Conservatives show us their thinking, not well glued to reality

Summary: As the GOP prepares to shut down the government to prevent millions of people getting health care, it becomes vital to understand how they see America. The answer, obvious to anyone paying attention: badly, as through a mirror darkly. Here we look at a few examples, part of a series about this rogue force in US politics (links to other chapters are at the end).

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Contents

1. The GOP fact gap
2. GOP CEOs have the fact gap
3. Looking at the Right-wing fact gap in economics
4. Orson Scott Card shows us GOP thinking
5. For More Information

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(1)  The GOP fact gap

Paul Krugman describes a serious and topical problem in “The Wonk Gap“, New York Times, 8 September 2013 — Excerpt:

… the widening “wonk gap” — the G.O.P.’s near-complete lack of expertise on anything substantive. Health care is the most prominent example, but the dumbing down extends across the spectrum, from budget issues to national security to poll analysis. Remember, Mitt Romney and much of his party went into Election Day expecting victory.

… And the point is that episodes like this {misinformation about Obamacare} have become the rule, not the exception, on the right. How many Republicans know, for example, that government employment has declined, not risen, under President Obama? Certainly Senator Rand Paul was incredulous when I pointed this out to him on TV last fall. On the contrary, he insisted, “the size of growth of government is enormous under President Obama” — which was completely untrue but was presumably what his sources had told him, knowing that it was what he wanted to hear.

For that, surely, is what the wonk gap is all about. Political conservatism and serious policy analysis can coexist, and there was a time when they did. Back in the 1980s, after all, health experts at Heritage made a good-faith effort to devise a plan for universal health coverage — and what they came up with was the system now known as Obamacare.

(2)  GOP CEOs have the fact gap

“Fools and Fixers“, Paul Krugman, New York Times, 29 September 2013 — Excerpt:

Lydia DePillis has an interesting piece interviewing Paul Stebbins — a CEO who was very involved with Fix the Debt — in which Stebbins acknowledges that business is part of the problem in Washington, and proceeds to illustrate, unintentionally, just why that is. You see, if he’s any indication, big business is completely clueless about both the economics and the politics of the situation.

… {see the article for the supporting evidence and logic}

In short, this particular CEO comes across as completely out of touch with the reality of our economic and political situation. And then he wonders why politicians won’t listen to people like him.

The thing is, I suspect that he’s typical. Corporate America is led by men who may be very good at their jobs (or not, in some cases), but have no grasp at all of the real issues facing America as a whole — the special problems created by an economy stuck in a liquidity trap, the paralysis caused by the radicalization of the GOP. They can throw lots of money at Washington, and it’s effective at tilting policies on microeconomic issues their way. But they have no influence on the big decisions, because they don’t even understand what those big decisions are.

(3)  Looking at the Right-wing fact gap in economics

This problem appears to be growing worse. It quickly becomes evident in discussions with conservatives about simple facts. Economics is the most obvious. It’s a major theme in the comments on the FM website, and frequently appears in email discussions.

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• Conservatives are often incredulous when told that US exports of goods and services are rising — and have been for decades. That US manufacturing output is a stable part of the US economy, not dying (although automation has reduced the number of workers, as it did to farming).
• My favorite example is the frequently heard Americans (especially young Americans) just won’t do real work. This appeared in one thread as a farmer complained that in the 1950s and 1960s he paid kids $4/hour to bail hay. Now he offers $12/hour and “never sees a teenage boy”. Darn lazy kids!  $4 in 1960 adjusted by the CPI is $32 today; that $12 today is equivalent to $1.52 in 1960.
• Another example is the circulation of fake historical quotes among conservatives, almost ubiquitous. For some of the best about guns see The Founders talk to us about guns for a well-regulated militia and Hitler confiscated guns, leaving Germans helpless! Even more interesting is the fake “democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government” quote, discussed here.
• Then their is their delusional confidence for so long in the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, despite evidence neither was going well. Plus blaming Obama for the Status of Forces agreement that ejected us from Iraq, negotiated and signed by Bush.

For another perspective on this see “Conservative-purity feedback loop“, The Economist, 24 September 2013.

(4)  Orson Scott Card shows us conservative thinking

This is worth reading: “Unlikely Events“, by famous science fiction author Orson Scott Card in his Civilization Watch column in The Ornery American, 9 May 2013. It’s too good to summarize. Count how many simple facts he gets wrong about the past. His confident guesses about the future range from unlikely to delusional.

Most of his errors are easy to see. One section is more subtle.

• “Nobody knew that Communism would fall in the Soviet Union”. Robert and Virginia visited the Soviet Union in 1960 and even then could see its crumbling foundations. And many thereafter.
• “Nobody predicted the collapse of Japan’s ‘economic miracle'”. Karel van Wolferen described how and why in The Enigma of Japanese Power (1989); many others predicted trouble on more general grounds.
• He makes similar claims about the tech and real estate bubbles. In fact the papers were filled with warnings that these were bubbles.

All of these were not clearly seen because it was useful not to see them. The first and last examples are especially relevant. In 1976 conservatives prepared the “team B” analysis explaining that the CIA grossly underestimated the Soviet Union’s power, exactly the opposite of the truth. And warnings of the tech and housing bubbles were ignored by conservatives, confident that free-market magic made financial regulation unnecessary (both resulted in part from dismantling of New Deal-era regulations).

This is my favorite line in Card’s rant: “Does it take any particular brains to predict that if Iran is not stopped, they will use nukes against Israel?” No, it doesn’t — since the story about vows to nuke Israel is bogus, and a wide range of experts believe that a nuclear Iran will be no more disruptive than the other nuclear powers.

From simple errors Card then goes off into pure right-wing delusions. Such as this:

“Obama is, by character and preference, a dictator. … Is there any way that Barack Obama could remain president forever, the way Putin has held on to power in Russia?”

Many on the Left plan to boycott the movie “Ender’s Game”. Rather than worrying about the movie, I suggest worrying about the millions of people who share Card’s delusions and indifference to facts that contradict their views.  They have disconnected from the rest of us. Their passion, guns, and aggregate wealth make them influential. Conservatives are a vital part of America. That so many of them have become so strange is a serious problem. I do not believe it is yet clear exactly what this means, or why it is happening.

The GOP’s delusions imply that there is interesting times ahead for America.

(c)  Interesting articles about Ender’s Game and its author:

• “What happened to Orson Scott Card?“, Salon, 7 March 2013 — “For loyal science fiction fans, the author’s slow descent into poisonous politics has been nothing short of tragic.”
• Sample of Card’s right-wing madness: “Unlikely Events“, Orson Scott Card,
• “The full text of the original short story, Analog, August 1977.
• See Wikipedia for a summary of the book, published in 1985; won the Nebula and Hugo awards.
• The Real Revolution in Military Affairs (it’s not what you think), 14 November 2013 — Child soldiers wage many wars today. No as fun as in Ender’s Game.

(d)  Posts discussing Ender’s Game:

• Generals read “Ender’s Game” and see their vision of the future Marine Corps, 7 September 2010
• The little-known dark side of Ender’s Game, 12 September 2010

(8) Trailer for Ender’s Game

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