Summary: Climate change might pose one of the greatest threats to humanity in its history since the supervolcano Toba exploded 70 thousand years ago, almost exterminating our species. Or not. Managing this complex issue profoundly challenges our social and political institutions. We’re failing so far, with no signs of improvement. Here is post #50 in a series documenting this. There’s still time to do better. The stakes are high.
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Contents
- A vital issue reduced to a cacophony
- Conservatives are right about global warming
- Conservatives are wrong about global warming
- Conclusions
- For More Information
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(1) A vital issue reduced to a cacophony
Climate change powerfully illustrates America’s broken observation-orientation-action (OODA) loop, and how this cripples our ability to craft effective public policy responses to our changing world. It’s become politicized, with both sides focused on the success of their side — the truth a secondary consideration.
Comments frequently remind me of this. I posted a comment the skeptics at Jeff Condon’s The Air Vent about the benefits of properly citing the source of graphics. Amazingly, the folks there disagreed. “I don’t think references add much credibility to correlation sorted paleoclimatology..” After all, “climate scientists make plenty of errors on blogs just like the rest of us.” Worth a read of their tribal reactions.
I cited “In the Eye of the Storm“ by James Hanley (Assoc Prof of Political Science, Adrian College). His reply:
“Oh, lord, why did you have to reference me. I’m not on your side.”
This is a mild comment, not serious in itself, but typical of the public debate about climate. The tribe, the side, the team is what matters. Are you with the Kool Kids or against them? Articles are read to determine which side the author belongs to; all reactions follow from that. I doubt Prof Hanley knows anything about my views about climate change, but confidently guesses. That’s the rule seen in the thousands of comments to the 185 posts about climate change on the FM website.(summarized here)
After years of this the public debate about climate change has become a cacophony, leaving a large fraction of Americans with strongly-held but often factually incorrect opinions. For evidence today let’s look at conservative’s opinions about global warming (see links at the end for examination of the Left’s views). Here are two polls which, unlike most, ask fairly scientifically precise questions about global warming.
(2) Conservatives are right about global warming
From a Pew Research poll conducted 9 – 13 October 2013. Red emphasis added.
From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not? Do you believe that the earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels, or mostly because of natural patterms {sic} in the earth’s environment?
The detailed numbers from the Pew Poll:
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- Still good news: global temperatures remain stable, at least for now., 14 October 2012
- Scientists explore causes of the pause in warming, perhaps the most important research of the decade, 17 January 2014
- One of the most important questions we face: when will the pause in global warming end?, 25 August 2013
(3) Conservatives are wrong about global warming
From “Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in November 2013“, Yale Project on Climate Change Communication (2013). Red emphasis added.
“Global warming refers to the idea that the world’s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the world’s climate may change as a result. What do you think? Do you think that global warming is happening?”
After decades of warnings about global warming, an astonishing 23% of Americans believe the world is not warming. Based on other surveys, we know most of these people are conservatives.
Now for the even worse news, showing how ignorance rules in the public about climate change. The 47% of the people who know that the world has warmed over the past 150 years have a wrong opinion about the cause of the warming:
The consensus of climate scientists is, as expressed in the IPCC’s AR5 Working Group I:
“It is extremely likely (95 – 100% certain) that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2010.”
Look here for more evidence that this is a consensus. For research about the 1951 date see When did we start global warming? See the surprising answer.
(4) Conclusions
What a mess. I see no signs that the debate about the public policy response will improve, or come to meaningful conclusions. If so, then the climate will force a resolution. Either some extreme weather — perhaps unrelated to global warming — will spark a change in public opinion. Eventually the climate will resolve the debate. The pause will end, soon or in a few decades, with slow or rapid warming. Extreme weather will increase in magnitude, in forms other than current temperature and precipitation.
What will not happen is accelerated scale and quality of climate research, accelerated preparation for extreme weather (even as seen in the past), or accelerated development of new energy sources.
(4) For More Information
(a) Posts about climate change:
- The important things to know about global warming
- Posts about climate change
- Science & nature – studies & reports
(b) Posts about the public debate on climate change:
- Programs to reshape the American mind, run by the left and right, 2 August 2010
- Climate science: the debate, the eventual solution, and the best cheap seats from which to watch the action., 19 August 2010
- What does the American public want done to fight climate change?, 2 February 2014
- A key to understanding the climate wars (about one of our big weaknesses), 15 March 2014
(c) Posts about climate change as seen by the Right:
- About those headlines of the past century about global cooling…, 2 November 2009
- The facts about the 1970′s Global Cooling scare, 7 December 2009
- Start of another swing of the media narrative – to global cooling?, 11 September 2013
- Global Cooling returns to the news, another instructive lesson about America, 25 January 2014
- A look into the GOP mind: untethered from reality and drifting in the wind, 3 March 2014
(d) Posts about climate change as seen by the Left:
- A note on the green religion, one of the growth industries in America, 17 March 2009
- More attempts to control the climate science debate using smears and swarming, 19 October 2009
- Quote of the day – hidden history for people who rely on the mainstream media for information, 12 February 2010
- The hidden history of the global warming crusade, 19 February 2010
- A real-time example of the birth and spread of climate propaganda, 9 March 2010
- Lies told under the influence of the Green religion to save the world, 30 July 2010
- Puncturing the false picture of a scientific consensus about the causes and effects of global warming, 20 September 2010
- A new video about global warming, a Leftists’ wet dream pretending to be humor, 1 October 2010
- More about the forecast for flooded cities in the late 21st century, 16 October 2010
- Looking into the past for guidance about warnings of future climate apocalypses, 17 October 2010
- Lessons the Left can learn from the Right when writing about climate change, 12 December 2012 — Propagandist Phil Plait
- Fierce words about those “wacky professional climate change deniers”, 20 January 2013 — More by propagandist Phil Plait
- We can see our true selves in the propaganda used against us, 14 May 2013 — Skillful inaccurate article in The Guardian
- A powerful story about global warming in Alaska that’s set Twitter aflame, 23 June 2013
- Climate lies are the tool of choice by both sides to influence your opinion. Why is that?, 11 July 2013
- The North Pole is now a lake! Are you afraid yet?, 3 August 2013
- Climate science deniers on the Left, captured for viewing, 29 September 2013
- Apocalyptic thinking on the Left about climate change risks burning their credibility, 4 February 2014
- Climate change sinks the Left, while scientists unravel mysteries we must solve, 24 January 2014
- The Left sees “Climate buffoons” and “deniers”. What do they see in the mirror?, 7 March 2014
- This is what defeat looks like for the Left, and perhaps also for environmentalists, 17 March 2014
- The Left stages a two minute hate on Nate Silver, Roger Pielke Jr (& me), 29 March 2014
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