Summary: Europe’s turn to the right continues. Voters in Poland and Germany, now Austria and the Czech Republic, have broken the coalitions that have ruled for generations. Frustrations accumulated, then rising immigration sparked an electoral rebellion. See these Stratfor reports about this week’s elections. They expect mostly business-as-usual results. I’ll bet this is just the beginning. I doubt we can see the end.
Politics before and after this weeks’ elections in Austria and the Czech Republic.
“Austria: After Elections, Euroskeptic Parties Gain a Foothold in Government”
by Stratfor, 16 October 2017. Visuals added.
As expected, Austria’s general elections revealed the popularity of Euroskeptic parties in the country. The center-right Austrian People’s Party (OVP) won parliamentary elections on Oct. 15 with 31% of the vote, according to projections on Oct. 16. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPO) and the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) are neck and neck for the second place, at 26.9% and 26% respectively. (Almost 900,000 postal ballots remain uncounted.) The OVP will soon have to start negotiations to form a coalition government with another party. …
Coalition-building in Austria, however, has often required lengthy negotiations. After the last election in 2013, it took 78 days to form a government. In 1999, it took 124 days.
Kurz may hold talks with the FPO, but he hasn’t ruled out talking with the SPO. Before the elections, the OVP and SPO denied the possibility of returning to their traditional alliance, after their centrist coalition resulted in increased support for far-right parties. Moreover, both the OVP and the FPO shared a common electoral platform that focused on anti-immigration policy, while the SPO focused on economic issues and unemployment.
Yet the FPO’s success in Austria is not unprecedented. Several Euroskeptic parties, after all, have entered the political landscape across the Continent in recent years. Weary of European integration and resistant to EU attempts to centralize power, many parties such as Alternative for Germany and the Northern League in Italy have become powerful political forces in their countries. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party and Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party have even adopted Euroskeptic positions while in government.
The results of Austrian elections confirm the strength of nationalism in the country. If it enters the next government, the FPO is likely to call for less European integration, and to side with nationalist governments in Poland and Hungary. Still, Austria won’t do anything that would jeopardize its membership in the European Union or eurozone.
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“Czech Republic: Parliamentary Elections Put Populist Party in the Driver’s Seat”
by Stratfor, 16 October 2017. Visuals added.
During its campaign, the Czech Republic’s Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) party vowed to cut taxes, increase public spending and curb immigration, while it criticized the country’s traditional political parties. That anti-establishment platform, it appears, resonated strongly with voters during the Czech Republic’s Oct. 20-21 parliamentary elections. With 29.65% of the vote, ANO beat its contenders by a wide margin and earned 78 of the 200 seats in parliament. And though no party came close to matching ANO’s success, the Czech Republic’s center-right and center-left parties fared particularly poorly compared to those representing the far right and the far left.
Now ANO, which is led by Czech businessman Andrej Babis, will have to work on building a coalition. With nine parties earning entry after the vote, the Czech parliament will be fragmented as the winning party strives to gather enough allies to form a functioning government. The populist ANO campaigned strongly against traditional political structures and elitism, making it a potential partner for either far-right or far-left parties, especially since every center-right party in parliament — the Civic Democratic Party, TOP 09 and the Mayors and Independents party — has already vowed not to form a coalition with ANO. Meanwhile, the center-left Social Democratic Party and the centrist Christian and Democratic Union have said that they would consider aligning with ANO, but only if Babis is not made a member of the Cabinet. (Czech President Milos Zeman said on Oct. 23 that he would name Babis as prime minister.)
The European media has been judgmental of ANO and Babis’ leadership in the past, accusing the party of being run like a business and Babis of being its CEO. But though the ANO was firm in its criticism of the European Union and the eurozone during the campaign season, the party isn’t inherently Euroskeptic, and many Czechs see Babis as a pragmatic politician. Now that the elections are over, ANO will probably soften its position on the European Union, though it will continue to oppose the bloc’s common migration policy.
In recent years, the Czech Republic has aimed to strike a balance in its cooperation with fellow Visegrad Group members Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, and its connections with Western Europe. In the wake of the elections, that effort will continue. The Czech Republic has strong trade ties with Germany and is interested in remaining in the EU single market. The country, however, is critical of measures that would weaken its national sovereignty, such as abandoning its currency to join the eurozone. As the European Union discusses its next steps for continental integration, the Czech Republic, along with several other Central and Eastern European countries, will find it difficult to maintain this balance.
“Austria: After Elections, Euroskeptic Parties Gain a Foothold in Government”
and “Czech Republic: Parliamentary Elections Put Populist Party in the Driver’s Seat”
are republished with permission of Stratfor.
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- Europe’s elites use immigration to reshape it.
- Stratfor: How immigration will change German politics, which will change Europe.
- Stratfor: The Refugee Crisis Redefines German Politics. It could get ugly.
- Important: Sociologist Wolfgang Streeck explains the politics of the migrant crisis reshaping Europe.
- The Gatestone Institute tells us the hidden dark stories about immigrants in Europe.
- Stratfor: The Refugee Crisis Redefines German Politics. It could get ugly.
- Germany’s leaders explain what happened and what’s next.
Useful reading to understand the effects of immigration.
See We Wanted Workers: Unraveling the Immigration Narrative
“To many modern economists, immigrants are a trove of much-needed workers who can fill predetermined slots along the proverbial assembly line. But this view of immigration’s impact is overly simplified, explains George J. Borjas, a Cuban-American, Harvard labor economist. Immigrants are more than just workers ― they’re people who have lives outside of the factory gates and who may or may not fit the ideal of the country to which they’ve come to live and work. Like the rest of us, they’re protected by social insurance programs, and the choices they make are affected by their social environments.
“In We Wanted Workers, Borjas pulls back the curtain of political bluster to show that, in the grand scheme, immigration has not affected the average American all that much. But it has created winners and losers. The losers tend to be nonmigrant workers who compete for the same jobs as immigrants. And somebody’s lower wage is somebody else’s higher profit, so those who employ immigrants benefit handsomely. In the end, immigration is mainly just another government redistribution program.
“’I am an immigrant,’ writes Borjas, ‘and yet I do not buy into the notion that immigration is universally beneficial. …But I still feel that it is a good thing to give some of the poor and huddled masses, people who face so many hardships, a chance to experience the incredible opportunities that our exceptional country has to offer.’ Whether you’re a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent, We Wanted Workers is essential reading for anyone interested in the issue of immigration in America today.”
