Summary: The recent resignations and firings of Trump’s staff are a large step on the road to the end of Trump’s administration. If so, next comes the era of Pence. Bush Jr. changed America as few Presidents have. The stars might align for Pence to do so even more.
NYT: “Turnover at a Constant Clip: The Trump Administration’s Major Departures“
“President Trump’s record-breaking staff churn does not appear to be ending anytime soon.”
See the amazing graphic.
See Brookings’ comparison of Trump’s turnover to that of previous Administrations.
Turnover in a management team is one of the most serious signs of a dysfunctional organization, a symptom of a deep and large internal breaks. No organization can function well while in continual flux. Worse, this destroys internal trust and can further increase both turmoil and turnover. Performance decays as people either worry about their reputation and jobs. It is the extreme case of a toxic work environment.
Turnover is especially problematic for a president’s team. The pressures are immense, the workload limitless, the range of problems beyond the comprehension of any one (or five) people. A team takes time to form and learn to work together. Constant turnover makes both of those processes difficult. And the more turnover, recruiting competent replacements becomes more difficult. Internal turmoil reduces its ability to deal with both foes and allies. Deterioration in its reputation encourages foes and discourages allies.
Trump survived the first year because of his team. The replacements are quite different. Larry Kudlow as director of the National Economic Council, despite his record of amazingly bad predictions (“he has elevated flamboyant wrongness to a kind of performance art“) and belief in fringe economic theories (details here and here). John Bolton (who plans more large-scale firings) as National Security Advisor, despite his record of as incompetent administrator and advocate of disastrous policies (details here and here).
This rapid and increasing turnover is another factor pushing the Trump administration to its doom. It’s a death spiral.
Now for the bad news
Now the situation grows worse for Trump, with turnover in one team where it could prove fatal. These people deal with foes who will destroy Trump should his team fall behind the situation or make serious mistakes.
“President Trump, whose top attorney handling the Russia probe resigned Thursday, is struggling to find top-notch defense lawyers willing to represent him in the case, according to multiple Trump advisers familiar with the negotiations. …
“The difficulties in finding representation come as the investigation by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III intensifies its focus on Trump’s actions. John Dowd, the president’s chief lawyer in handling the Mueller probe since last year, quit Thursday morning after several strategy disputes with the president, who ultimately lost confidence in the veteran lawyer, three Trump aides said.
“Dowd had been the president’s main point of contact with Mueller’s office, which is investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and contacts with Trump campaign members. Dowd also had been negotiating the terms for the president to sit for an interview with Mueller’s team as it examines whether Trump obstructed justice by seeking to shut down the investigation.
“Despite overtures by Trump’s aides and Trump himself in the past weeks, several lawyers have passed on taking on the president as a client. …’These major law firms have spent millions of dollars on their image,’ said one Trump adviser, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. ‘It’s political. They are saying that representing this president is just too controversial.’ …
“Dowd complained to colleagues that Trump had ignored his advice and tweeted attacks on Mueller and other topics hours after Dowd and other advisers urged him not to, those colleagues said. Dowd also said he was personally insulted by the president’s efforts to hire other lawyers. One person familiar with the dynamics said Trump frequently praised his legal team to their faces but criticized them when they were not around. …
“{Dowd} and the president had been increasingly disagreeing over strategy…. One Trump adviser said the president berated Dowd for not doing enough to, in the president’s view, highlight corruption and political bias in the FBI to undercut the legitimacy of the Mueller probe. …
“At 10 a.m. Thursday, Dowd resigned without consulting Trump, three advisers said. Aides said they were unsuccessful in asking him to hold off until they could confer with the president and prepare a statement. …
“Earlier this month, Trump dubbed news reports of trouble on his legal team as inaccurate. ‘The Failing New York Times purposely wrote a false story stating that I am unhappy with my legal team on the Russia case and am going to add another lawyer to help out,’ Trump tweeted March 11. ‘Wrong. I am VERY happy with my lawyers, John Dowd, Ty Cobb and Jay Sekulow. They are doing a great job.’ Eight days later, the president hired diGenova, and Dowd is now off the team.” {WaPo, 22 March 2018.}
What comes next?
Trump’s job approval remains low but stable. The public does not care about inside baseball matters such as staff turnover. The turmoil has not yet produced ill results visible to the public, but that will happen eventually. The resulting collapse of Trump’s support will initiate the final chapter for President Trump.
The most radical change in the American system since Lincoln
President Trump might spark a change in our politics that is both unexpected and (as it will seem afterwards) inevitable. If his performance leads to a collapse in his job approval ratings, the Republicans and Democrats in Congress might impeach and remove him – putting the solidly far-Right Mike Pence at the helm.
Trump would be the first President removed by Congress, but not the last. Once the precedent is created, Congress might more actively use its power to remove presidents. This would be a large step towards making Congress the power center the Founders intended it to be. It would also make America’s political regime more similar to the parliamentary systems used by most other democracies. That would be good for America.
For more about this see The GOP might impeach Trump, changing our politics forever – for the better.
President Pence
The smartest man in Washington.
Vice President Mike Pence is the natural heir to Trump. He has experience: six-term congressman and one term governor of Indiana. He young (58) compared to the elderly tag-team of Clinton-Sanders-Trump. He is a competent and hard-working far-right politician (see his Wikipedia entry).
See how Pence avoids the firefights around Trump, preferring to act Presidential — patiently waiting to win.
Historians will see the Pence Rule as his break-out moment. “In 2002 Mike Pence told The Hill that he never eats alone with a woman other than his wife and that he won’t attend events featuring alcohol without her by his side.” {Source: WaPo.} Karl Popper said that successful predictions are the gold standard of science. Pence might prove that true of politics as well, if millions of men take his advice in response to the #MeToo hysteria.
Accepting the offer of Trump’s long-shot VP candidacy revealed him as one of the smartest people in DC. Pence has three ways of inheriting the Presidency. First, after an attack on Trump. There have been over 20 attempts to kill US presidents since 1860: six have been shot, four fatally. Second, after Trump resigns or is declared incapable due to health problems (he’ll be 71 on June 14). Third, due to impeachment.
Pence is only 57 years old, easily able to serve up to the ten years maximum allowed under the 22nd Amendment. If Pence has a strong economy in 2020, he probably will lead the GOP to a decisive win.
The Democrats can barely cope with Clown Trump. President Pence would crush them. Imagine competent far-right president driving the strongly conservative Congress, backed by a hard-right majority on the Supreme Court (easily possible in the next few years).
Our ruling elites have long sought to convert America into a stable plutocracy, like mid-19th century Britain. They were frustrated on the eve of success by the Great Depression, WWII, and the Cold War — all forcing mobilization of the citizenry, increasing social mobility and reducing inequality. By 2027 they might succeed, giving us a New America.
For More Information
Useful readings.
- Stephen Walt tells the bad news about Trump’s national security team in “Welcome to the Dick Cheney Administration” at Foreign Policy – “The problem with John Bolton isn’t that he’s an extremist. It’s that he’s mainstream.”
- “Hawks Always Fail Upwards” by Daniel Larison at The America Conservative. Trump’s appointments show our madness.
- See “Will Trump be impeached – or is it just a liberal fantasy?” in The Guardian — “Only two presidents in history have been impeached, but murmurs continue to surround Trump. Here’s how the process would work – if it would at all.” They do not say why liberals fantasize about having the competent and far-Right Pence as President.
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about the Constitution, about ways to reform America, about Trump and the new populism, about RussiaGate, about impeachment, and especially these…
- Trump’s win revealed the hollowness of US politics. Stronger leaders will exploit this.
- Trump is the next logical step as America becomes a plutocracy.
- See the warnings about Trump’s infrastructure plan. It’s betraying populism.
- Debunking RussiaGate, attempts to stop the new Cold War.
Books about impeachment in America – and the case against Trump.
One of the best introductions to impeachment in modern American politics is The Age of Impeachment: American Constitutional Culture since 1960
The latest and most provocative book on this subject is Allan Lichtman’s The Case for Impeachment
“In the fall of 2016, Lichtman made headlines when he predicted that Trump would defeat the heavily favored Democrat, Hillary Clinton. Now, in clear, nonpartisan terms, Lichtman lays out the reasons Congress could remove Trump from the Oval Office: his ties to Russia before and after the election, the complicated financial conflicts of interest at home and abroad, and his abuse of executive authority.
“The Case for Impeachment also offers a fascinating look at presidential impeachments throughout American history, including the often-overlooked story of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment, details about Richard Nixon’s resignation, and Bill Clinton’s hearings. Lichtman shows how Trump exhibits many of the flaws (and more) that have doomed past presidents. As the Nixon Administration dismissed the reporting of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein as “character assassination” and “a vicious abuse of the journalistic process,” Trump has attacked the “dishonest media,” claiming, “the press should be ashamed of themselves.”
“Historians, legal scholars, and politicians alike agree: we are in politically uncharted waters—the durability of our institutions is being undermined and the public’s confidence in them is eroding, threatening American democracy itself. Most citizens—politics aside—want to know where the country is headed. Lichtman argues, with clarity and power, that for Donald Trump’s presidency, smoke has become fire.”
