Summary: Sunspot counts and other indicators of solar activity continue at low levels. The last month with zero sunspots was June 1913. August had zero spots, or one (there is some debate about this). How solar cycle 24 develops deserves to be on the list of things to watch for anyone interested in geopolitics. A “small” solar cycle — a period in which the global climate cools — would have substantial effects. Esp. with global grain inventories at such low levels. As always, links to more information are at the end of this post.
Updates
(a) Initial reports were incorrect, as both of the major instiutions tracking sunspots have reported that now says it was NOT a spotless month! Here is the SIDC and NOAA data.
(b) Jan Janssens, posted at his Spotless Days site, puts this in perspective using the data provided by SIDC:
- Pending further review of the preliminary daily sunspot data by SIDC, the period from 21 July 2008 till 20 August 2008 is one of the longer ones since the beginning of daily solar observations in 1849.
- An even longer period in recent history occured during the previous solar cycle transition, from 13 September 1996 till 24 October 1996, when the sun was spotless for 42 consecutive days.
- One of the longest spotless periods (since 1818) is probably from 24 October 1822 until 12 March 1823 (140 days!), but unfortunately, the series is broken on 29 December 1823 (no observation available for that day).
The original post
Since the calendar month is a quirk, it is better to look at the number of 30 day periods without sunspots. As in this excerpt from “Sunspeck counts after all…Sun DOES NOT have first spotless calendar month since June 1913“, Anthony Watts, posted at his blog Watts Up with That, 1 September 2008:
Joe D’Aleo of ICECAP also wrote some interesting things which I’ll reprint here:
“The following is a plot of the number of months with 0 sunspots by year over the period of record – 23 cycles since 1749. Note that cluster of zero month years in the early 1800s (a very cold period called the Dalton minimum – at the time of Charles Dickens and snowy London town and including thanks to Tambora, the Year without a Summer 1816) and again to a lesser degree in the early 1900s. These correspond to the 106 and 213 year cycle minimums.“
There seems to be some unjustified excitement about the August sunspot count. Leif Svalgaard explains, in the comments of the above mention post by Watt:
So it seems to me that the NOAA/SWPC data still support the claim of a spotless August. It is just SIDC that has counted something. There was a tiny ‘spot’ on August 21-22. Or, more accurately, what is called a ‘pore’. The difference is whether there is a well-defined penumbra surrounding the dark central part, the umbra. The pore was observed by Bill Livingston [as I have reported in this blog] and he even measured its magnetic field and temperature [and found the pore to be just on his projected trend for disappearance of spots by 2015].
The issue is whether to count the pore and here NOAA and SIDC seem to differ.
… But, really, no spots or one tiny one doesn’t make any difference. The psychological impact of a spot-free month is undeniable, though. Physically, it doesn’t make much difference.
FM Notes: (1) NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. SIDC is the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center.
(2) I can find no bio on Svalgaard, he described as a physicist. See his list of publications here and here.
What is going on with the Sun?
1. “The Sun remains in a magnetic funk“, Anthony Watts, posted at his blog Watts Up with That, 30 August 2008:
While sunspots are often cited as the main proxy indicator of solar activity, there is another indicator which I view as equally (if not more) important. The Average Planetary Magnetic index (Ap), the strength of which ties into Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory modulating Earth’s cloud cover. A weaker Ap would mean less cosmic rays are deflected by the solar magnetic field, and so the theory goes, more cosmic rays provide more seed nuclei for clouds in Earth”s atmosphere. More clouds mean a greater albedo and less terrestrial solar radiation, which translates to lower temperatures.
I’ve always likened a sunspot to what happens with a rubber band on a toy balsa wood plane. You keep twisting the propeller beyond the normal tightness to get that extra second of thrust and you see the rubber band start to pop out knots. Those knots are like sunspots bursting out of twisted magnetic field lines.
{detailed explanation follows, with excellent graphics}
… We continue to remain in a deep solar minimum, and with the forecasts being modified to push back the real “active” start of Solar cycle 24, it remains anybody’s guess as to when the sun will come out of it’s funk.
2. “Still No Sunspot Action on the Sun“, Linda Moulton Howe, Earthfiles, 29 August 2008 — An interview with David Hathaway, solar physics team leader at the NASA Marcshall Space Flight Center. I strongly recomment reading this. Excerpt:
There has not been a spot on the sun for at least a month and this is about the third rotation of the sun this cycle where we have not seen any sunspots at all. It is suggesting that the next cycle 24 might be a small cycle – much to my consternation! – since I’ve been predicting a big cycle. But the fact that it’s taking this long to get started and that it’s starting out so slowly are hallmark signs of a small solar cycle.
On the other hand, there are other factors I looked at that suggested solar cycle 24 ought to be a big cycle. So, I’m confused!
… That forecast is what provoked Dr. Hathaway at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center to bet Dr. Gilman that solar cycle 24 was going to come on quickly in 2006 because it was going to be so strong – perhaps the strongest solar cycle on record.
Two now years later in August 2008, the sun is still extremely quiet. It was only nine months ago on December 11, 2007, that a patch of magnetism on the sun was declared by NASA to be the first official sunspot of the new Solar Cycle 24. The spot was in a high-latitude on the sun with reversed polarity compared to the previous Solar Cycle 23. The expectation was that meant after a very long time without sunspots, the sun would finally become active again. But that has not happened and this week I talked with Dr. Hathaway about what’s happening on the sun …
I am surprised that if it’s going to be big solar cycle 24 it’s taking this long for sunspots to get started.
Please share your comments by posting below (brief and relevant, please), or email me at fabmaximus at hotmail dot com (note the spam-protected spelling).
About International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP)
From their site:
ICECAP is the portal to all things climate for elected officials and staffers, journalists, scientists, educators and the public. It provides access to a new and growing global society of respected scientists and journalists that are not deniers that our climate is dynamic (the only constant in nature is change) and that man plays a role in climate change through urbanization, land use changes and the introduction of greenhouse gases and aerosols, but who also believe that natural cycles such as those in the sun and oceans are also important contributors to the global changes in our climate and weather. We worry the sole focus on greenhouse gases and the unwise reliance on imperfect climate models while ignoring real data may leave civilization unprepared for a sudden climate shift that history tells us will occur again, very possibly soon.
Through ICECAP you will have rapid access to our experts here in the United States and to experts and partner organizations worldwide, many of whom maintain popular web sites or insightful blogs or newsletters, write and present papers, have authored books and offer interviews to the media on climate issues. We spotlight new findings in peer-review papers and reports and rapidly respond to fallacies or exaggerations in papers, stories or programs and any misinformation efforts by the media, politicians and advocacy groups.
ICECAP is not funded by large corporations that might benefit from the status quo but by private investors who believe in the need for free exchange of ideas on this and other important issues of the day. Our working group is comprised of members from all ends of the political spectrum. This is not about politics but about science.
Other sources of information about the Solar Cycle
(a) For current data and analysis
- Daily sun watch at Spaceweather.com
- NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), including their Solar Cycle Progression page and the latest predictions.
- NASA’s background information about Solar Cycle Predictions
- Detailed information at SolarCycle24.com
- Solaemon’s Spotless Days Page — Excellent graphs of historical sunspot activity
(b) Other posts on this site
- Worrying about the Sun and climate change: cycle 24 is late, 10 July 2008
- Update: is Solar Cycle 24 late (a cooling cycle, with famines, etc)?, 15 july 2008
For more information about global warming
(a) Other posts on this site
- A look at the science and politics of global warming, 12 June 2008
- Global warming means more earthquakes!, 19 June 2008
- An article giving strong evidence of global warming, 30 June 2008
- More forecasts of a global cooling cycle, 15 July 2008
- Two valuable perspectives on global warming, 4 August 2008
- President Kennedy speaks to us about global warming and Climate Science, 7 August 2008
(b) Information from other sources
- “SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS FOR THE LAST 2,000 YEARS“, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES (2006) — aka The North Report.
- Report of the “Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction”, commissioned by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce (July 2006) — aka The Wegman Report. Also note this excerpt from the Q&A session of the Dr. Edward J. Wegman’s testimony.
- “The role of statisticians in public policy debates over climate change“, Richard L. Smith, American Statistical Association – Section on Statistics & the Environment Newsletter (Spring 2007) — One of the too-few reports by statisticians on the climate change literature.
- A timeline of the science and politics of climate science.
- A Bibliography by year of climate science research.