Summary: Again we attempt to recalibrate our vision of America, adjusting for its incredible rate of decline. People watching its power and money will find the probable future crash a surprise. Not so those watching the decay of its vision, heart, and mind.
The secondary goal of the FM website is to help readers better understand our world, especially current trends and likely futures. A look at the Past Predictions (right ones) and Smackdowns (wrong ones) pages shows three things about the FM website.
(1) We provide a stream of accurate predictions about the near future, on a wide range of subjects, such as correctly forecasting the outcome of our wars, peak oil (2005 was not the peak, but the cornucopians were also wrong), the debate about climate science (much bad analysis and failure to follow norms of scientific procedure).
(2) We gave early attention to subjects now receiving wide attention, such as the increasing success of women over men, the college bubble, and rising inequality in America.
(3) Unfortunately we’ve gotten the big issues about America mostly wrong, being far too optimistic. We’ve re-calibrated (eg, here and here), but inadequately. Today we’ll try again.
America here and now
Waging war requires the State to mobilize resources, the most important resource being the people. Since every action creates a reaction, the process of war shapes the people and the nation, its effects lasting far after the war ends. Now, almost 11 years after 9-11, we can see several effects of our long war. It’s exacerbated existing ailments in US society. As a result we’re rotting, becoming a danger to ourselves and the world. It’s happening faster than I imagined possible.
So far the process has continued with few reactions from our enemies and friends. Even in the Internet age people change their opinions only slowly. Our actions carve away the image of America built during the 20th century, leaving a much darker remnant. We see ourselves as the benign global hegemon, so the coming loss of both leadership and respect will hit us hard.
Rising bloodlust
Years of government propaganda about the ferocity of Islamic fundamentalists, both to the public and internal have had their effect on America, producing hatred and paranoia. We see this in the bigoted FBI training courses (eg, here and here), in the furor over the proposed Islamic cultural center in lower Manhattan (not a mosque; see Wikipedia), and the enthusiastic applause for the ever-expanding US assassination programs (including by drones). It was predictable, and predicted.
- Bloodlust – a natural by-product of a long war?, 11 August 2009
- No longer a danger, but a reality: bloodlust in our minds, an inevitable side-effect of a long war., 25 October 2011
- Bleak news, but vital for us to understand: American Morlocks: Another Civilian Massacre and the Savagery of Our Soldiers, 17 March 2012
As so many have forecast (US intel experts, outside experts, anyone just paying attention), this will not end well. Blind hatred destabilizes our society and clouds our ability to see the world clearly (eg, described in these articles by Glenn Greenwald here and here). And the world sees our increasing fleet of drones flying in defense of petty tyrants over the greater Middle East, our dispatching troops to a growing list of countries (again, most to prop up oppressive, often doomed, regimes). We’re becoming Skynet — killers in the sky enforcing the arbitrary verdicts of a foreign power, beyond appeal or mercy.
Regime Collapse
The growth of empire since WWII has weakened the foundations of America’s Second Republic (founded on the Constitution), as it did to Rome under somewhat similar circumstances. But it appears our Republic might die more quickly.
The evolution from Republic to Empire took roughly a century (starting with the murder of the Gracchi brothers in 133 and 121 BC). At the current rate the death-throes of the American Republic seems unlikely to take 50 years. What replaces it might be better, but today that does not seem the smart way to bet.
For details about the process of regime change now underway see these Reference Pages:
- America’s Empire — mad, unprofitable
- America – how can we stop the quiet coup now in progress?
Who will future historians say caused these things?
While we will get most of the credit, there was a single event that changed the course of America, in many ways intended by its planner. We executed Bin Laden (probably unarmed in his home, anti-heroism dressed up to fool a weak silly people), but even in the grave he may have the last laugh.