Summary: The two previous posts brought us to the edge of analysis about Brexit, beyond which lies guessing. But there are sparks by which we can see what might happen in the next few months. I’ve gathered some of them here for you.
Sunrise or sunset for Britain?
Elites & their courtiers consider it foolish to allow a vote by peons on their fate.
“Why did he do it? Why take such a needlessly cavalier risk with the country’s future and his own?”
— The Honorable David Runciman (Prof Politics at Cambridge) in “Why did he do it?” at the London Review of Books.
The contemptuous reaction to the Brixit vote shows with rare clarity the desire of Europe’s elites to roll back the past century’s shift to democratic institutions. Why should the peons have a say in their fate, interrupting the smooth government by their betters?
When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is “democracy”. Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) June 26, 2016
“IYI”: intellectual yet idiots. It is often falsely used to describe powerful people (and their courtiers) acting in their own interest — usually successfully so.
Brexit might be a rare case of failure by elites when ruling a western nation by fear. But mass hysteria might yet bring victory to UK’s ruling elites.
“We are heading towards the biggest crisis in UK history? Don’t you get this?”
— Hysterical tweet from a British financier. She’s forgotten about Britain’s civil war, Napoleon, WWI, 1930, and Hitler.
Fear-mongering is the primary tool used to influence public opinion on major policy issues. Left and Right, they all use it because it so often works. The Brexit vote represents a rare failure. But the vote is only advisory. The Leave advocates have to win many more battles before an actual victory. Don’t assume that Brexit is all or nothing. In politics few things are binary.
Why did Brexit win?
Glen Newey (Prof Philosophy at U Leiden) gives the best brief answer I’ve seen, in “What will happen now?” at LRB.
“Remain did nothing to cater for those who aren’t doing well, who see little or no benefit in Britain’s EU membership. Scaremongering works least well on people for whom things are already crap, especially coming from those who have made things that way.
“Jeremy Corbyn’s {head of the Labour party} stance made good political sense, as well as being born of sincere lack of conviction. The EU is a technocratic capitalist club. Remain had no convincing story, in fact no story at all, about how it can benefit unskilled and semi-skilled workers and the long-term unemployed, or how the structural tensions between its central institutions and democracy could be resolved. From the Labour leadership’s standpoint it made and makes good sense to lie low while the Tories slugs {sic} the daylights out of each other.
“Liberal Remainers’ fancy that the EU is a benign despotism friendly to worker and refugee alike has proven remarkably resilient to the facts.”
Glenn Greenwald at The Intercept gives a more detailed analysis in Brexit Is Only the Latest Proof of the Insularity and Failure of Western Establishment Institutions”. I am a fan, and agree with his overall analysis — but he imposes his values and concerns onto those of the British “leave” voters. Most importantly, immigration was one of key issues (or perhaps the top one). But Greenwald never mentions it. His blindness is understandable. Support for mass immigration is a defining characteristic of the Left today; Greenwald cannot fairly speak of it.
Politico gives a more detailed and well-supported analysis: “The behind-the-scenes story of a failed campaign to keep Britain in the European Union”. Note the large role of immigration. For more evidence of this see “Why Immigration Pushed Britons to Brexit” by Reihan Salam at Slate.
What about the economic collapse of Britain caused by Brexit?
The core of the “remain” case consisted of predictions of economic disaster for Britain if it left the EU. Such confident doomsterism has become standard fare for political debates in our time, as each side musters economists to show that the desired policy will bring Heaven — or Hell. Obamacare, tax increases, tax cuts, environmental regulations — even, on a smaller scale, safety regulations (mandating air bags was said to begin the End Times for the American auto industry).
The sad reality is that economists are unable to reliably predict the effects of most major public policy changes, as they have little understanding of the drivers of economic growth. The wildly inaccurate forecasts of US growth since the crash — even without massive policy changes — should produce humility in even the most delusionally confident economist (but it won’t).
As for US stock prices — see this by John Hussman (fund manager, was prof of economics at U MI): “Brexit and the Bubble in Search of A Pin“.
What happens next?
The effect of Brexit will depend on the speed and wisdom of its execution. Horrific outcomes are possible from even minor policy disputes, such as that in July 1914 between Serbia and Austria-Hungary. But most policy challenges are met more or less successfully. Our rulers stoke our fears to make us easy to manipulate. This requires our cooperation; do not do so.
Brexit has revealed the foundation of sand under the EU. Europe can use this opportunity to rebuild, as America did after the failure of our first constitution (the Articles of Confederation) — or fragment. It’s a choice.
“Nothing is written.”
— Lawrence of Arabia in the 1962 film.
Posts about Brexit
- Politics of the EU: “Vanity and Venality” — by Susan Watkins (editor of the New Left Review).
- Brexit was logical, neither racist nor irrational.
- An anthropologist looks at Brexit: The World Changed Overnight — By Maximilian Forte.
- The reactions to Brexit show its true significance.
- Immigration: a cause of Brexit, denied by the Left.
For More Information
The brilliant Matt Taibbi wrong a similar analysis at Rolling Stone: “The Reaction to Brexit Is the Reason Brexit Happened” — “If you believe there’s such a thing as ‘too much democracy,’ you probably don’t believe in democracy at all.”
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-reaction-to-brexit-is-the-reason-brexit-happened-20160627#ixzz4Csl9oXzQ
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If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about immigration, about populism, about Campaign 2016, and especially these…
- Must our population grow to ensure prosperity? — Spoiler: no!
- Migration from the south into America: new people, new foods, new political systems.
- Immigration as a reverse election: our leaders get a new people.
- Look at immigration policy to see our government respond to its masters.
- Europe’s elites use immigration to reshape it.
- Sociologist Wolfgang Streeck explains the politics of the migrant crisis reshaping Europe.
