Summary: The date on which global production peaks depends to a large extent on the Saudi’s. Political peaking occurs if they decide to no longer increase production. Geological peaking occurs when they cannot increase production. The plans of the Saudi Princes shift with the political winds. The size of their oil reserves are a matter of fact known only to them, and is among their most closely guarded secrets. Might others also know? {excerpt from a post on 1 November 2007}.
What do the KGB and CIA know?
History shows that secrets sometimes can be kept from the public for decades. For example, the public learned of the WWII allied code-breaking program ULTRA only in 1974 – an impressive accomplishment considering the hundreds of people involved in producing and disseminating this information. But keeping such secrets from intelligence services is far more difficult.
The Gulf states hire geologists and engineers to run their oil industry, a large fraction of who come from western nations. Over the past 20 years that adds up to thousands of people who have learned key data about the world’s great oil fields; many of them probably know their estimated peaking dates. Have the CIA and KGB obtained these secrets over the past twenty years, or even penetrated senior levels of the Gulf’s national oil companies and governments?
The US government might have good forecasts about the peaking of global oil production, but has not shared this information with us. Can we infer the answer through inductive reasoning? Consider these three possible scenarios.
Scenario #1: global oil production will peak soon, probably before 2017
The Department of Energy commissioned a team of top experts, led by Robert Hirsch, to determine the requirements for America’s adaptation to peak oil and how long it will take. The Hirsch report’s (PDF) conclusion: adaption to peak oil will take at least 20 years. So if the CIA determined that we have only half that time – or less – than our Executive and Congressional leaders should have (would have?) initiated crash programs to conserve energy and develop new sources.
Today America has no crash energy programs. We barely have any energy policies. Can we therefore conclude that the CIA has NOT determined that Peak Oil is imminent? Perhaps not.
Scenario #2: global oil production will peak only after 2017
Peaking more than ten years in the future – almost three election cycles – might seem too distant for immediate political action, especially considering the fallibility of long-range forecasts. In this scenario we would expect weak government energy policy, especially vs. other competing threat scenarios – such as global climate change and the War on Terror.
This fits actual government policy quite well.
Scenario #3: gross negligence by either our intelligence agencies or leaders
There is one more scenario. Evidence might show that one or more of the major Middle Eastern oil fields will peak soon, but…
- Our intelligence agencies might not have learned this – or even be looking for this data.
- They might not recognize its significance, or reported it to senior government officials.
- Our senior governmental leaders might have this data, but through incompetence not yet acted on it.
Summary
- Scenario #1 is alarming.
- Scenario #2 is comforting.
- Scenario #3 is terrifying.
If #3 is correct, key aspects of our government are deeply dysfunctional. Failure to adapt to peak oil, whenever it occurs, might be the least of our problems. Which is it?
For More Information
Please like us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter. See all posts about peak oil and links to studies and reports about energy sources. Of special interest…
- Important: Recovering lost knowledge about exhaustion of the Earth’s resources (such as Peak Oil).
- When will global oil production peak? Here is the answer!
- The three forms of Peak Oil (let’s hope for the benign form).
- Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off!
- Prepare now, for oil prices will rise again.
