Excerpt from “Demography and development in Russia“, UN Development Program (28 April 2008) – Excerpt:
Demographic development in Russia that to a large extent has much in common with the European one is characterized by the following trends:
1. It is already for forty years that fertility in Russia cannot provide for the simple replacement of its population; mortality in men of working age is as high as it was a century ago.
2. Beginning from 1992, mortality in Russia has consistently exceeded fertility: the loss of population has amounted to approximately 12 mln individuals and was partially compensated for by 5.5 mln due to migration gains.
3. Should current reproductive trends (low fertility and high mortality) remain, they could lead to a nationwide population of 125-135 mln by early 2025 and as low as 100 mln by 2050.
4. The age and gender structure of the population has been severely distorted, which has and will have negative effects on reproduction.
5. The ageing of the population is continuing, as a result of which the size of the working-age population will fall by up to 1 mln annually already by 2020-25, thus raising the dependent load to 670- 750 and 900-1000 by 2050, which will negatively influence economic growth rates. This will inevitably lead to increasing the retirement age in the near future.
According to the preliminary data for 2007, the number of births increased and mortality went down. But this doesn’t change a principal evaluation of the situation: a favorable trend may continue for another 5-6 years, and then the loss will start to grow. At the moment, there are no grounds to believe that the crisis will be overcome and the size of the population will be stabilized or that the goal of the state to raise the size of population to 145 mln persons will be reached.
… Russia is one of the few countries in the world where life expectancy has decreased in comparison to 1960s levels. Russia is behind developed countries in terms of life expectancy by 15-19 years for men and 7-12 years for women.
The Russian phenomenon of hypermortality comes to be observed primarily in working-age populations: compared to the majority of countries that have similar level of economic development, mortality in Russia is 3-5 times higher for men and twice as high for women.
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Other posts on this topic
Another front in the geopolitical struggles shaping our world (3 June 2008)
“The Return of Patriarchy“ – a classic article about demography (5 June 2008)
For a wide range of studies and articles see the new archive of major reports about demographic change.