Summary: The long game continues between Israel-US and Iran, which began in 1979. Iran may won this inning. That would astonish most American geopolitical experts, who describe Iran’s resistance as either foolish or insane. How can Iran even imagine defeating US-Israel, with our coalition of western and Sunni Arab allies? But that’s the history of the world since WWII, of little people defeating the great western powers. Not every time, but sometimes– from Algeria to Afghanistan — however wrong or even evil their cultures are in our eyes. This is chapter 12 in a series about our conflict with Iran; at the end are links to other chapters.
Contents
- “Israel and US postpone massive defense drill in fear of escalation with Iran”
- Will Europe put more sanctions on Iran?
- Rumors (strong rumors) of Mossad supporting terrorism against Iran, done under the US flag
- Other posts in this series
- For more information
Note: Several readers have asked why does it take such a long series to explain our conflict with Iran? Because years of propaganda have imprisoned us in an interlocking network of lies. We have been led into a long tunnel. It’s a long trek back into the sunlight. Even if we choose to stay on this course, this situation reveals much about America — and the nature of State-to-State conflict in the 21st century.
(1) “Israel and US postpone massive defense drill in fear of escalation with Iran”
“Israel and U.S. postpone massive defense drill in fear of escalation with Iran“, Haaretz, 15 January 2012 — “Israeli defense officials tell Channel 2 that Washington wants to avoid causing further tensions in region after various foreign reports of U.S. and Israeli preparations for strike on Iran.” Excerpt:
Israel and the United States have postponed a massive joint defense exercise, which was expected to be carried out in the coming weeks, in order to avoid an escalation with Iran, Channel 2 reported on Sunday. According to an Israeli defense official, Washington wants to avoid causing further tensions in the region, especially in light of the sensitive situation that has been generated after various reports in the international media that the U.S. and Israel are preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The drill, codenamed Austere Challenge 12, was supposed to simulate the missiles fired by Iran or other antagonistic states toward Israel. Defense officials told Channel 2 on Sunday that the drill is now scheduled to take place in the summer. Both Israeli and U.S. officials said the exercise would be the largest-ever joint drill by the two countries, involving thousands of U.S. soldiers.
(2) Will Europe put more sanctions on Iran?
Throughout history the key to victory has often been constructing alliances. Pooling resources, cutting off supplies and trade from the enemy and gaining them for our side, and positioning armies to encircle the enemy. The EU plays several of these roles in in our conflict with Iran, and so is a key player. Europe is the #2 importer of Iranian oil, after China. If they don’t ban imports, China almost certainly will not.
So far EU leaders have participated in the sanctions and fierce rhetoric against Iran. But if war breaks out the EU will bear a disproportionate share of the effects: reduced exports and lost oil imports — both deepening a recession which might have already started (with unemployment already painfully high in most EU members, and over 20% in Spain). Will they continue to help US-Israel, or stand aside? Statements from EU leaders are equivocal, even contradictory. Any delay helps Iran.
Update — My guess looks wrong about EU action against Iran: “EU states agree gradual ban on Iran oil, sanctions on central bank“, Reuters, 23 January 2012.
(a) “No talk now of Iran military action“, Politiken (Danish newspaper), 11 January 2012 — Excerpt:
The EU’s ‘Foreign Minister’ Catherine Ashton arrived in Copenhagen Tuesday for meetings with the Danish government, which today officially takes over the rotating presidency of the European Union:
“No-one is talking about a military operation at the moment. … The goal of the sanctions is to put pressure on the Iranian government so that they understand that they have entered into agreements that they must respect. Our duty is to tell Iran that they must live up to their obligations. … I have no deadline. But I expect Iran to understand that we will continue with sanctions. The EU’s member countries are currently discussing more sanctions. The world is watching Iran and expects it to show that they are able to move away from the road that so many fear. … The obvious solution is that Iran takes the political decision that they want nuclear power – that can help them develop – but that they will not develop a weapons programme. Not just for their own sake, but for the sake of the whole region. That is what we are trying to achieve.”
Denmark’s Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal, who as foreign minister for the presidency will be partnering Ashton for the next six months:
“The reason we are so active with sanctions is precisely because they are an alternative to the military option. Everyone knows that a military attack will not solve the nuclear problem in Iran. … Quite to the contrary it would delay a solution and would have a lot of consequences in the Middle East and elsewhere which would cause new problems. That is why we are putting pressure on Iran to come back to the negotiating table and accept inspections. That is why we will continue to strengthen sanctions.”
(b) “What’s behind Europe’s tough stance on Iran?“, Christian Science Monitor, 15 January 2012 — “European powers have agreed in principle to embargo Iranian oil, the lifeblood of Iran’s economy, adding to tough sanctions already in place.” Excerpt:
“On January 4 European powers agreed in principle to an oil embargo, expected to be implemented gradually after a Jan. 23 meeting of EU foreign ministers to work out the details. … Europe is Iran’s biggest trading partner, according to European Commission figures. About 90% of Iran’s exports to Europe are energy related, and Europe takes between 450,000 and 550,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day, rivaling China’s 600,000 barrels as Iran’s biggest buyer. Thus EU oil sanctions would exert significant leverage. European oil imports account for 18% of Iran’s oil sales abroad, while a US embargo simply keeps the United States from buying any oil from Iran.
“Sanctions gained momentum after Iran’s Nov. 29 attack on the British Embassy in Tehran, and were reportedly sealed by EU assurances to the Greeks that any oil shortfalls resulting from a boycott of Iranian oil would be compensated. While about 6% of EU oil comes from Iran, debt-addled Greece gets about 30% of its oil from there, according to the IAEA. Italy and Spain each get 13% of their oil from Iran.
“In the January 23 meeting, EU ministers will work out the how and when of the embargo. Italy has proposed ‘phased sanctions’ to take effect over three to six months to allow for supply to adjust to an embargo, particularly important in struggling EU economies. Iran owes Italy’s energy giant ENI some $2 billion, which Iran is repaying in oil; the issue was suddenly in dispute days ago, but Iranian authorities have confirmed the contract terms.”
Richard Whitman of Chatham House, an independent foreign-policy think tank in London:
“France and the UK are concerned about unintended consequences of military action on Iran. … Like many in Europe, they support every effort to delay a military answer.”
Bruno Tertrais, of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris:
“We don’t see sanctions as an alternative to negotiations but as part of them. … Even though there is little demonstrated hope for negotiations to resume, we haven’t given up.”
Rouzbeh Parsi of the EU Institute of {sic; “for”} Strategic Studies in Paris:
“Our policy is on autopilot. … There is no creative thinking on where this ends up. The EU doesn’t know how to play the ball. There’s sanctions and nothing else, which plays to those that want a military solution. The EU is voluntarily cutting its [energy] imports, and there isn’t much else it can sanction from Iran, and we are now coming to the end of that game. … The danger of sanctions … is that people think there isn’t anything else to do.”
(c) Interview on Sky Net with UK Foreign Secretary William Hague, 15 January 2012 — Excerpt:
“We have never ruled anything out. We have not ruled out any option, or supporting any option. We believe all options should be on the table, that is part of the pressure on Iran. … But we are clearly not calling for or advocating military action. We are advocating meaningful negotiations, if Iran will enter into them, and the increasing pressure of sanctions to try to get some flexibility from Iran.
“… This is an increasingly dangerous situation that Iran is developing a military nuclear programme. Our sanctions are part of getting Iran to change course and to enter negotiations and we should not be deterred from implementing those.”
(d) From the Washington Post, 15 January 2012 — Excerpt:
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in an interview this weekend with the Rheinische Post newspaper:
“Even just the option of nuclear armament by Iran would have far-reaching negative consequences far beyond the Gulf region, so it is not acceptable. … So, with new sanctions that we want to approve this month, we are now targeting the heart of the Iranian nuclear program: its oil and, with that, its sources of financing. … But the door to dialogue with Iran remains open at the same time. … We should not further charge an already tense situation in a turbulent region.”
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe:
“I am confident we will adopt very significant additional measures …. covering the oil sector and possibly other sectors as well.”
(3) Rumors (strong rumors) of Mossad supporting terrorism against Iran, done under the US flag
Mossad supporting insurgents in Iran (designated at terrorists by the US DoS), under the guise of CIA agents. The US government probably knew about this for years, but it looks bad to the US public and other nations. Will this weaken US support for Israel?
(a) This story was a bombshell in 2007
“ABC News Exclusive: The Secret War Against Iran“, ABC News, 3 April 2007 — Opening:
Pakistani tribal militant group responsible for a series of deadly guerrilla raids inside Iran has been secretly encouraged and advised by American officials since 2005, U.S. and Pakistani intelligence sources tell ABC News. The group, called Jundullah, is made up of members of the Baluchi tribe and operates out of the Baluchistan province in Pakistan, just across the border from Iran. It has taken responsibility for the deaths and kidnappings of more than a dozen Iranian soldiers and officials.
(b) Now we learn that this may have been an operation by the Mossad, done under a false flag
“False Flag“, Mark Perry, Foreign Policy, 13 January 2012 — “A series of CIA memos describes how Israeli Mossad agents posed as American spies to recruit members of the terrorist organization Jundallah to fight their covert war against Iran.” Opening:
Buried deep in the archives of America’s intelligence services are a series of memos, written during the last years of President George W. Bush’s administration, that describe how Israeli Mossad officers recruited operatives belonging to the terrorist group Jundallah by passing themselves off as American agents.
According to two U.S. intelligence officials, the Israelis, flush with American dollars and toting U.S. passports, posed as CIA officers in recruiting Jundallah operatives — what is commonly referred to as a “false flag” operation. The memos, as described by the sources, one of whom has read them and another who is intimately familiar with the case, investigated and debunked reports from 2007 and 2008 accusing the CIA, at the direction of the White House, of covertly supporting Jundallah — a Pakistan-based Sunni extremist organization.
Jundallah, according to the U.S. government and published reports, is responsible for assassinating Iranian government officials and killing Iranian women and children. But while the memos show that the US had barred even the most incidental contact with Jundallah, according to both intelligence officers, the same was not true for Israel’s Mossad.
The memos also detail CIA field reports saying that Israel’s recruiting activities occurred under the nose of U.S. intelligence officers, most notably in London, the capital of one of Israel’s ostensible allies, where Mossad officers posing as CIA operatives met with Jundallah officials. The officials did not know whether the Israeli program to recruit and use Jundallah is ongoing. Nevertheless, they were stunned by the brazenness of the Mossad’s efforts.
(c) This might be the evidence Iran claims to have showing US involvement
“Iran protests to US, UK governments“, Islamic Republic News Agency, 14 January 2012:
The Foreign Ministry in two separate letters strongly protested the US and the UK governments and underlined their clear role in assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan and called those two governments responsible for crimes against Iranian nuclear scientists.
(Tehran) Iran sent another protest note to Switzerland embassy here in Tehran as interest office of the US government. In its letter Iran underlined that its diplomatic notes about existing documents on the US support for terrorist groups against Iran had been without answer or facing with the US government silence. It added that upon authentic documents and reliable information the operation had been executed with guideline, support and planning of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and with direct interference of the agency elements, which its direct responsibility is on shoulder of the US government. The letter underscored that Iran by condemning such inhuman act, is requesting prompt reply of the US government, and it strongly warns against the consequences of support for every kind of terrorist operation against Iranian citizens.
(4) Other posts in this series
See the FM Reference Page Iran – will the US or Israel attack Iran? for a list of all posts about this subject.
- Is the War on Terror over (because there are no longer two sides)?, 3 September 2008 — Rumors of covert ops by us against Iran, including aid to terrorists
- Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?, 16 January 2009
- Iran will have the bomb in 5 years (again), 2 January 2010 — Forecasts of an Iranian bomb really soon, going back to 1984
- About the escalating conflict with Iran (not *yet* open war), 4 January 2012
- Have Iran’s leaders vowed to destroy Israel?, 5 January 2012 — No, but it’s established as fact by repetition
- What do we know about Iran’s nuclear ambitions?, 6 January 2012 — US intelligence officials are clear: not as much as the news media implies
- What does the IAEA know about Iran’s nuclear program?, 9 January 2012 — Their reports bear little resemblance to reports in the news media
- What happens when a nation gets nukes? Sixty years of history suggests an answer., 10 January 2012
- What happens if Iran gets nukes? Not what we’ve been told., 11 January 2012
- Status report on the already-hot conflict with Iran – and the looming war, 12 January 2012
- Continuity and dysfunctionality in US foreign policy (lessons for our conflict with Iran), 13 January 2012 — Insights about today from Cold War strategist Colin Grey
- What the conflict with Iran teaches us about modern State-to-State war, 16 January 2012
- Has Iran won a round vs. the US-Israel?, 17 January 2012
- Is Killing Iranian Nuclear Scientists Terrorism?, 19 January 2012
(5) For more information
Other articles, all recommended reading:
- “Iranian Oil Embargo“, James Hamilton, Roubini Global Economics, 15 January 2012 — “As efforts continue to impose sanctions on Iran, I thought it would be helpful to discuss the possible implications of these developments for oil-consuming countries.”
- “Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis ”, George Friedman, Stratfor, 17 January 2012
- “Think Before Acting on Iran“. Leslie H. Gelb, The Daily Beast, 17 January 2012 — “America is once again stumbling toward war. If we’ve learned anything from the past, it’s that we’d better debate Iran policy before, not after, the fighting begins”
- “The Myth of ‘Isolated’ Iran – Following the Money in the Iran Crisis“, Pepe Escobar, TomDispatch, 17 January 2012
Posts about Israel on the FM website:
- The Fate of Israel, 28 July 2006
- The War Nerd shows how simple 4GW theory can be, 22 January 2009
- Are Israel’s leaders insane? Jeffrey Goldberg thinks so., 15 August 2010