Summary: As the sanctions tighten like a noose around Iran, the US deploys its power on Iran’s borders to discourage resistance. It’s a simple plan to slowly break their will, with Iran’s nukes as a pretext. So far it’s working. Only China or Russia can save Iran. They probably will not do so. Fear-mongering by the usual sources about war will probably again be wrong.
Contents
- The naval deployment
- The overall military build-up
- The goal of US policy towards Iran
- For more information about nukes — & Iran
(1) The naval deployment
The US has been keeping two carriers in the Middle East. DoD announced yesterday that a third will be deployed there.
- The USS Enterprise is on station in the Middle East. It deployed from Norfolk on 11 March, and is scheduled for decommissioning on December 1.
- The USS John Stennis deploys late this summer from Bremerton, WA. It was scheduled to deploy at the end of the year; it will take about one month to get on station. See the DoD news release here.
- The USS Eisenhower deployed from Norfolk on 20 June, to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln — which left Persian Gulf area on 16 July.
- The French nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is said to be sailing to the French naval base at Port Zayid, Abu Dhabi. It is only 44,000 tons (US short tonnes); for comparison the US Nimitz is 112,000-plus tonnes.
(2) The military build-up
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We have slowly erected a wall of weapons around Iran, as described in “Pentagon Bulks Up Defenses in the Gulf“, Wall Street Journal, 16 July 2012
The Pentagon is building a missile-defense radar station at a secret site in Qatar and organizing its biggest-ever minesweeping exercises in the Persian Gulf, as preparations accelerate for a possible flare-up with Iran, according to U.S. officials. The radar site will complete the backbone of a system designed to defend U.S. interests and allies such as Israel and European nations against Iranian rockets, officials told The Wall Street Journal.
The minesweeping exercises, in September, will be the first such multilateral drills in the region, and are expected to be announced by U.S. officials Tuesday.
The Pentagon’s moves reflect concern that tensions with Iran could intensify as the full weight of sanctions targeting the country’s oil exports takes hold this summer. Though U.S. officials described both the radar site and the naval exercises as defensive in nature, the deployments likely will be seen by Iran as provocations.
… The U.S. moves are intended to address the two Iranian offensive capabilities Pentagon planners most worry about: Tehran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and its threat to shut down the oil-shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz by mining them.
Underscoring concerns, the Pentagon said Monday it is sending an aircraft carrier, the John C. Stennis, to the Middle East several months early to ensure two carriers are present in the region at all times.
… The Pentagon chose to place the new radar site in Qatar because it is home to the largest U.S. military air base in the region, Al Udeid Air Base, analysts say. More than 8,000 troops are stationed there and at another U.S. base in Qatar.
… The radar base in Qatar is slated to house a powerful AN/TPY-2 radar, also known as an X-Band radar, and supplement two similar arrays already in place in Israel’s Negev Desert and in central Turkey, officials said. Together, the three radar sites form an arc that U.S. officials say can detect missile launches from northern, western and southern Iran. Those sites will enable U.S. officials and allied militaries to track missiles launched from deep inside Iran, which has an arsenal of missiles capable of reaching Israel and parts of Europe. Intelligence agencies believe Iran could have a ballistic missile as early as 2015 that could threaten the U.S.
The radar installations in turn are being linked to missile-interceptor batteries throughout the region and to U.S. ships with high-altitude interceptor rockets. The X-Band radar provides images that can be used to pinpoint rockets in flight.
Officials said the U.S. military’s Central Command, which is overseeing the buildup to counter Iran, also wants to deploy the Army’s first Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile-interceptor system, known as a THAAD, to the region in the coming months, possibly in the United Arab Emirates. The THAAD has its own radar, so deploying it separately from the X-Bands provides even more coverage and increases the system’s accuracy, officials said.
The X-Band radar and the THAAD will provide an “extra layer of defense,” supplementing Patriot batteries that are used to counter lower-altitude rockets, said Riki Ellison, chairman of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, which supports developing and deploying the systems.
(3) The goal of US policy towards Iran
Sanctions tighten slowly around Iran’s economy, seeking to break its opposition to US hegemony in the Middle East. As described in:
- The Obama Doctrine: we will attack and destroy all non-nuclear rivals, 13 March 2012
- The hidden objective of our alliance against Iran, 11 June 2012
- Threats to attack Iran are smoke. Sanctions on Iran are our tool. Weakening Iran is our goal, 14 June 2012
The military build-up discourages Iran from responding with military force, in effect holding them in our garrote until their national will to resist the US breaks. Too bad for Iran that they don’t have a nuke program; today that’s the only security in this world.
Americans don’t like to see themselves as an overbearing global hegemon. To hide that harsh truth the news media describe Iran as an awesome power threatening the world. The war drums the occasional note of reality from experts, including the US intelligence community and former senior Israeli intelligence officials, that Iran probably does not have a program to build the bomb. Just like Saddam’s terrifying army in 1990, and his WMDs in 2002. We’re lied to so often by the news media that we’ve come to accept lies as truth.
At this point it seems that Iran will break, eventually, in some fashion. Unless Russia or China intervenes. Or, unless the US, Israel, or Iran choose to attack. None of these scenarios seem likely. Bet that Iran will crack.
(4) Other posts about nukes — and Iran
About nukes:
- Stratfor debunks myths about nuclear weapons and terrorism, 8 October 2009
- What will the world’s tyrants learn from the Libyan War? Get nukes., 25 March 2011
- What happens when a nation gets nukes? Sixty years of history suggests an answer., 10 January 2012
About Iran’s nukes:
- Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?, 16 January 2009
- Iran will have the bomb in 5 years (again), 2 January 2010 — Forecasts of an Iranian bomb really soon, going back to 1984
- Have Iran’s leaders vowed to destroy Israel?, 5 January 2012 — No, but it’s established as fact by repetition
- What do we know about Iran’s nuclear ambitions?, 6 January 2012 — US intelligence officials are clear: not as much as the news media implies
- What does the IAEA know about Iran’s nuclear program?, 9 January 2012 — Their reports bear little resemblance to reports in the news media
- What happens when a nation gets nukes? Sixty years of history suggests an answer., 10 January 2012
- What happens if Iran gets nukes? Not what we’ve been told., 11 January 2012