Summary: In July 2008 I forecast that McCain would win. Earlier, in February, I predicted that Obama would be a weak president. This election we’ll double down: Romney will win, and prove an effective President — implementing major reforms. Very effective for the 1% who purchased his election; less so for us.
“You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose.”
— Mario Cuomo in The New Republic, 4 April 1985
Romney seems most likely to win. A weak economy looks probable. A demoralized Left seems certain after four years of Obama walking in the footsteps of Bush Jr. The combination will put Romney over the top.
President Obama has ruled far to the right of Candidate Obama, with key policies diametrically opposite his platform. Yet, dog-like, much of the Left still loves him. But fewer than in 2008, and with less enthusiasm.
Candidate Romney has developed flip-flopping into a fine art, running against his only major accomplishment during his single term in office. Plus a stunning record of mendacity (well documented at MSNBC’s Maddow Blog). These skills give Romney an advantage over Obama. His winning emotional edge will come from the GOP’s successful demonizing of Black Islamic Foreigner Anarchist Socialist Obama.
We see all these things displayed in Romney’s speech on April 13 at St. Louis to the NRA National Convention (excerpts from the Fox News transcript).
“The framework of law created by the Declaration and the Constitution is the source of our greatness. It has generated unparalleled opportunity and prosperity. Our Founders understood this, which is why they created a system of government that is limited. This President is moving us away from our Founders’ vision. Instead of limited government, he is leading us toward limited freedom and limited opportunity.”
Almost total fiction; of course Romney gives no specifics. Excerpt for the national security policies supported by both parties, involving growth of presidential power beyond the Founders’ nightmares. As Obama expanded Bush Jr’s powers, Romney will expand those deed by Obama.
“The Obama administration’s assault on our economic freedom is the principal reason why the recovery has been so tepid – why it couldn’t meet their projections, let alone our expectations. The President’s assault on economic freedom begins with his tax hikes. “
Since Obama has cut taxes, there have been no tax hikes — let alone tax hikes that slowing the economy. Taxes are at multi-generational lows. Romney follows this with descriptions of future tax hikes Obama has proposed (conjectural, hence with no economic impact). Looking ahead, the math of Federal budgets makes tax hikes are almost inevitable. President Romney will probably follow President Reagan and President Bush Sr on the list of America’s top tax raisers.
“Like economic and religious freedom, our personal freedoms have been under attack. Few things are more important to us than our health, and our healthcare. The 10th amendment preserves the right to choose our own healthcare, and all rights not specifically granted to the federal government by the Constitution, to the states, and to the people. Obamacare violates the Constitution. I’m counting on the Supreme Court to say exactly that.”
The centerpiece of the GOP campaign is the attack on Obamacare. A law devised by conservative think-tanks, modeled largely on Romney’s major accomplishment as Governor of Massachusetts, applauded by many of the GOP leaders who now attack Obama. Most important, it addresses the largest threat to the government’s solvency — and a major drag on US competitiveness — the rising cost of health care. The GOP response is smoke, hand-waving.
Whoever wins in 2012 will take strong measures on health care (Obamacare is only a small initial step). Romney shows himself well-qualified to do so by his abandonment of his own words and deeds, showing no attachment to his past (suitable for the leader of an amnesic nation). After election he can repeat this process, returning to the 2006-vintage Romney.
Romney says what’s necessary to win. To gain votes from a foolish people one must say foolish things. Romney’s history shows that he’s no fool. Believe his past deeds, not his words.
Conclusions
This is the lesson of campaigns 2008 and 2012: no matter how the candidates prance and gibber, once in office they take the difficult measures necessary to execute the will of our ruling elites: to produce economic stability, low taxes for the rich, less regulation (eg, Obama’s JOBS bill; see below), eroded civil liberties, a stronger and slowly combining police-intelligence-military complex.
There is no reason to fear that America will collapse. But we are on a path to become a new nation, sharing only the name and location of what we once were. There is still time to change.
“You’re going to see a lot of politicians choose to campaign in fiction, but we have to govern in fact.”
— Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on ABC’s This Week, 15 April 2012
For more information
(A) To see the real erosion of liberty in America read the recent articles at Salon. Glenn Greenberg and his guest authors report from the front lines in the battles to preserve our freedoms. We’re losing.
(B) About the bipartisan JOBS bill, unleashing banks to prey upon us
- “A Colossal Mistake of Historic Proportions: The ‘JOBS’ bill“, Simon Johnson (former Chief Economist of the IMF), Baseline Scenario, 19 March 2012
- “‘JOBS’ Disaster Looms“, Simon Johnson (former Chief Economist of the IMF), Baseline Scenario, 21 March 2012
- “Why Obama’s JOBS Act Couldn’t Suck Worse“, Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone, 9 April 2012
- “Yes, Virginia, This Is Obama’s JOBS Act“, Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone, 9 April 2012
(C) About America’s future:
- Our fears are unwarranted. America is in fact well-governed. 18 August 2011
- Fear not! America will not fall due to its citizen’s imprudence. We’ve found a sure solution., 16 April 2012
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