Summary: Stratfor reports on Trump's new strategy for the Afghanistan War, showing its low odds of success. It's a follow-up to my post Why Trump’s plan for Afghanistan will fail. How many US troops will die or be crippled trying to make this doomed plan work? "The United States Sets Its Sights Beyond Afghanistan" Stratfor, 22 August … Continue reading Stratfor pans Trump’s new Afghanistan War plan
Summary: The hit on Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansoor was another short term tactical win in our long war, achieved (like so many others) at a high cost to our long-term strategic position. It's why we've fought the long war since 9/11 with most bad results. Here Stratfor looks at the details of this successful … Continue reading Stratfor: A Small Blow to the Taliban, a Big Blow to US-Pakistani Trust
Summary: The drive for war comes from hawks' terrifying forecasts of what a nuke-armed Iran will do. Similar warnings were made in the past about today's nuclear powers. What does history tell us? Eight in a series; at the end are links to the other chapters. "The US is almost certain to be the first superpower … Continue reading What happens when a nation gets nukes? Sixty years of history suggests an answer.
Summary: Awareness of self is as necessary for war as for other aspects of life. It helps us see what we do, and better understand how others' see us. It's the foundation for a functioning observation-orientation-decision-action (OODA) loop. Our's is broken, so we use our great power ineffectively. Here we look at our use of massive … Continue reading The trinity of US tactics – a constant in our small wars but invisible to us. First, use massive firepower.
Summary: As standard fare the FM website provides analysis of current events. Seeking hidden truths (often in vain) and using these incidents to illustrate larger dynamics at work in America. The Raymond Davis affair is rich in lesson for us. Here we see one obvious explanation what's happening, but ignored by our geopolitical experts and news media. This is the 4th … Continue reading An explanation of the US and Pakistan governments’ odd behavior in the Raymond Davis affair