Summary: As we begin the next, the third phase of the pandemic (after prevention and containment have failed), we must understand how so much went wrong. America was among the best prepared nations, now we no better than the other developed nations struggling with COVID-19. Seeing our mistakes can help us better cope. Seeing our strengths can maintain essential morale. Also, see my reading recommendation at the end.
I have written for three years about the spreading dysfunctionality of US institutions (public and private). They are falling like a row of dominoes. See this March 2019 post for a description of how and why. But in an amazing display of child-like optimism, in my worst nightmares this did not affect our core public health agencies – the CDC, FDA, and HHS. Nor did I imagine that Team Trump would ignore weeks of warnings from WHO about the severity of the danger it posed and the lessons from China about the steps needed to fight it.
Update, a devastating indictment from the WaPo: “Trump is breaking every rule in the CDC’s 450-page playbook for health crisis.“
I was wrong, as described in Why is Trump not mobilizing to fight COVID-19? Whatever happens next, the first lesson we must learn is that this social decay must be stopped. The Left sees it clearly in our private sector institutions (prescribing government regulation or take-over). The Right sees it clearly in our governmental institutions (prescribing privatization and deregulation). Both serve their political interests, neither see nor have any interest in the deeper problem.
As for the epidemic, we are in big trouble. Due to the efforts of China and WHO, America (and more broadly, the West) had two months to prepare for the epidemic. WHO gave specific recommendations. Results show that time was squandered and advice ignored.
Two more notes, before discussing this institutional failure. First, I will not discuss Europe here, except to note that the rapid spread of COVID-19 shows that widespread testing is not a panacea – and that the other measures WHO recommended are equally essential.
Second, our failure to learn from China results to some degree from our belief in the “yellow devils.” Every post about China’s successful struggle was met here and on social media with knee-jerk responses of “don’t believe them, they’re lying.” Even now, when China’s success is beyond doubt (they are having difficulty finding newly infected people for their drug trials) I see this everywhere (such as this idiotic article today at National Review). A people so blinded by bias and unwilling to learn do not have a good future. Especially when a rival is a nation that, like China, has shown a high degree of competence and social cohesion under adversity.
What caused all these mistakes?
In early January, America was among the best-prepared nations for the epidemic. We had a large number of ICU beds plus our stockpiles of drugs and medical equipment (details here). We had massive wealth not just of money but also of talent and infrastructure in the health sciences. We had made extensive preparations for bioweapon attacks. During the past two decades, the US government had been planning for an epidemic.
Plus we took an early lead. On January 6, the CDC issued a travel watch at Level 1 (“Practice usual precautions”) for China. On January 7, the CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management group. On January 8, The CDC began alerting clinicians to watch for patients with respiratory symptoms and a history of travel to Wuhan. On January 15, “a leading scientist at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention assured local and state public health officials from across the nation that there would soon be a test.” On January 17, the CDC issued an updated interim Health Alert Notice (HAN) Advisory to inform state and local health departments and health care providers about this outbreak and began screening of passengers on flights from Wuhan to five major US airports. On January 31, the Trump administration announced that they were blocking the entry of Chinese nationals and mandatory quarantines on US citizens returned in affected parts of China (this was widely mocked at panicky and foolish).
Yet all this early action was followed by inaction and mistakes by Federal agencies, now well known. The plans were ignored. The FDA and CDC totally screwed up the provision of desperately needed tests (see a WaPo article about this sad story). Even now the CDC and FDA are announcing there is an inadequate supply of reagents used in the tests, a bottleneck that should have been recognized in January. This is inexcusable, since the rest of the world has run hundreds of thousands of tests by now.
Also, screening at airports of people from hot spots was grossly inadequate. Probably worst of all, it has long been clear that only forced quarantines (not the absurd “self-quarantines) and cordons sanitaire are the most effective containment methods. China proved their effectiveness. Yet the US government has not used them, allowing hot spots to form and the virus to spread from these. Now effective containment will probably be impossible.
The common missing element in these errors: leadership. Organizations do not mobilize effectively without strong leadership. Engrained procedures and thinking rule during even the most severe emergencies. That’s why we have elected leaders in charge of experts, not the other way around. Trump has provided the opposite of effective leadership, and this might sink his 2020 campaign. Nobody cares about his excuses – why he worried about his popularity and mocked expert warnings – during such an emergency. For details, see these devastating articles by Daniel Larison at The American Conservative: “Trump’s Botched Coronavirus Speech” and “The Writing Is On The Wall For Trump.” He gives links to other equally brutal reviews of Trump’s pathetic performance.
Update – Even the right-wing editors at the National Review believe Trump has screwed up. See their editorial, “President Trump Needs to Step Up on the Coronavirus.“
Also, what happened to Mike Prence? On February 26, Trump appointed him to lead the government’s response to the epidemic. This was an opportunity for him to build a strong image with the public by exercising the necessary decisive leadership. He has been missing in action so far. Now that window has closed. Trump will have to lead; nobody wants to hear from the VP.
There is one more guilty group. We elected Trump knowing that he was a clown. He skated through the first three years without blowing himself and us up. Whatever comes next, this should remind us of why we need a President who is more than entertaining – more than a figurehead expressing our dreams. We need somebody with experience, demonstrated competence, and character. Today people like that are removed like weeds during the primaries. That is folly America cannot afford.
What comes next?
Nobody can say. Containment worked for China, Singapore, and (apparently) South Korea. Now we will see how public and private health agencies of the US respond to a mass infection. While Federal and State local governments can help, I suspect (guessing) what happens next will result from the actions at the grassroots. How hospitals and clinics, doctors and nurses, community and business leaders, and households respond. We are the strength of America. Now that our national leaders have failed us, what happens next depends on us.
Of course, the economy will have a recession. If the epidemic does not burn out quickly, there will be a depression. These are natural events for which the playbook is known and proven. Let’s hope our economic agencies – and the President and Congress – respond better than they have to the epidemic.
But above all is, as WHO’s Director-General has repeatedly said, the necessity to avoid panic and support each other. Social cohesion is the key in this crisis, as in every crisis.
It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public. These are the best sources of information.
- There is their daily situation report, with detailed numbers.
- The Director-General of WHO gives frequent briefings, which are quite insightful.
- Their daily press briefings have more information. An audio goes up quickly afterwards. A transcript is posted the next day.
Also, see the wealth of information at the CDC website, especially their situation reports.
Posts about the coronavirus epidemic.
- The 2019-nCoV virus shows that we’ve built a better world.
- Hidden news about the epidemic sweeping across America! – How fake news drives out good news.
- Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus – Update about the epidemic, and why so few know the good news.
- Lessons from the coronavirus about climate change.
- Cut thru myths to see facts about COVID-19.
- Blockbuster news from China about COVID-19.
- China shows us a future of the epidemic and the world.
- A devastating epidemic spreads across America.
- COVID-19 goes global. What works against it?
- Soon we’ll see if the US can defend itself again COVID-19.
- A situation report on the hidden news about COVID-19.
- The COVID-19 story: mistakes were made.
- Important: Some good news about COVID-19.
- COVID-19 will hit world economy hard. Here’s how.
- WHO warns America to prepare for COVID-19.
For More Information
Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a powerful and disturbing story about “The Birth of a Holy War.”
Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also, see these posts about epidemics…
- See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
- Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
- Important: A vaccine against the fears that make us weak.
The man who predicted 9/11 also predicted COVID-19
In his 1994 novel Debt of Honor
“Therefore containment is the only option,” General Pickett went on.
“How do you contain a whole country?” said Cliff Rutledge, Assistant Secretary of State for Policy.
“That’s the problem we face,” President Ryan said. “The only way to contain the epidemic is to shut down all places of assembly – theaters, shopping malls, sports stadia, business offices, everything – and interstate travel. To the best of our information, at least 30 states are so far untouched by this disease. We would do well to keep it that way. We can accomplish that by preventing all interstate travel until such time as we have a handle on the severity of the disease we are facing, and then we can come up with less severe countermeasures.”
“Mr Presdient, that’s unconstitutional,” Pat Martin (representing DoJ) sid at once. Travel is a constitutionally protect right. … {But} Mr. President, I do not see that we have much of a choice here. …The Constitution is not a suicide pact.” …
“Thank you” Ryan said, checking his watch. “I am calling the issue on the table.”
Defense, Treasury, Justice, and Commerce voted aye. All the rest voted no. Ryan looked at them for a long few seconds. “The ayes have it,” the President said coldly. …This has absolute nad unconditional priority over any other matter.”
