Summary: We’re told the OPM hack will have horrific consequences for America. Just as we have been told so many times since WWII, almost always falsely. I expect this too will prove to be a wet firecracker. Here are the reasons why, obvious things few journalists have told you. {1st of 2 posts today.}
Contents
- OPM, our latest bout of hysteria
- An alternative forecast
- Why so much hysteria so often?
- Other posts about the OPM hack
- For More Information
(1) OPM, our latest bout of hysteria
We were confidently told that the revelations of Private Chelsea Manning would cause countless deaths of American soldiers (example). But they never materialized. US authorities confidently predicted even more horrendous results from Edward Snowden‘s revelations. Again, nothing big happened (unfortunately, that “nothing big” includes reforms of the NSA). These are just the most recent in the long list of scary stories the government has told us since WWII.
The latest nighttime story concerns the hack of the Office of Personnel Management database (see the posts at the end for details). A wide range of information has been stolen on tens of millions of Americans, as the OPM announced on July 9…
Social Security Numbers; residency and educational history; employment history; information about immediate family and other personal and business acquaintances; health, criminal and financial history; and other details. Some records also include findings from interviews conducted by background investigators and fingerprints.
What could someone do with this treasure trove? Anonymous government officials, private experts, and amateurs have let their imaginations run wild. Both Left and Right go wild, predicting horrific results. See how fear-mongering brings America together. Here’s my favorite, from John Robb’s Global Guerillas, rebroadcast in the links at Naked Capitalism on July 27.
“I believe this infobomb has done catastrophic damage to US security. How? Big data + bots (made smarter via AI) will be able to turn this data into a decisive instrument of warfare. For example: want that guy on the button to stand down? Call him up with a threat to his family. Threaten to release information on him. …Worse, through automation this can be done on a scale and with a speed far, far greater than what old school spooks are capable of. “Mark my words: This infobomb is a catastrophe.”
It’s a decisive weapon of warfare! Circle July 27 on your calendar and count the days until Armageddon. It’s something to pass the days waiting for attacks by ISIS from their secret base in Mexico (perhaps they’re waiting to attack after the Ebola epidemic weakens us).
(2) A different prediction
My guess is that on this day next year we’ll add the OPM hack to the list of hysteria outbreaks in America which had little or no serious results. There are some good reasons to expect this outcome.
(a) For most of us this information has probably already been stolen; for many of us it has been stolen several times. The New York Times provides a calculator of exposure to some recent data breaches: How Many Times Has Your Personal Information Been Exposed to Hackers? How has this affected you? Probably not at all. How have all these thefts affected corporate America? Minimally.
Stealing millions of people’s basic information is easy for experts, but the swag has little value. Identify theft is complex, and cannot be scaled to hit thousands or millions of people.
(b) Some of this information could be used for blackmail. However jobs and security clearances are not at risk since the information is from the government’s personnel files. How many people will commit treason to keep this information from their family? Or, if the family already knows it, keep it from the public?
(c) Each attempt at blackmail increases the risk of exposure for the agents involved and for the guilty organization or nation. Proving the source of a cybertheft done by professionals is difficult or impossible (see these posts by several experts), despite the confident claims by US officials. Catching someone using the information is easier. The perpetrators should expect a fast and painful US response if the potential blackmail victim calls the FBI. What could China get that’s worth the disruption of trade to their largest customer?
Update: Cyber-security expert Marcus Ranum confirms this analysis, with more detail, In the comment section below.
(3) Why so much hysteria so often?
The easy answer: feeding our fears to the point of hysteria pays. It’s the best clickbait for the media (desperate for clicks in a world with so much excess content). It’s the most effective way to influence American public opinion.
For a deeper insight ask why we respond so strongly to fear, even when based on lies. I believe our future depends on our ability to more clearly see the world, to remember those who have proven wrong in the past, and especially to gain some skepticism about what we’re told.
(4) Other posts about the OPM hack
- About the theft of the Federal government’s personnel records: sorting fact from fiction.
- Seeing behind the headlines about China’s attack, stealing the governments’ jewels.
(5) For More Information
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about cybersecurity and cyberwar, about our many fears, and especially these about bouts of hysteria in America…
- Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off!
- Posts about the fear epidemic of Ebola.
- Will we starve after all the bees die?
- The news as a series of hysteric fits by America. Why? How can we get a grip on ourselves?
- Threats come & go, leaving us in perpetual fear & forgetful of the past.
To learn more about this vital subject, here are some useful sources…
- Marcus Ranum’s presentation “Cyberwar is Bullsh**“.
- Kevin Mitnick’s Ghost in the Wires: My Adventures as the World’s Most Wanted Hacker
- Brian Krebs’ Spam Nation: The Inside Story of Organized Cybercrime-from Global Epidemic to Your Front Door
