Summary: September housing starts were weak, as they have been since the crash. Their failure to recover has been a surprising and large drag on this economic cycle. Demographic change and slow GDP prevent a housing recovery. On the other hand, housing busts create recessions; this slow expansion (without a boom) is more sustainable -- … Continue reading Why New Home Construction Is Slow, And Will Remain So For A Long Time
Summary: Doomsters dominate the news, as they terrify us for fun and profit. Here's good news from the IMF about global food production. See it here; you probably won't see it in the news. Let's not become complacent; the IMF warns of the large challenges that lie ahead. “If current trends continue by the year … Continue reading Good news from the IMF about feeding the world’s people
Summary: Population change remains a favorite topic for doomsters, providing clicks for the news media and thrills for news consumers. For 5 decades we have heard about the standing room only days coming soon for Earth. That's become a tired story, so they've devised a new one… The rapid rise in population has not … Continue reading Doomsters warned of End Times from overpopulation. Now *fewer* people are disasterous.
Summary: This is the second post looking at statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb's insights about "ruin" risks, and what they tell us about climate change. Here we look at his warning about climate change and two factors he ignores: the duration of the climate risk window and the odds of a climate disaster. The danger is … Continue reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb warns us about climate change
Summary: The refusal of housing construction to join the boom has baffled economists and investment experts. Demographic change explains much of this puzzle, and suggests that housing construction -- a major driver of the post-WWII boom -- will remain in the doldrums for several more decades. Boom and bust of the housing market Large file; … Continue reading Why new home sales are slow, and will remain so for a long time
Summary: Scientists soon will start another round in the revolutions shaking society by producing a male contraceptive pill. The effects could be wonderful, improving family planning and helping reduce pollution and minimize climate change. Prepare for the next drop in fertility The average number of births per woman based on age-specific fertility rates. "A variety … Continue reading The male pill is coming. It will change everything.
Summary: Two new reports warn us about the predictable but so far ignored consequences of so many Boomers' retiring with low savings, no pensions (other than SS), large debts -- and long expected lives ahead. Unless we act, the effects will prove painful for not just them -- but also on asset prices and US … Continue reading Poorly prepared Boomers retiring means hard times for them and for America