WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Forecasting with models

Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means these moments of great confidence are periods of high risk. This is a revised post from 2014. “We seem to be living … Continue reading WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future

Blade Runner 2049: see the world through Hollywood eyes

Blade Runner 2049

Summary: This review of Blade Runner 2049 is unlike the ones you see on Rotten Tomatoes. The film, and the critics' reviews, reveals much about us -- perhaps the real value of this boring film and its lavish cinematography. A review of Blade Runner 2049. I watch indie science fiction shorts on YouTube. The key … Continue reading Blade Runner 2049: see the world through Hollywood eyes

Good news about CO2 emissions. Progress to a better world.

Good News

Summary: 2017 has been a good year for news about climate change. Here is more good news, courtesy of the Dutch government. This should be headline news, but it ruins the narrative! Pass it on, for there is too little good news these days. "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning … Continue reading Good news about CO2 emissions. Progress to a better world.

A climate science milestone: a successful 10-year forecast!

Postcards from the frontier of science

Summary:  The gridlock might be breaking in the public policy response to climate change. This gridlock has left us unprepared for even the inevitable repeat of past extreme weather -- let alone what new challenges the future will hold for us. Here is the good news plus some simple measures that can decisively break open … Continue reading A climate science milestone: a successful 10-year forecast!

Irma might defeat the skeptics and end the climate wars

Model of a hurricane.

Houston is under water after the impact of Harvey, a category 4 hurricane. Irma, a Cat 5, might brush by or even hit Miami. Such moments are ideal for a thought experiment (Gedankenexperiment in the original German). How might a catastrophic hurricane season change the politics of the climate change wars -- the debate about … Continue reading Irma might defeat the skeptics and end the climate wars