Today’s must-read article about the war: “The Case for Afghanistan: Strategic Considerations“, Joshua Foust, Registan, 27 August 2009. The second in this series (the first was discussed here); it deserves to be read in full. Please do so, as the Af-pak war may have vast effects on the US and the world. Here are Foust’s conclusions.
- A basic minimal stability in Afghanistan, such that neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda is likely to develop a staging ground for international attacks, whether against neighboring countries or the United States and Europe;
- The permanent delegitimization of Pakistan’s insurgents, such that they can no longer push Pakistan and India toward nuclear conflict;
The first has some degree of plausability. To some extent it seems a way to bring in the “prevent another 9-11” theory (the big lie, discussed in You can end our war in Afghanistan). {text revised 30 August}
Then Foust moves to even bigger justifications. Now we’re preventing atomic war! This might become the major reason for the war, as the previous ones are demolished (i.e., prevent another 9-11, nation-building). As Foust explains:
And lest anyone think it is appropriate to write off the India-Pakistan conflict as somebody else’s problem, it is never somebody else’s problem when nuclear weapons are involved. As Jari Lindholm reminded, India and Pakistan have come a hair’s breadth from nuclear conflict twice over Kashmir. And like it or not, it is a compelling and vital American interest to prevent nuclear conflict in South Asia — which makes “fixing” Afghanistan in some way also a vital American interest.
Regional security is one of those topics that gets mentioned casually by many pundits but never really articulated. It is by far Ahmed Rashid’s most convincing argument, that supporting stability in Centraland South Asia is a compelling interest not just for the U.S., but for the West in general.
When it comes to Pakistan, the big danger is not in a Taliban takeover, or even in the Taliban seizure of nuclear weapons — I have never believed that the ISI could be that monumentally stupid (though they are incredibly stupid for letting things get this far out of hand). The big danger, as it has been since 1999, is that insurgents, bored or underutilized in Afghanistan, will spark another confrontation between India and Pakistan, and that that confrontation will spillover into nuclear conflict. That is worth blood and treasure to prevent
This builds on recent posts by Jari Lindholm at his blog, “The stupidest man on earth”:
- “9/11, American Myopia and Nuclear War“, , posted at his blog, 20 August 2009
- “Breaking: Finnish Blogger Nibbled to Death by Fellow Doves“, 24 August 2009
This sounds serious. How odd it is to learn why we fight only after 8 years of war.
Now that the original reasons are questioned (to put it mildly), the war’s advocates find new reasons to continue fighting. Perhaps we should investigate before declaring Code Red and expanding the war. As we did not during 2001-2003, uncritically believing the “prevent another 9-11” theory, plus Iraq’s ties to al Qaeda and possession of WMD’s.
Some questions
(1) Do the folks involved consider this a serious problem? Do they believe that we’re the solution?
(2) If so, why have their governments not formally asked us for help? (“us” being whoever they believe best suited for the task). Otherwise we’re playing Father Knows Best. Neo-colonialism. Their request for assistance would give our efforts greater legitimacy — to the people in the area, the other nations of the world, and (not least) the American people.
(3) How many of the people in Afghanistan and Pakistan want want our help? Forcing it upon them might destabilize the region even further. Evidence from Pakistan suggests that our efforts are unwanted.
A survey commissioned by Al Jazeera in Pakistan has revealed a widespread disenchantment with the United States for interfering with what most people consider internal Pakistani affairs. … When respondents were asked what they consider to be the biggest threat to the nation of Pakistan, 11% of the population identified the Taliban fighters, who have been blamed for scores of deadly bomb attacks across the country in recent years. Another 18% said that they believe that the greatest threat came from neighbouring India … But an overwhelming number, 59% of respondents, said the greatest threat to Pakistan right now is, in fact, the US, a donor of considerable amounts of military and development aid.
For more on this see The love of an ally is sweet to behold.
(4) What local experts see this danger — and see us as part of the solution? Or is this a theory held only by western experts? Like the domino theory of the 1960’s, where the dominoes themselves did not see the danger.
Update – the story spreads
- “Analyzing the Case for Afghanistan“, Michael Cohen, 27 August 2009
- “Shedding Blood For Pakistan?“, Chris Bodenner, posted at andrew Sullivan’s site at The Atlantic, 30 August 2009
- “The Silliest Argument Yet for Staying in Afghanistan“, Bernard Finel, 30 August 2009
Afterword
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For more information about this topic
To see all posts about our new wars:
Some posts about the war in Afghanistan:
- Why are we are fighting in Afghanistan?, 9 April 2008 — A debate with Joshua Foust.
- Stratfor: “The Strategic Debate Over Afghanistan”, 13 May 2009
- Real experts review a presentation about the War (look here, if you’re looking for well-written analysis!), 21 June 2009
- The Big Lie at work in Afghanistan – an open discussion, 23 June 2009
- “War without end”, a great article by George Wilson, 27 June 2009
- “Strategic Calculus and the Afghan War” by George Friedman of Stratfor, 17 July 2009
- Powerful insights about our war in Afghanistan, part 1, 18 July 2009
- We are warned about Afghanistan, but choose not to listen (part 2), 19 July 2009
- Powerful insights about our war in Afghanistan, part 3, 20 July 2009
- You can end our war in Afghanistan, 20 August 2009
- The love of an ally is sweet to behold, 21 August 2009 — About Pakistan.
- We must stay in Afghanistan to prevent atomic war!, 24 August 2009
