Contents
- “Peak Oil and the Curse of Cassandra“, Jamais Cascio, 31 July 2005 — This is interesting nonsense, a myth about Y2k applied to today’s crisis.
- Milestones in American history which passed by almost unnoticed in the mainstream media. Did you note them?
- UK Meteorological Office forecasts are not so good (but their long-range forecasts might be excellent, Anthony Watt, posted at his blog Watts Up with That, 6 September 2008
Excerpts
I. “Peak Oil and the Curse of Cassandra“, Jamais Cascio, 31 July 2005 — This is fascinating nonsense, a myth about Y2k applied to today’s crisis.
But to mention Y2K now, in 2005, tends to generate smirks rather than contemplation. After all, nothing happened, right? Serious people will argue that Y2K was nothing more than a full-employment act for computer programmers, looking to put one over on the ignorant public. Y2K, indeed; where were the plane crashes, train derailments, nuclear power plant meltdowns and ATMs spewing cash we were promised? I suspect that many peak oil followers will react very poorly to my comparison of peak oil and Y2K — clearly I’m trying to say that peak oil is a hoax, right?
Wrong. … Y2K is a lesson in what can happen when sufficiently-motivated people around the world work hard to avert disaster.
*** Like so much analysis even by knowledgeable Americans, it ignores the experiences of the world outside our borders. Much of the world, esp. in Asia and the emerging nations, ignored Y2K. Despite their minimal preparations — far less than the massive US efforts — they too experienced minimal disruption. We spent vast fortunes; they spent little. Both had similar results.
II. Milestones in American history passing by almost unnoticed in the mainstream media, described in this excerpt from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, 5 September 2008:
In fact the mortgage market is probably shrinking. Originations have fallen, and refinancing activity is muted. And month by month, that hardy bank of homeowners who have not gone broke are faithfully remitting the funds with which to amortize {reduce} their principal balances. Even longtime practitioners stop and stare, for they have never seen the mortgage market shrink before.
Foreigners watch agog, too, as they are the financiers of the American lifestyle. The most dependable, most high-margin US export is the dollar bill itself. Consuming much more than it produces (in every year but one since 1982), this country discharges its debts in dollars. Conveniently, its trusting creditors are happy to invest those dollars in American securities including the mortgage-backed obligations of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSE’s).
… On July 13, Treasury Secretary Paulson announced a plan to deal the foundering of the GSE’s. although the plan was mot so much a plan as an expression of intent, Paulson’s intent was clear enough. What he principally intended was that the GSE crisis not blow up in his face. … Paulson pointed noted that GSE debt “is held by financial institutions around the world,” by which he meant the world’s central banks.
We take these assurances to be ironclad. … Nothing will be allowed to blemish the GSE’s mortgage-backed securities. The great American dollar-export franchise depends on that.
*** Grant’s describes two milestones that America is passing by:
(1) The inflection point of the post-WWII debt supercycle, as the growth in US household debt — the engine of US prosperity, esp since 1982 — ends, and the great deleveraging cycle begins.
(2) For the first time since the post-Revolutionary War period (see this history), American domestic policy must reflect the needs of foreign creditors. And the need to do so will only grow over time, considering the size of our foreign debts and the need not only to roll them forward (we cannot pay without risking inflation) but also seek hundreds of billions in new loans each year.
III. UK Meteorological Office forecasts are not so good (but their long-range forecasts might be excellent: “UK’s Met Office blows another summer forecast“, Anthony Watt, posted at his blog Watts Up with That, 6 September 2008 — Excerpt:
The UK Met office is the official UK meteorological agency and is one of the leading promoters of the idea of climate change. Their web site is in fact titled ‘Met Office: Weather and climate change.’
He provides a “A Chronology of UK Met Office press releases”, showing that they have a poor record at short-term forecasting. However, they remain confident about their long-term forecasts.
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