Summary: See the dreams of our ruling elites. This particular vision of the future is ten years old. See how it has guided American public policy, but so far has proven quite false. Its predictions of the future likely will be equally false. But our elites won’t change course. Only we can force them to take another path.
To survive, we must see the world with wide-open eyes.
One of the big reasons to read Stratfor’s geopolitical reports is that they provide a window into the thinking of our ruling elites (they also provide excellent reporting). Or rather, a smarter and better-informed version of their world-view. George Friedman, their founder, does this better than most. See this excerpt from his 2009 book. It explains why the US so eagerly expanded NATO up to Russia’s borders – absorbing Russia’s traditional buffer states and overthrowing Ukraine’s government to install a pro-US one. It explains their enthusiasm for open borders, although that they see the almost certain eventual disastrous outcome (they believe its too far away to care about).
Of course, even after ten years we can see that many of their dreams are false. Yet in the modern American way, they have not let forces change their plans.
The Next 100 Years:
A Forecast for the 21st Century
By George Friedman, founder of Stratfor (2009).
“There is a borderland between the United States and Mexico, with Mexicans and Americans sharing a mixed culture. …Mexicans on both sides of the border have deep ties to Mexico …Most borderlands change hands several times. The U.S. – Mexican borderland has changed hands only once so far. …
“At a certain point, the status of the borderland simply becomes a question of military and political power. The borderland belongs to the stronger side, and the question of strength is determined on the ground. Since 1848, the political border has been fixed by the overwhelming power of the United States. Populations might shift. Smuggling might take place. But the political boundaries are fixed by military reality.
“Later in the century, the current border will have been in place for two hundred years. Mexican national power might reemerge, and the demography of the borderland on the American side may have shifted so dramatically that the political boundaries might not be able to hold. At that time, it’s quite possible that Mexico may no longer be the fifteenth-biggest country economically, but well into the top ten. Stranger things have happened, and free trade with the United States helps. The countries currently ranked ahead of Mexico include many European countries with severe demographic problems. Given the impact of a potential Mexican-American confrontation on the border, there is no question but that this fault line must be taken seriously. …
“For the United States, on the other hand, it will be merely another fifty-year cycle in its history successfully navigated and another wave of immigrants attracted and seduced by the land of opportunity. Whether they come from India or Brazil, their children will be as American in a generation as previous immigration cohorts were throughout America’s history. This applies to everyone except for one group – the Mexicans.
“The United States occupies land once claimed by Mexico, and its border with that nation is notoriously porous. Population movements between Mexico and the United States differ from the norm, particularly in the borderlands. This region will be the major pool from which manual labor is drawn in the 2030s, and it will cause serious strategic problems for the United States later in the century.
“But around 2030 an inevitable step will be taken. A labor shortage that destabilizes the American economy will force the United States to formalize a process that will have been in place since around 2015 of intensifying immigration into the United States. Once this is done, the United States will resume the course of its economic development, accelerating in the 2040s as the boomers die and the population structure begins to resemble the normal pyramid once again, rather than a mushroom. The 2040s should see a surge in economic development similar to those of the 1950s or 1990s. And this period will set the stage for the crisis of 2080. But there is a lot of history to come between now and then. …
“Outside the United States two powers will be thinking about {outer} space. One will be Poland, which will be busy consolidating its land empire and still smarting at its treatment under the peace treaty of the 2050s. But Poland will also still be recovering from the war and surrounded by American allies. It will not be ready for a challenge. The other country thinking about space will be Mexico, which into the late 2060s will be emerging as one of the top economic powers in the world. Mexico will see itself as a rival of the United States …
“Mexico has never been in a position to attempt to reverse the American conquests. It adopted the view that it had no choice but to live with the loss of its northern land. …This was not because anti-American sentiment wasn’t present in Mexico. It is in fact deeply rooted, as one might expect given the history of Mexican American relations. However, as we have seen, sentiment has little to do with power. The Mexicans were absorbed by their own fractious regionalism and complex politics. …
“By the middle of the twenty-first century, as Mexican economic power rises, there will inevitably be a rise in Mexican nationalism, which, given geopolitical reality, will manifest itself not only in pride but in anti-Americanism. …
“However, as immigration becomes the dominant issue in the United States during the 2070s and the pivot around which the 2080 elections will turn, Mexico will begin to behave in unprecedented ways. The crisis in the United States and the maturation of the Mexican economy and society will coincide, creating unique tensions. …and a dramatic redefinition of the population of the American southwest will combine to create a crisis that will not be easily solved by American technology and power.
“The crisis will begin as an internal American matter. The United States is a democratic society, and in large regions of the country, the English-speaking culture will no longer be dominant. The United States will have become a bicultural country, like Canada or Belgium. The second culture will not be formally recognized, but it will be real and it will be not merely a cultural phenomenon but a clearly defined geographic reality. Biculturalism tends to become a problem when it is simply ignored when the dominant culture rejects the idea of formalizing it and instead attempts to maintain the status quo. It particularly becomes a problem when the dominant culture begins to take steps that appear designed to destroy the minority culture. And if this minority culture is essentially an extension of a neighboring country that sees its citizens as inhabiting territory stolen from it, the situation can become explosive.
“By the 2070s, Mexicans and those of Mexican origin will constitute the dominant population along a line running at least two hundred miles from the U.S. – Mexican border through California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas and throughout vast areas of the Mexican Cession. The region will not behave as other immigrant-heavy areas have. Rather, as happens in borderlands, it will be culturally and in many ways economically a northward extension of Mexico. In every sense but politically, the border will have moved north. …This group will dominate not only local politics, but the politics of two whole states – Arizona and New Mexico – and much of the politics of California and Texas. Only the sheer size of the latter will prevent immigrants from controlling them outright as well. A subnational bloc, on the order of Quebec in Canada, will be in place in the United States.
“At a certain critical mass, a geographically contiguous group becomes conscious of itself as a distinct entity within a country. More exactly, it begins to see the region it dominates as distinct, and begins to ask for a range of special concessions based on its status. When it has a natural affinity to a neighboring country, a portion of the group will see itself as native to that country but living under foreign domination. And across the border, in the neighboring country, an annexation movement can arise.”
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Conclusions
Friedman’s book was published in 2009. Some of the trends he described as happening in the late 21st century are already visible – such as the effects of open borders. This is commonplace in prediction. The “s” curve always surprises people. People experience that long slow base as the natural order instead of the first phase in an accelerating trend. This creates complacency slows recognition, preventing preparation before and fast response after.
But most of this is already looking false.
In 2009, Freidman was optimistic about Mexico’s future. See his rebuttal to predictions (from people like me) that it would become a failed state. Since then the cartels routinely kill senior army officers, judges, and politicians. Recently they defeated an army unit in a recent shoot-out, suggesting they have moved to a stage two insurgency (in Mao’s schema).
His dreams of immigrants’ rapid assimilation are already being proven to be false, as so many experts predicted. See the research.
Not only do we not need population growth to ensure prosperity, but it is also mad to bring in massive numbers of low-education, low skill migrants as a new industrial revolution begins – with waves of automation destroying those jobs. Japan looks like a more logical model for success in the 21st century (details here).
The clock is running against us. We do not have much time to prevent the likely horrific outcomes from following our elites’ dreams.
“So little distant dangers seem:
So we mistake the future’s face,
Even through Hope’s deluding glass;
As yon summits soft and fair,
Clad in colours of the air,
Which to those who journey near,
Barren, brown, and rough appear.”
– “Gronger Hill” by the Welsh poet John Dyer (1727).
Our elites have their dreams, and close their eyes to keep them safe.
For More Information
Ideas! For shopping ideas see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
See Fred Reed’s insightful analysis about Mexico, also from 2009: “La Rubia y la Droga – Notes From an Unknown Planet.”
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about forecasts, about immigration, and especially these…
- Essential reading: See the hidden history of immigration into America (it ruins the narrative).
- Important: Diversity is a grand experiment. We’re the lab rats.
- The lies about immigration keeping the borders open.
- The smoke & fire of the new Sweden is our future.
- Prepare for mass migrants, the greatest challenge to America.
- The Left goes full open borders, changing America forever.
- Choose: open borders or the welfare State?
- William Lind explains how to defend against an invasion.
- Our rulers make a new people for America.
- The devastating economic effect of mass migration.
Three books about immigration
See George Friedman’s (founder of Stratfor) 2009 book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Europe is our future. If we act quickly, we can learn and avoid their mistakes. These two books provide clear warnings.
Reflections on the Revolution In Europe: Immigration, Islam, and the West
The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam
