Summary: The next step in computer evolution is machine learning. Practical applications, such as self-driving cars, are moving from science fiction to daily news. But the leading edge is further ahead, with achievements that look like small miracles.
Films showed us the rapid evolution of intelligent machines. Now real life imitates fiction, as the rate of advancement of machine learning accelerates. The renaissance of self-driving cars began in 2003, and has accomplished things not expected for a another decade. But the leading edge is seen in gaming software.
In 1976, Northwestern University’s Chess 4.5 at the Paul Masson American Chess Championship’s Class B level became the first to win a human tournament. In 1978 it achieved the first computer victory against a Master-class player. In 1996 with IBM’s Deep Blue defeated world champion Kasparov in a game. In 1997 it defeated him in a match, 3½–2½. They have continued to improve.
In 2013 Ponanza defeated a professional Shogi (Japanese chess) player. In 2016, Ponanza defeated Takayuki Yamasaki, an 8-dan player (the highest level). In 2017 AlphaGo defeated Ke Jie, the world’s top-rated Go player.
Another step for Machine evolution
“Artificial Intelligence (AI) was the Next Big Thing back in the 1980s but didn’t really deliver for another 30 years because we grossly under-estimated the required computing power. Running Moore’s Law in reverse we can see that one dollar’s worth of computing today cost $1,024,576 back in 1987. …
“{W}e defined AI back then as encapsulating knowledge we already had while AI today mainly means generating whole new data-driven understandings of how the world really works.”
— Robert X. Cringely at his website.
A new paper: “Mastering Chess and Shogi by Self-Play with a General Reinforcement Learning Algorithm” by David Silver et al.
“The game of chess is the most widely-studied domain in the history of artificial intelligence. The strongest programs are based on a combination of sophisticated search techniques, domain-specific adaptations, and handcrafted evaluation functions that have been refined by human experts over several decades.
“In contrast, the AlphaGo Zero program recently achieved superhuman performance in the game of Go, by tabula rasa reinforcement learning from games of self-play. In this paper, we generalise this approach into a single AlphaZero algorithm that can achieve, tabula rasa, superhuman performance in many challenging domains. Starting from random play, and given no domain knowledge except the game rules, AlphaZero achieved within 24 hours a superhuman level of play in the games of chess and shogi (Japanese chess) as well as Go, and convincingly defeated a world-champion program in each case.”
Tom Simonite at Wired describes the next leap forward.
“{Google’s} DeepMind has now revealed the first multi-skilled AI board-game champ. …AlphaZero …can teach itself to be super-human in any of three challenging games: chess, Go, or Shogi {Japanese chess} ….
“But the ability of one program to learn three different, complex games to such a high level is striking because AI systems — including those that can “learn” — typically are extremely specialized, honed to tackle a particular problem. Even the best AI systems can’t generalize between problems — one reason why many experts say we still have a long way to go before machines rival human abilities.
“AlphaZero could be a small step towards making AI systems less specialized. …AlphaZero can learn to play each of the three games in its repertoire from scratch, although it needs to be programmed with the rules of each game. The program becomes expert by playing against itself to improve its skills, experimenting with different moves to discover what leads to a win. …
“Humans are no longer the best players at chess, Go, and Shogi, so AlphaZero was tested against the best specialized artificial players available. The new software beat all three—quickly. AlphaZero required four hours to become world-beating at chess, two hours to reach that level in Shogi, and eight hours to get good enough to beat DeepMind’s previous best Go player, AlphaGoZero.
Colin McGourty at Chess24 gives more detail (much more detail) about this breakthrough.
“20 years after DeepBlue defeated Garry Kasparov in a match, chess players have awoken to a new revolution. The AlphaZero algorithm developed by Google and DeepMind took just four hours of playing against itself to synthesise the chess knowledge of one and a half millennium and reach a level where it not only surpassed humans but crushed the reigning World Computer Champion Stockfish 28 wins to 0 in a 100-game match. All the brilliant stratagems and refinements that human programmers used to build chess engines have been outdone, and like Go players we can only marvel at a wholly new approach to the game. …
“We’ve long recognised our human inferiority, but we could take comfort from the fact that the chess engines that beat us were also the works of human ingenuity and effort. That was about to change. …
“Generic machine-learning algorithms are game-changers, and not just for chess but the world around us.”
Feel obsolete yet? (Wait till AlphaZero learns playing StarCraft 2; trading stocks; writing software; rendering websites; flying drones; running businesses, cities, continents, the Universe.) https://t.co/OcvKgznMJH
— Jan Keromnes (@jankeromnes) December 6, 2017
For More Information
The new industrial revolution has begun. New research shows more robots = fewer jobs. Also see the famous book by Wassily Leontief (Nobel laureate in economics), The Future Impact of Automation on Workers
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about robots and automation, and especially these…
- A warning about the robot revolution from a great economist.
- How Robots & Algorithms Are Taking Over.
- Economists show the perils and potential of the coming robot revolution.
- Three visions of our future after the robot revolution.
- The coming Great Extinction – of jobs.
- Films show us how smart machines will reshape the world.
- Lessons for us about AI from the horse apocalypse.
- A Timeline for the Extinction of Jobs by Machines.
- Stratfor explains why self-driving cars won’t rule soon.
Books about the coming great wave of automation.
Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies
