacific“, Arthur P. Webb and Paul S. Kench , Global and Planetary Change, in press — New Scientist article about this.
15. “California Sea Level Projected to Rise at Higher Rate Than Global Average“, press release for new National Academy of Sciences report, 22 June 2012 — “The sea level off most of California is expected to rise about one meter {39″} over the next century, an amount slightly higher than projected for global sea levels, and will likely increase damage to the state’s coast from storm surges and high waves …”
16. “Significant sea-level rise in a 2-degree warming world“, press release about “Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels“, Michiel Schaeffer et al, Nature Climate Change, 24 June 2012
17. “Sea Levels Rising Fast on U.S. East Coast“, National Geographic, 25 June 2012 — “Not clear whether human-caused global warming is to blame, experts say.” Based on “Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America“, Asbury H. Sallenger Jr. et al, Nature Climate Change, 24 June 2012.  Their extrapolations forecast a rise of sea level of 20-29 cm {8-11″} by 2100; which is 1.1″/year. The causes are uncertain; their forecast depends on the relative impact of natural cycles, aerosols and CO2.
18. “The evidence for sea-level rises in North Carolina“, New Scientist, 20 June 2012 — A sensationalized article about “Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia“, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 5 July 2011 — “Holgate says the rise could be as much as 1.5 metres {59”} by 2100, but he says that is ‘an extreme upper end’”. See the analysis of the NS article here.
19. “Elephant seals help uncover slower-than-expected Antarctic melting“, press release announcing “Two years of oceanic observations below the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica“, Tore Hattermann et al, Geophysical Research Letters, in press (ungated version here).

(13)  Sites providing current data and analysis about the Solar Cycle

1. Daily sun watch at Spaceweather.com
2. NOAA’s  Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC), including their Solar Cycle Progression page
3. NASA’s background information about Solar Cycle Predictions
4. Detailed information at SolarCycle24.com
5. Solaemon’s Spotless Days Page — Excellent graphs of historical sunspot activity.

(14)  About ice and sea ice

(a)  General:

1. “The ocean’s role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing“, John Marshall et al, Royal Society A, 13 July 2014

(b)  Arctic — effects of wind & currents:

1. “Fram Strait Ice Fluxes and Atmospheric Circulation: 1950–2000”, Torgny Vinje, Journal of Climate, August 2001
2. “Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation” by IGNATIUS G. RIGOR, Journal of Climate, 2002
3. “Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability” by Igor V. Polyakov and Mark A. Johnson, American Meteorological Society, 15 September 2002
4. “Variations in the Age of Arctic Sea-ice and Summer Sea-ice Extent”, Ignatius G. Rigor & John M. Wallace, Geophysical Research Letters, 8 May 2004
5. “Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability: Connections to the Arctic Oscillation and the ENSO“, Judith Curry et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 13 May 2004
6. “Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability“, Ola M. Johannessen et al, Tellus, August 2004
7. “Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice“, S. V. Nghiem, Geophysical Research Letters, 4 October 2007 — Free copy here.
8. “Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon“, V. Ramanathan, Nature Geoscience, August 2008
9. “Summer retreat of Arctic sea ice: Role of summer winds“, Masayo Ogi, Geophysical Research Letters, 18 December 2008 — Free copy here.
10. “Influence of winter and summer surface wind anomalies on summer Arctic sea ice extent“, Masayo Ogi et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2 April 2010 — Free copy here.
11. “Recent wind driven high sea ice export in the Fram Strait contributes to Arctic sea ice decline“, L. H. Smedsrud, et al, The Cryosphere Discussions, 5 May 2010
12. “Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss“, Yaeger et al, GRL, 28 December 2016.

(c)  Arctic — effects of soot:

1. List of articles, with links, about black carbon deposits’ effect on climate, AGW Observer
2. “Climate response of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon“, Serena H. Chung and John H. Seinfeld, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1 June 2005 — Free copy here.
3. “Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing“, T. Novakov, Journal of Geophysical Research, 8 November 2005 — Free copy here.
4. Present-day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow“, Mark G. Flanner at al, Journal of Geophysical Research, June 2007 — Free copy here.
5. “Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon“, V. Ramanathan and G. Carmichae, Nature Geoscience, April 2008 — Free copy here.
6. “Black soot and the survival of Tibetan glaciers“, Baiqing Xu et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 29 December 2009
7. “Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet“, Kaitlin M. Keegana, Proceedings of the National Academies, 13 June 2014
8. “Contribution of light-absorbing impurities in snow to Greenland’s darkening since 2009“, Nature Geoscience, in press — Science news article.

(c)  Antarctica:

1. “Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability“, Judith Curry et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 22 January 2004
2. “Modeling the Impact of Wind Intensification on Antarctic Sea Ice Volume“, Jinlun Zhang, Journal of Climate, January 2014
3. “Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet“, Dustin M. Schroeder et al, Proceedings of the National Academies, in press — Phys.org article here.

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