Summary: Here is a summary of the available information about the incident in the Gulf of Oman, the most complete I’ve seen. It’s not much. Certainly not enough to justify the bold statements made by both sides. But in the past 20 years the US has attacked nations with little more basis than this. This is an expansion of yesterday’s original post, since the news media is (again) not well covering this.
She can’t see much, although war approaches. Neither can we.
Hours after the attack, US government officials declared that they knew who did it. This was long before experts would have much of the forensic evidence, let alone time for analysis.
“It is the assessment of the U.S. government that Iran is responsible for today’s attacks in the Gulf of Oman….”@StateDept @SecPompeo pic.twitter.com/sTIB0p1kCE
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 13, 2019
“Iran did do it and you know they did it,”
— Donald Trump on “Fox & Friends”, 14 June.
SecState Pompeo explained the basis for Trump’s verdict, at his June 13 press conference.
“It is the assessment of the United States government that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for the attacks that occurred in the Gulf of Oman today this assessment is based on intelligence the weapons used the level of expertise needed to execute the operation recent similar Iranian attacks on shipping and the fact that no proxy group operating in the area has the resources and proficiency to act with such a high degree of sophistication. …”
This is the usual pattern. An incident occurs. US officials make bold confident statements, uncritically reported by flag-waving US journalists. Contrary evidence quickly appears.
“‘A mine doesn’t damage a ship above sea level,’ said Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo, the owner and operator of the vessel. ‘We aren’t sure exactly what hit, but it was something flying towards the ship,’ he said.”
— From Bloomberg, June 13.
“The crew is saying it was hit by a flying object. They are saying that something came flying. To put a bomb on the side is something that we are not thinking.”
— Yutaka Kataka, in a video on Bloomberg, June 14.
US Central Command released a video which they say shows “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard removing an unexploded limpet mine from one of the oil tankers targeted near the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the Islamic Republic sought to remove evidence of its involvement from the scene. ” {From AP.} Should they have left the device, whatever it is, on the ship? Does their removing it mean that they placed it? This is interesting evidence, but requires more investigation.
Bellingcat reviews the evidence
This draws no useful conclusions, but is a good summary: “Was Iran Behind the Oman Tanker Attacks? A Look at the Evidence” by Eliot Higgins (managing director of Bellingcat, an open-source reporting website – see Wikipedia), an op-ed in the NYT – “Internet databases confirm much about the incident, but the Trump administration hasn’t provided convincing evidence of Tehran’s culpability.”
A reminder.
Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.
— Latin for “false in one thing, false in everything.” English common law principle (Wikipedia) that “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”
When listening to US officials, especially when talking about military and foreign affairs, remember that they lie. They lie often, boldly, confidently, and without suffering any consequences. Remember the definitive evidence that Iraq had nukes. See the big list of lies by US officials. Remember the immortal (or immoral) words attributed to LBJ about the Tonkin Gulf incident (the fake casus belli justifying our war in Vietnam).
“For all I know, our Navy was shooting at whales out there.”
What might be the goal of this attack?
If this is a false flag attack, the obvious goal is to start a war with Iran. Much as Bush Jr. did with his fake claims of WMDs in Iraq and Afghanistan’s responsibility for 9/11. False flag attacks are frequently used to start wars because they are easy and effective.
- The Ever-Growing List of Admitted False Flag Attacks.
- “False Flags” Are So Common that U.S. Officials Commonly Discuss Them.
America’s Deep State officials have reasons for these wars. But behind them is the insight said best by Randolph Bourne: “War is the health of the state” (1918). Only we can stop them.
My prediction.
During the last bout of war-fever, in 2008 (as the world slid into the Great Recession), I predicted that we would not attack (see my posts). That logic still holds. But the Deep State has grown much stronger, and our military is more “available” now that it has disengaged from Iraq and Afghanistan. I still believe that we will not attack Iran. These episodes serve only to keep the American people distracted from our own affairs – and unsettled.
For More Information
Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also see other posts about threat inflation, about Iran, about our long conflict with Iran, see these posts …
- Threats to attack Iran are smoke. Sanctions on Iran are our tool. Weakening Iran is our goal.
- Vital but lost history: how we overthrew Iran’s democracy.
- Martin van Creveld: An update on Trump’s Saber Rattling in the Middle East.
- William Lind warns about the cost of threat inflation.
By the way, US analysis about Iran has consistently been wrong.
- Fear Iran’s nukes, coming very soon since 1984.
- Stratfor: Iran’s Hard-Liners lose the election. Big changes ahead. – From March 2016. Nope.
- Stratfor: Iran’s leaders face their greatest challenge. – From January 2018. They’re doing OK so far.
- Ellen Wald: Has another revolution begun in Iran? – From January 2018. No revolution yet.
Two good books about Iran.
A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind
Iran Awakening: A Memoir of Revolution and Hope
