Summary: This post discusses the latest climate frenzy, about a coming mini ice age. It’s an excerpt from the latest issue of the Browning World Climate Bulletin, with a review of the facts and an expert analysis by historical climatologist Evelyn Browning Garriss.
As so often happens these days, a press release ignited hysteria about our climate — this time by some journalists and amateur climate skeptics reading “Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo“, about a paper presented by Professor Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno (not yet online). Tyler Pager at The USA Today interviewed Professor Zharkova about this kerfuffle.
No one is more surprised than Valentina Zharkova that her research prompted a worldwide media storm over the next ice age. That’s because her research never even mentioned an ice age. Media outlets got wind of her research and some concluded it suggested the 2030s would be the world’s next ice age because of the drop in solar activity.
“In the press release, we didn’t say anything about climate change,” she told USA TODAY. “My guess is when they heard about Maunder minimum, they used Wikipedia or something to find out more about it.” So her academic theory, to her surprise, began trending on social media and went viral.
To understand the state of science about the influence of the sun on Earth’s climate we turn to…
The Fading Sun? A Mini Ice Age?
Excerpt from the August 2015 issue of the Browning World Climate Bulletin
Posted with their generous permission.
Summary: A science article has sparked another climate change argument. The author theorizes the sun has two cycles that, combined, will reduce radiation and may cause cooling over the next two decades. Here’s an objective review.
One of the sillier debates is whether human activity OR natural factors shape climate. A warning: here at the Browning Bulletin we find the two interact, with different levels of influence on different parts of the globe. (For example, human activity affects urban climate more while natural factors have a bigger influence in the middle of an ocean.) One of these debates is now centered on a very well done science research article.
It is well known that the sun goes through a roughly 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. Scientists have discovered that at the peak of the activity, the solar maximum, the sun gives off increased activity. After peaking, the sun typically goes through three years of increased solar flare and gas emissions, then quiets down. Then the cycle builds up again. During the 1600s the cycle was relatively quiet, with little difference between the peak and bottom of the cycle. More recently, the cycle has been much more active, (The Modern Maximum) with the most active cycle in the 1960s. The current cycle, Cycle 24, has been less active than any cycle in the last 50 years.
Scientists theorize that these sunspots and storms are due to the sun’s magnetic field. This field spins and this magnetizes the gassy star. Like an electric magnet, the sun is a spinning dynamo that generates a magnetic field and the magnetic field lines get tangled and cause swirls and storms in the star’s hot gas.
What hasn’t been explained is why these solar cycles are so different. The cycles in the 1600s (The Maunder Minimum) and the early 1800s (The Dalton Minimum) were relatively quiet. The Earth received less radiation and went through a period of time cooler than now.
Recently the cycle has been active and there has been a lot more radiation. Some scientists claim this is the main reason for the past century of global warming while others claim that the different amount of radiation was too minor to have much of an impact on global climate, especially when compared to human greenhouse gases.
Now a new theory attempts to explain this irregularity. On July 9, 2015, Great Britain’s Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) published the presentation of Prof. Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno. She theorized that the different layers of the sun spin at different rates and there are actually two dynamos inside the sun, both generating separate magnetic fields. Sometimes the two work together and combine to form a very strong solar field. Sometimes, however, the two are out of sync and the fields cancel each other out. The RAS quoted Zharkova as announcing that “Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%”.
What made the article controversial was the authors finding that their model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during the 2022 solar cycle. Then, “During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030- 2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.” They compared this to mechanics that led to the cool Maunder Minimum.
You guessed it – the headlines proclaimed the potential doom of a new mini-ice age. Time to invest in mittens!
Then came the opposing scientific opinions. The Washington Post, for example, quoted Georg Feulner of the Potsdam Institute on Climate Change Research claiming that the reduced solar radiation would only cool the Earth by 0.1°C, an insignificant amount compared to the 1.3 °C heating that he attributed to man-made greenhouse gases {“No, Earth is not heading toward a ‘mini ice age’“}. In short, the argument now has become another man vs. nature argument.
What is significant is that the theory may explain the erratic behavior of solar cycles. It is now going through peer testing.
Even if the author was right, history has shown that a less active sun does not act quickly. It takes one or more entire 11-year solar cycles to start noticeable cooling and other factors, such as the current warm flow of the Atlantic, can mask the effect for years. If the sun stays quiet for multiple cycles, temperatures do drop, sometimes by one or two degree Celsius (up to 5º F), but it took almost five cycles, more than a hundred years, to cause that much of a drop and other climate cycles may also have joined the sun to cause the cooling.
So, if the theory is right, and it might be, a mini-ice age is not in the near future. It doesn’t look as if polar bears will be moving into your neighborhood any time soon.
This newsletter contains articles, observations and facts to support our contention that humanity is significantly influenced by changing climate. Our calculations show the climate, over the next term, will cause dramatic changes in our social and economic patterns. We feel that readers, attuned to the changes that are occurring, may develop a competitive edge; and, by understanding their current and future environment, can use the momentum of change to their advantage.
© Evelyn Browning Garriss
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Update: update the new revision of sunspot history
“Corrected Sunspot History Suggests Climate Change since the Industrial Revolution not due to Solar Trends“, press release from the International Astronomical Union, 7 August 2015.
See the abstract of this important work, and this article about it in Physics World.
About the Browning World Climate Bulletin
For over 35 years, The Browning World Climate Bulletin has been simply the best, most accurate source for long-term climate forecasts. Our subscribers include a diverse group of people and institutions interested in profiting from opportunities presented by changing climate, and those looking to protect their interests that might be affected by changing climate.
They include farmers and ranchers, commodities brokers, large banks and financial institutions, hedge funds, agricultural supply vendors, and people interested in our global climate. See the Bulletin’s website for more information. Download a sample issue here.
About Evelyn Browning-Garriss
She is a historical climatologist who advises everyone from Texas cattle raisers to Midwestern utilities and Canadian banks about what the coming season will bring. She has spent over 30 years as a business consultant, editor and author explaining the impact of changing climate on economic and social trends. Editor of the Browning World Climate Bulletin, Evelyn has authored or co-authored five books on the changing climate’s impact on water supplies, agriculture, business and terrorism.
For the past 20 years she has taught professional seminars, lectured and/or conducted international seminars in the United States, Canada, England, Singapore, Korea, Central America and the Pacific Islands. In addition to her work as editor of the Browning World Climate Bulletin, she does daily consulting and contract research for businesses and investors.
These sections are reposted from their website.
For More Information
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. For more information see The keys to understanding climate change and My posts about climate change. Go here for descriptions and links to some of the research about solar influences on Earth’s climate, including the interesting new research. Also see these posts about global cooling…
- An important letter sent to the President about the danger of climate change, 21 October 2009 — Official NOAA history about global cooling in the 1970s.
- About those headlines from the past century about global cooling…,
- The facts about the 1970’s Global Cooling scare.
- Start of another swing of the media narrative – to global cooling?
- Global Cooling returns to the news, another instructive lesson about America.
- The climate wars get exciting. Government conspiracy! Shattered warming records! Global cooling!
To help you better understand today’s extreme weather
To learn more about the state of climate change see The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change
