Summary: An increasing number of people predict that America soon will have another civil war. Here are the reasons America might suffer such a catastrophe, the stronger reason that we won’t, and the more serious threat.
“Sooner or later, everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.”
— Attributed to Robert Louis Stevenson.
As political and social divisions have widened (again) in America, more people ask about the possibility of a civil war in America. That would be our third. First, the Revolution – fought between the third of America who were “Patriots” and the third who were “loyalists.” It was a matter of allegiance. Second, there was the Civil War, fought between geographical regions. Now we might have a war based on clashing values.
We have a clear warning from the Battleground Civility Poll by the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service: “Voters Find Political Divisions So Bad, Believe U.S. Is Two-Thirds Of The Way To ‘Edge Of A Civil War’.”
“The political, racial, and class divisions in this country are getting worse and our national dialogue is breaking down.” 77% yes, 20% no.
“Compromise and common ground should be the goal for political leaders.” 87% yes, 11% no.
“I’m tired of leaders compromising my values and ideals. I want leaders who will stand up to the other side.” 84% yes, 13% no. {Note the contradiction between this answer and that to the previous question.}
“For each one, please tell me if you think this item is very, somewhat, a little, or not at all responsible for the increase in bad behavior in American politics.” {They ask about the usual suspects. They do not ask respondents if we, the American people, are responsible.}
“On a scale of 0 to 100, where ‘0’ is there is no political division in the country and where ‘100’ is political division on the edge of a civil war, where would you rank the level of political division in the country?” {This shows the volatility in public opinion about this, but at high levels.}
- April 2019 mean answer: 94%.
- October 2019 mean: 67%.
A June 2018 Rassmussen Poll found that 31% of likely U.S. voters say it is “Likely” that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, with 11% saying it is “Very Likely.” But this is almost identical to the answers given in Obama’s second year in office. But what would have been the number saying yes in 1968, with America wracked by race and anti-war riots? Probably much higher.
In a NYT op-ed, Charlie Warzel gives a good description of the origin and popularity on the Right of the “coming civil war” meme. For example, in July 2018 Victor Davis Hanson (professor emeritus of Classics at California State University, Fresno) wrote “The Origins of Our Second Civil War.” Other similar essays are last year’s “The Civil War on America’s Horizon” by William S. Smith in The American Conservative, and “It’s Time For The United States To Divorce Before Things Get Dangerous” by Jesse Kelly at The Federalist.
The WaPo gives a more analytical warning about rising risks of civil war (started, of course, by evil conservatives): “In America, talk turns to something not spoken of for 150 years: Civil war.” Then there are ominous ramblings, such as the New Yorker’s “Is America Headed for a New Kind of Civil War?” and NPR’s “Another ‘Civil War’? Pessimism About Political Violence Deepens In A Divided Nation.” But as with most on the Left, Warzel and these other naifs are blind to rising violence on their own side – such as from Antifa.
Why there will be no civil war
If social and political tensions continue to increase – especially during economic downturns – there will be peasants protests. Like the many in the past, the “Million Vet March“, the Occupy and Tea Party Movements. These blow off steam, often resembling a combination of riots and street parties. They are no threat to even slightly competent rulers.
What about the people, mostly but not exclusively conservatives, talking about the Great Day In the Vague Future When We Take Our Guns And Rise Up to Smite Our Oppressors! Bold talk! Are they willing to commit their Lives, Fortunes, and sacred Honor?
What we do know is that few Americans are willing to exert themselves to the slightest degree while waiting for the Great Day. Only half vote in midterm elections. Turnout in local elections, where a vote really matters, are usually half that. Local primary elections, the key step selecting who will run, often have turnouts of 10% (our mayor was elected with a margin of 8 votes).
Americans whine loudly about the choices on the ballot. But few Americans vote in the primaries, which decide who gets on the ballots (I was a poll worker in the October primary; it was dead quiet). Even fewer get involved beyond the bare minimum of voting by donating their time or money – the powerful ways to affect the system.
A more serious danger
The political machinery bequeathed us by the Founders remains powerful, but requires our energy to work. That is something we no longer appear willing to give. Perhaps we should wonder about our right to complain about the system when we do so little to make it work. As I have so often written, apathy and passivity are our foes these days. They brought down the Roman Republic. They can bring down our Republic as well. If we refuse to bear the burden of self-government, others will run American – in their interests, not ours. If we let that happen, let’s not whine about it.
If you do not like that future, let’s try politics before violence. Let’s no hurry to burn America into a third world nation.
“Every nation has the government it deserves.”
— Joseph de Maistre (lawyer, diplomat, philosopher) in a letter dated 13 August 1811, published in Lettres et Opuscules.
Books about a coming of civil war
The Right’s version: Stop the Coming Civil War: My Savage Truth
William Lind’s story about the fall of the USA, and what follows: Victoria: A Novel
The Left’s perspective: American War
For More Information
Ideas! For shopping ideas see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about political violence, about civil disobedience, about reforming America: steps to new politics, and especially these …
- Important: A 4th of July reminder that America is ours to keep – or to lose!
- Fear the rise of political violence in America. We can still stop it.
- America abandons the ideals that made us great.
- Visions of America if the Left wins.
- The Left goes full open borders, changing America forever.
- America isn’t falling like the Roman Empire. It’s worse.
- Important: A new, dark picture of America’s future.
- Bill Lind sees a crack in the Republic. Good for our foes!
Read about a real civil war. It ended badly.
Political Violence in the Weimar Republic, 1918-1933:
Fight for the Streets and Fear of Civil War.
By Dirk Schumann.
It can happen here. The people of Weimar could have avoided it – as we still can avoid it. From the publisher …
“The Prussian province of Saxony – where the Communist uprising of March 1921 took place and two Combat Leagues were founded – is widely recognized as a politically important region in this period of German history. Using a case study of this socially diverse province, this book provides a comprehensive analysis of political violence in Weimar Germany with particular emphasis on the political culture from which it emerged. It refutes both the claim that the Bolshevik revolution was the prime cause of violence, and the argument that the First World War’s all-encompassing “brutalization” doomed post-1918 German political life from the very beginning.
“The study thus contributes to a view of the Weimar Republic as a state in severe crisis but with alternatives to the Nazi takeover.”
