Summary: Today we look at the GOP, another in a series about the results of Campaign 2012. How will the Grand Old Party respond to its defeat at the polls? This forecast: quickly and effectively, for obvious reasons. See links at the end to other posts in the series.
A political {party} is like an American forest; you have only to cut down the old trees, and immediately new trees come up to replace them.
— Slight paraphrase of a line from the Introduction to The English Constitution by Walter Bagehot (1867)
The objected pictured to the right is a gömböc, a convex three-dimensional homogeneous self-righting body shape used by turtles, first imagined by Vladimir Arnold (1995) and developed by Gábor Domokos and Péter Várkonyi (2006). When tipped, even upside down, it returns to normal. For details see Wikipedia.
Contents
Rebuilding the GOP will move quickly (and noisily). The problems described in the previous post are serious, but can be fixed relatively quickly. The fiscal cliff will be the stage on which this gets played out. There are 3 factors the GOP can rely upon.
- The GOP has a broad large, broad base of support
- The GOP has a strong bench of next-gen players
- Republicans, like most Americans, are easily led
- Other posts in this series
- For More Information: about the Tea Party Movement
(1) The GOP has a broad large, broad base of support
A common narrative in the media is that the US is politically divided by geography. Not so, that results from misleading state-level pictures — allocating states on an all-or-nothing basis to each party. See the map in the previous chapter showing country-level voting, reflecting each party’s proportional strength. Little red or blue, mostly purple, few clear regional patterns.
Nor does the Democratic Party have a large lead over the GOP. A few percent of the popular vote decides the Presidency. Even a poorly managed campaign by Romney, in a slowly growing economy (trends are usually more important than levels), climaxed by collapse of their new high-tech election-day get-out the-vote system — led to a (estimated) 4% loss.
The GOP has a large, strong core. Plus a nation drifting steadily to the right, with a large majority broadly sympathetic to conservative views — if stripped of their racism, homophobia, and sexism — and packaged better. Hispanics, often considered (with Blacks) the foundation of a future Democratic majority, have shown themselves receptive to GOP governor’s who seek their votes. Like Jeb Bush and the Hispanic-American GOP politicians.
The image to the right comes from the Right Truth website.
(2) The GOP has a strong bench of next-gen players
“In Washington, the view is that the banks are to be regulated, and my view is that Washington and the regulators are there to serve the banks.”
– Spencer Bachus (R-AL), Chairman of the House Banking Committee, The Birmingham News, 9 December 2010
In 2008 and even more so in 2012, the GOP recruited its candidates from the clown car of the GOP train. Should they look elsewhere, they’ll easily find attractive, skillful, and intelligent candidates.
Their base includes more than politicians. The conservative movement has spent far more effort on personnel development than the Left during the past generation. They’ve not effectively reaped the harvest, but it awaits them in the fields. To see the party’s possible future intellectual leaders read The American Conservative magazine.
(3) Republicans, like most Americans, are easily led
The most ludicrous, IMO, reason for GOP doom is that the base will resist reform. First, the majority of the base is disgusted with the clown car candidates. Second, they are Americans. They will believe what their leaders tell them. They will cheer what they’re told to cheer.
We like to think of ourselves as rugged individualists. It’s a myth. Look at the Tea Party.
- Born in opposition to the Bush-Obama bank bailouts, they mobilized on command. When told to switch their opposition to other policies, they obeyed. When told to support very bank friendly GOP candidates, they obeyed.
- When told that foreign wars and a large standing army were bad and isolationism was good, they believed. When told that foreign wars make us safe, and that a large standing army was necessary — they believed.
- When told that the Constitution was a God-given document, that only the original writers interpretation was valid, and that changes were heresy — they believed. When told that the government could declare wars and surveil — or kill — kill citizens at will, they believed.
Both left and right, Americans are sheep. The people with power and resources call the tune and we dance. Not sullenly, as do people in other nations. But enthusiastically. We’re exceptional in that respect, at least. The GOP will find new campaign themes to advance its suporters’ interest (ie, the supporters that matter, among the 1%). The rank-and-file members will drop their old convictions and sing the new tunes without missing a beat.
On a deeper note, that’s because both the Left and Right in America are rooted in deep and enduring ideas about the nature of humanity and the role of government. Under stress they return to these core ideas and values, to become revitalized. That’s what will happen in 2013 on the Right.
If it doesn’t, that would show that the US political system has become seriously dysfunctional and unable to rebalance itself. Things could quickly get ugly.
(4) The posts in this series about the results of Campaign 2012
- Conservatives, celebrate the historic victory you won today!
- The votes were counted and one wing of our one ruling party won. Rejoice!
- How Obama AND conservatives both won on Tuesday
- Civil rights just took a step forward, the slow hard way. The right way.
- The hidden major party, the key to political control of America
- Let’s list the GOP’s problems. They’re all easily solvable.
- The Republican Party is like America, and can quickly recover it strength
(5) For More Information
How the GOP got into this condition — About the Tea Party Movement, effective shock troops for the Right, but not good for the GOP.
- Are the new “tea party” protests a grass roots rebellion or agitprop?, 1 March 2009
- Our ruling elites scamper and play while our world burns, 11 March 2009
- The weak link in America’s political regime, 16 September 2009
- More examples of Americans waking up – should we rejoice?, 10 October 2009
- Does the Tea Party movement remind you of the movie “Meet John Doe”?, 27 January 2010
- The Tea Party movement develops a platform. It’s the Underpants Gnomes Business Plan!, 8 March 2010
- About the Tea Party Movement: who they are and what they believe, 19 March 2010
- The Tea Party Movement disproves my recommendation for the path to reforming America, 20 April 2010
- At last we see a Tea Party political platform, 13 May 2010
- Kinsley – “My Country, Tis of Me – There’s nothing patriotic about the Tea Party Patriots”, 15 May 2010
- Why has wild man Mark Williams become a top leader of the Tea Party movement?, 13 June 2010
- More people participating in politics: is this good for America?, 20 June 2010
- Obama scores again against the Constitution. The Tea Party is right about the battle, but AWOL., 28 September 2010
- Today’s tea party propaganda: the wonderfulness of slavery, 8 July 2011
- God and the Tea Party Movement, 30 March 2012