Good news about the fear epidemic: we’re learning!

Summary: Today’s post gives good news (too rarely found here). ! I have long warned about the fear epidemic where our elites use fear as the most effective way to mold public opinion. That explains the near-constant fear barrages. But our ruling elites (and me) might be wrong about us — and the effectiveness of fear as a tool to rule us.  {2nd of 2 posts today.}

The brave man is not he who feels no fear,
For that were stupid and irrational;
But he, whose noble soul its fear subdues,
And bravely dares the danger nature shrinks from.

— Joanna Baillie’s Count Basil (1798).

America overflows with fear. Both Left and Right rain daily fear barrages on us, warning of a multitude of certain dooms ahead. Countless foes foreign and domestic. Ten percent of us suffer from a hundred or more serious diseases. So many of our foods are poisonous, as are the chemicals we drink, eat, and breathe — from industrial pollution, contact with our consumer goods (soda bottles), or waste (hormones from birth control pills). The very weather threatens to destroy us, as our society disintegrates.

As I have shown in scores of posts, our elites increasingly attempt to influence by appeals to fear — rather than to higher qualities, or even other low traits. I assumed they were correct to do so, but now suspect I am wrong.

A paradigmatic fear barrage was the early 1980’s “nuclear winter” campaign to force unilateral disarmament by the US. It gained wide support in academia, on the Left, and among journalists — but failed to gain traction with the public.  It did not fail because of its shaky scientific foundations, or its somewhat fraudulent marketing (a theory unveiled in Parade magazine rather than peer-reviewed journals) — but because the public didn’t believe.

Fast forward to the fear campaigns of today, such as the Right’s crusade against Obamacare and gays and the Left’s crusade against global warming (rebranded as climate change). These have been conducted with skill and professionalism, supported by lavish funding. All have failed.

 

What characteristics distinguish effective from ineffective fear campaigns?

Do those giving the warnings believe them?

“Courage is a mean with regard to fear and confidence.”
— Aristotle in The Nicomachean Ethics.

Many Jews warned about the NAZIs. They believed, shown by either emigrating or actively opposing them (acts of incredible bravery, usually at great cost). Do those who said Bush Jr was like Hitler believe it? Do those who say Obama is like Hitler believe it (some use it as a general purpose epithet, but many make detailed comparisons)?

Western history is littered with predictions of the apocalypse and those who sacrificed much to prepare for it. Such as the followers of William Miller — and the Great Disappointment of 1843 (their remnants evolved into the Seventh Day Adventists). Do today’s doomsters believe that strongly?

Did the Y2K hysterics believe their forecasts? Did they emigrate to rural areas or New Zealand to avoid the crash of civilization, or inexplicably remain in their comfortable homes to suffer with their families after THE Day?

What about the billionaires warning about imminent socialist or communist revolutions in America? Have they divested themselves of their real property (i.e., not movable) to avoid the inevitable expropriations? Or do they secretly smile as they watch American politics slide to the Right as income and wealth concentrates in the 1% (Rand Paul would be considered as a fringe weirdo by the GOP politicians of 1964).

How many of the green doomsters have restructured their lives to prepare for the coming climate change? They’ll want to act now before the evidence become so evident that property values are affected. Most live near the soon-to-be submerged coasts or in the soon-to-be desiccated and baked southern States. Have they begun to emigrate inland and to the north?

How do people act when they believe doom is coming?

We have examples in history and fiction (fiction showing how we expect people to act).  People who see war coming devote themselves to preventing it — or preparing for it (e.g., enlistments soar). We see the same in fiction. In When Worlds Collide (a great book, nicely adapted to film) the wealthy Sidney Stanton pours his wealth into a project to save humanity (and himself). So it goes in the hundreds of stories in this genre.

Contract these with an example from history — the world’s closest brush with nuclear war since the Cuban Missile blockade: the Kargil War in summer 1999 between India and Pakistan. Self-serving accounts by US officials describe how close both sides came to exchanging nukes — and their role in preventing that. See The Clinton Tapes and Strobe Talbott’s story. In fact the local people gave no sign of the panic that should occur before a war turns atomic. No surprise, since much of the US intel was (again) wrong. For example, the army Chief of Staff’s memoirs revealed that Pakistan didn’t then have a working delivery system for its weapons.

Conclusion

Here are my speculative conclusions. First, that a large fraction of the apocalyptic scenarios we are told are lies told to influence our behavior. That is, they’re not believed by the experts or activists warning us — but that they believe fear is the easiest and most effective way to influence US public opinion.

Second, I suspect that they’re wrong and that an analysis of the fear barrages of the past decade or two will show a high failure rate. Perhaps we’ve become more discriminating during the past two generations, better able to distinguish truth from fiction. Or perhaps we’ve just become more skeptical, with no better — or even less — ability to distinguish valid from exaggerated warnings.

Given the many perils that face us in the wilds of the 21st century, much depends on the answer. There’s much talk about a resilient and sustainable society, but they seldom mention its cornerstones: a people’s courage and strength of will.

For More Information

If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about fear, about the importance that we have clear vision of our world, and especially these posts:

1. Spreading the news: the end is nigh!
2. Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off!
3. Propaganda: the eco-fable of Easter Island — Jared Diamond warns of the End.
4. Today’s conservative doomster warning (ludicrous but fun) — America will collapse before 2017!
5. The IPCC rebukes the climate doomsters. Will we listen?
6. Apocalyptic thinking on the Left about climate change risks burning their credibility.
7. A warning about the end of the world (doomster scenario #137) — “Industrial civilization headed for ‘irreversible collapse’.”
8. Will we starve after all the bees die?
9. Requiem for fear. Let’s learn from failed predictions to have confidence in ourselves & our future.
10. Threats come & go, leaving us in perpetual fear & forgetful of the past.