Summary: Oceans of inks have been spilled about the gender gap. Few mention research about its causes, the trends leading to its closure, and how they will eventually put women on top. Here is a new paper about the subtle causes of the gap — and pointing to a very different future for society.
“High School Choices and the Gender Gap in STEM“
By David Card and A. Abigail Payne.
National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2017.
Abstract.
“Women who graduate from university are less likely than men to specialize in science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM). We use detailed administrative data for a recent cohort of high school students in Ontario, Canada, combined with data from the province’s university admission system to analyze the dynamic process leading to this gap.
“We show that entry to STEM programs is mediated through an index of STEM readiness based on end-of-high-school courses in math and science. Most of the gender gap in STEM entry can be traced to differences in the rate of STEM readiness; less than a fifth is due to differences in the choice of major conditional on readiness.
“We then use high school course data to decompose the gap in STEM readiness among university entrants into two channels: one reflecting the gender gap in the fraction of high school students with the necessary prerequisites to enter STEM, and a second arising from differences in the fractions of females and males who enter university.
“The gender gap in the fraction of students with STEM prerequisites is small. The main factor is the lower university entry rate by men – a difference that is due to the lower fraction of non-science oriented males who complete enough advanced level courses to qualify for university entry. We conclude that differences in course-taking patterns and preferences for STEM conditional on readiness contribute to male-female differences in the rate of entering STEM, but that the main source of the gap is the lower overall rate of university attendance by men.”
Summary and Conclusions.
“To summarize our main findings, {we} show the sources of the 13.2 percentage point gender gap in the fraction of newly entering university students who enroll in a STEM program. …
- 2.1 percentage points are attributable to a lower rate of entering a STEM major by STEM ready females than males …;
- 1.7 percentage points are attributable to the slightly lower fraction of females than males
who are STEM ready at the end of high school and the slightly lower fraction of STEM ready
females who enter university…; and - 9.4 percentage points are attributable to the higher fraction of non‐STEM ready females who finish high school with enough qualifying classes to be university ready.
“…In addition to these main findings, our analysis points to several other key differences between female and male students. On average, females have about the same average grades in UP math and sciences courses as males, but higher grades in English/French and other qualifying courses that count toward the top 6 scores that determine their university rankings. This comparative advantage explains a substantial share of the gender difference in the probability of pursing a STEM major, conditional on being STEM ready at the end of high school.
“We also find that females are more likely than males to be on track to take STEM-related courses in their last year of high school, as measured by obtaining a grade of 70 or higher in level 3 academic track math. But fewer of these females take enough STEM‐related UP classes to achieve STEM readiness, so females end up slightly less STEM ready at the end of high school. This slippage presents a potential opportunity for policies to raise the fraction of females who complete three or more math and science courses in level 4, though we suspect that again the forces of comparative advantage may compel at least some of the on track female students to opt out of STEM courses.”
A look at the future.
With 55% to 60% of the undergraduate degrees going to women (and that fraction rising), the role of women seems certain to increase. Especially as the number of women going into STEM fields (and getting graduate degrees) increases. The inevitable result: the pay gap will continue to shrink.
By what date will men be minorities in most high-paying professions? On that date will there still be special enrichment programs for women, special scholarships for women, and affirmative action programs for women? Will the game be reversed, with men the recipients of gender-based aid?
How will this gender ship affect society?
Also – about the mythical shortage of STEM workers.
Corporations want more skilled workers in order to push down their wages. “Shortage” equals good wages. There is no shortage of STEM workers (although there are always shortages in individual fields, due to the lag between a spike in demand and the time required to train people to fill it). See these posts for details.
- The shortage of STEM workers: another bogus crisis crafted to benefit the 1%.
- Ignore the hype. There are few shortages of skilled workers in America.
- See other posts about this bogus story.
About the authors
David Card is a professor of economics at Berkeley. See his website, with his C.V. and his publications.
A. Abigail Payne is a professor of economics at McMaster U and Director of the Public Economics Data Analysis Laboratory. See her website.
For More Information
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about Women, society, and the gender wars, and especially these…
- Women have won the gender revolution.
- Conflict in tomorrow’s offices: strong women clashing with each other.
- The Economist proclaims that men are “The Weaker Sex”.
- Women are moving on top of men in America.
- We might become a low testosterone America. More research needed, stat!
- Women on Top, chapter 10: the growing gender gap in education.