Summary: After one year in office, after 12 months of continuous bombardment by his political foes, Trump’s job approval numbers have held steady for six months (they dropped after the honeymoon). This is key to understanding the current situation in US politics — and what lies ahead in the potentially decisive 2018 and 2020 elections.
Gallup poll of Trump’s job approval.
Six months of saturation bombing of Trump by all the resources of the Left (broadly defined). Psychologists and psychiatrists declare him to be crazy (despite the Ethics Codes of major medical organizations prohibiting remote diagnosis). Academics of every kind condemn him and predict doom if he remains in office. Journalists openly work to undermine his administration. The folks in Hollywood have run 24-7 hysterics. Democrats and Leftists of every flavor circulate daily harangues about his present and future deeds (no story too outrageous, no rumor too weak to circulate, no prediction to fantastic).
Their best ally is Trump himself, whose rants on Twitter provide new proof every week that 28% of America’s 227 million eligible voters made a big mistake by voting for Trump, that 29% made a big mistake by not getting a better Democratic candidate than Clinton, and 42% were derelict in their duties as Americans by not voting.
The result of this commitment of money, work, and political capital: not much, as seen in the above Gallup graph (538’s graph shows much the same picture). Lots of resources and scarce time burned for nothing. No signs here of a looming Democratic Party win in the 2018 elections.
First, David Brooks describes today’s US politics.
David Brooks nails it in his NYT column “The Decline of Anti-Trumpism.” He makes the three key points that define this political moment. First, Trump is a clown — but not the madman or moron the “resistance” describe him as.
“{P}eople who go into the White House to have a meeting with President Trump usually leave pleasantly surprised. They find that Trump is not the raving madman they expected from his tweetstorms or the media coverage. They generally say that he is affable, if repetitive. He runs a normal, good meeting and seems well-informed enough to get by. …
“My impression is that the Trump administration is an unhappy place to work, because there is a lot of infighting and often no direction from the top. But this is not an administration full of people itching to invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Second, Trump the clown distracts the Left from the work of the competent officials he appointed who are quietly rolling back the New Deal — as the Right has planned to do for decades. Now is their magic moment. They have dominance at all levels of government, with the Left in hysterics over Trump, transgender rights, and #meToo. They are using it effectively. Red emphasis added below.
“{T}he White House is getting more professional. Imagine if Trump didn’t tweet. The craziness of the past weeks would be out of the way, and we’d see a White House that is briskly pursuing its goals: the shift in our Pakistan policy, the shift in our offshore drilling policy, the fruition of our ISIS policy, the nomination for judgeships and the formation of policies on infrastructure, DACA, North Korea and trade.
“It’s almost as if there are two White Houses. There’s the Potemkin White House, which we tend to focus on: Trump berserk in front of the TV, the lawyers working the Russian investigation and the press operation. Then there is the Invisible White House that you never hear about, which is getting more effective at managing around the distracted boss. …
“I sometimes wonder if the Invisible White House has learned to use the Potemkin White House to deke us while it changes the country.”
Third, the Left is mirroring the Right’s contempt for truth (of course, since they are both Americans).
“I mention these inconvenient observations because the anti-Trump movement, of which I’m a proud member, seems to be getting dumber. It seems to be settling into a smug, fairy tale version of reality that filters out discordant information. More anti-Trumpers seem to be telling themselves a “Madness of King George” narrative: Trump is a semiliterate madman surrounded by sycophants who are morally, intellectually and psychologically inferior to people like us. …
“This isn’t just a struggle over a president. It’s a struggle over what rules we’re going to play by after Trump. Are we all going to descend permanently into the Trump standard of acceptable behavior?
“Or, are we going to restore the distinction between excellence and mediocrity, truth and a lie? Are we going to insist on the difference between a genuine expert and an ill-informed blowhard? Are we going to restore the distinction between those institutions like the Congressional Budget Office that operate by professional standards and speak with legitimate authority, and the propaganda mills that don’t?”
Long-time readers of the FM website know that this is my top recommendation for the reform of America: we have to reconnect with reality, become less gullible, and more interested in truth (however harsh) than pleasing stories. See my posts in section four of Ways to Reform America.
Second, look to the future.
The Democrats and Left have fired off all their ammo at Trump. This puts them in an almost escape proof box.
They have accused Trump of enjoying “golden showers”, having a perverted relationship with Ivanka, insanity, being a Russian agent (or even “Putin’s puppet“), and every kind of political corruption. Most of these have been stated as fact by the Left; many are described in apocalyptic terms. While a second year of RussiaGate investigations might find a “smoking gun”, the momentum appears to be turning against it.
Slowly most are being disproved (not all, especially the commonplace Presidential financial corruption). What happens if 2020 arrives and the US is still running fine? Their own claims will discredit them. Worse for the Democrats, the economy appears to be accelerating — and that is usually the most significant factor affecting elections (“It’s the economy, stupid.”). Voters might consider these things more important than the more serious long-term effects of the GOP’s rollback of the New Deal (e.g., more pollution, more inequality, etc.).
But what if the Democrats succeeded in forcing Trump out? Then we get President Pence, an experienced (six-term congressman, one term governor of Indiana}, relatively young (58), competent, and hard-working far-right politician (see his Wikipedia entry). Originator of the “Pence Rule”, which millions of men might adopt in response to the #MeToo hysteria: “In 2002, Mike Pence told The Hill that he never eats alone with a woman other than his wife and that he won’t attend events featuring alcohol without her by his side.” {Source: NYT.}
The Democrats can barely cope with Clown Trump. Pence will destroy them. If Pence has a strong economy in 2020, he probably will lead the GOP to a decisive win.
The Democrats are having fun with their successful social revolutions and Trump resistance, but the long-term price might be even further loss of political influence. Seldom has a political party had such incompetent leaders.
For More Information.
Important: To see why the Democrats have been unable to capitalize on the zany antics of Trump, see Matt Taibbi’s typically brilliant analysis.
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about the Trump years in America, about the Democratic Party, about ways to reform America’s politics, and especially these…
- Polarization and hot rhetoric conceal two similar political parties. Will we ever notice?
- Our fears are unwarranted. America is in fact well-governed,
- The good news: America’s politics are neither polarized nor dysfunctional. That’s also the bad news.
- Left and Right use race as a way to divide America.
- Political rhetoric in the age of Trump.
- The Left embraces racism. The result could be ugly.
- Watch the Left and Right move against America.
- Watch the economy, the decisive factor in the 2018 election.
Read these books to better understand our dilemma
Listen, Liberal: Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?
The Great Exception: The New Deal and the Limits of American Politics
