Summary: Martin van Creveld’s new book asks hard questions about America’s ability to defend itself as our society undergoes revolutionary changes (mostly undesired by its citizens). It’s provocative reading for those who like analysts that color outside politically correct lines.
“Proclaim this among the nations: Prepare for war! Rouse the warriors! Let all the fighting men draw near and attack. Beat your plowshares into swords and your pruning hooks into spears. Let the weakling say, ‘I am strong!’”
— Joel 3:9-10.
“{Since WWII}, almost the only time Western countries gained a clear military victory over their non-Western opponents was during the First Gulf War. …This episode apart, practically every time the West …fought the rest, it was defeated.”
— Martin van Creveld in “Pussycats”.
Disagreeing with Martin van Creveld’s predictions feels like arguing against tomorrow’s sunrise. His successful forecasts are legion. The Transformation of War: The Most Radical Reinterpretation of Armed Conflict Since Clausewitz
So his new book deserves close attention: Pussycats: Why the Rest Keeps Beating the West
Van Creveld warns that social changes are eroding away the West’s ability to defend itself — reducing its once powerful armies to pussycats. This is probably false as an explanation for the defeats of conventional armies since WWII when fighting non-trinitarian (aka 4GW) armies in foreign lands. It looks prescient as a warning about the future. Let’s examine both perspectives.
About past counterinsurgencies since WWII by foreign armies
The dynamics of war changed after Mao brought 4GW to maturity (details here). The resulting inability of foreign armies to defeat local insurgencies shaped the post-WWII world. It’s a lesson our military refuses to learn (it would reduce the need for their services). Van Creveld clearly explains this in The Changing Face of War
What is known, though, is that attempts by post-1945 armed forces to suppress guerrillas and terrorists have constituted a long, almost unbroken record of failure … {W}hat changed was the fact that, whereas previously it had been the main Western powers that failed, now the list included other countries as well. Portugal’s expulsion from Africa in 1975 was followed by the failure of the South Africans in Namibia, the Ethiopians in Eritrea, the Indians in Sri Lanka, the Americans in Somalia, and the Israelis in Lebanon. … Even in Denmark {during WWII}, “the model protectorate”, resistance increased as time went on.
Many of these nations used force up to the level of genocide in their failed attempts to defeat local insurgencies. Despite that, foreign forces have an almost uniform record of defeat. Such as the French-Algerian War, which the French waged until their government collapsed.
This says the opposite of his thesis in Pussycats. Militaries from the West to the Third World have consistently lost when traveling to other lands to fight local insurgents. They fought well but not wisely. They have sent troops to kill face-to-face, without mercy. They seldom lost on the battlefield, but nonetheless these lost wars. That’s how modern combat works.
An example of how poorly trained and equiped insurgents defeat modern armies, see what van Creveld calls “the power of weakness”. To learn more about this see articles by van Creveld, William Lind, and the War Nerd.
As we see in Afghanistan, insurgents do not regard our troops as “pussycats”. Rather they avoid them, attacking with stand-off weapons (e.g., IEDs). Non-trinitarian/4GW wars usually end with the inglorious departure of the foreign armies, not from defeat — but from the exhaustion of public support at home. As in this discussion after the Paris Peace Talks that ended the Vietnam War…
Colonel Harry G. Summers, Jr. (Chief of the U.S. Delegation): “You know you never defeated us on the battlefield”
Colonel Nguyen Don Tu (Chief, North Vietnamese Delegation): ”That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.”
— From Summers’ On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War
(1982).
Looking to the future
In Pussycats van Creveld takes a devastating — and politically incorrect — look at American society. The increasing dysfunctionality of our society mirrors the physical and psychological weakness of our young people. The high rates of suicide by soldiers (often before combat or even overseas deployment) and PTSD are evidence of this. Add to increasing rates of obesity and drug use, plus decreased interest in joining the military, the result is a possible recruiting crisis for the Army in the next decade or two. Van Creveld outlines his thesis…
“Chapter I examines some of the ways in which modern Western societies raise, or rather mis-raise, boys in particular – from among whom, like it or not, they will have to draw their future soldiers. Chapter II focuses on the way those societies have been doing whatever they can to defang their armed forces. Chapter III looks at the way women — or perhaps I should say the way women are being incorporated into the forces — are devastating those very forces. Chapter IV looks at the unprecedented spread the phenomenon known as PTSD. Chapter V investigates the growing predominance of rights over duties, as well as the way war itself is being delegitimized.”
These concerns are not new. In the 17th century Samuel Pepys wrote about “parade ground” armies being unable to defeat real fighters. When the last rules against gays and lesbians in the services fell in 2011, conservatives (in and out of uniform) gave confident predictions about the imminent collapse of our military. Three decades ago in Starship Troopers
“…citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of ‘rights’ and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure.”
Are van Creveld’s warnings false alarms like those from the past? Or have these warnings finally borne fruit? We will learn the answer in our lifetimes. The powerful social trends that van Creveld describes will not stop soon. Eight years of Hillary Clinton’s presidency will accelerate them (details here), doubly so if the Democrats take the Senate — as they probably will.
So here’s the reason to read Pussycats: to help see America’s possible future. His harsh insights are a ticket to vision, understanding, and preparation. Well worth the few dollars for the book.
“Van Creveld is incapable of writing an uninteresting book.”
— Lawrence D. Freedman (Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London) in Foreign Affairs.
For a preview of Pussycats…
See these articles about Pussycats: Martin van Creveld introduces his new radical book, William Lind’s review, and Lind’s incisive comments. Also see MvC’s Pussycats series of posts…
- Our armies become pussycats.
- Seek and you shall find — Why men fight.
- The Rise and Fall of Empires — Do the cycles of history turn our armies into pussycats?
- Learning to Say “No” to war.
About the Author
Martin van Creveld is Professor Emeritus of History at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and one of the world’s most renowned experts on military history and strategy.
The central role of Professor van Creveld in the development of theory about modern war is difficult to exaggerate. He has provided both the broad historical context — looking both forward and back in time — much of the analytical work, and a large share of the real work in publishing both academic and general interest books. He does not use the term 4GW— preferring to speak of “non-trinitarian” warfare — but his work is foundational for 4GW just the same. See links to his articles at The Essential 4GW reading list: Martin van Creveld.
Professor van Creveld has written 20 books, about almost every significant aspect of war. He has written about the history of war, such as The Age of Airpower
Some of his books discuss the methods of war: Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton
He has written three books about Israel: Defending Israel: A Controversial Plan Toward Peace, The Sword And The Olive: A Critical History Of The Israeli Defense Force
Perhaps most important are his books examine the evolution of war, such as Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict, The Transformation of War: The Most Radical Reinterpretation of Armed Conflict Since Clausewitz
He’s written controversial books, such as Fighting Power: German and U.S. Army Performance, 1939-1945 (German soldiers were better than ours!)
And perhaps most important for 21st century America, his magnum opus— the dense but mind-opening The Rise and Decline of the State
For More Information
Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See other posts about 4GW. Also, here are two of the best books about the transformation of our armies.
