Summary: The polls dominate the election news, but there are better ways to forecasts of its results. Here is one of the best: aggregating the various forecasting models. The results gives us time to prepare for the Clinton administration. See below for links to posts describing what we’ll see.
Prediction: a landslide for Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College
From the PollyVote website
“The PollyVote is based on the principle of combining forecasts. That is, PollyVote combines forecasts from different forecasting methods, the so-called component methods, each of which relies on different data. The PollyVote forecast is calculated by following a two-step approach:
- Averaging forecasts within each component method.
- Averaging the resulting forecasts across component methods.
“In other words, we use equal weighting of all forecasts within each component method, then equal weighting across these forecasts from different methods. This is the same approach that the PollyVote successfully used to forecast U.S. presidential elections since 2004, and the 2013 German federal election.” {Read the rest here.}
“The PollyVote was launched in 2004 by forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong and the political scientists Alfred Cuzán and Randy Jones. In 2007, Andreas Graefe joined the project. For more information about the team click here.”
Read about their track record and their publications about the PollyVote project. To learn more see their Frequently Asked Questions page. News stories about PollyVote data are automatically generated by software of the German-based company AX Semantics. Here’s how they do it…
Forecasts of the six methods PollyVote uses
History of the popular vote forecasts
Conclusions
This is a volatile election, and only the most sophisticated tools can guide us. So far Clinton looks like a certain winner, albeit with big event risk (e.g., a big terrorist event, a seizure on prime time TV). That’s logical, more so than the small gap in the polls.
Knowledge of the state of the race profoundly influences the race. For example, in a close race candidates take bolder positions and supporters on both sides are more likely to donate and vote. But if PollyVote’s forecast is correct we instead should be thinking about what President Clinton will do in the White House:
- What to expect from Team Hillary in the White House.
- A look at the likely foreign and domestic policies of HRC.
For More Information
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about Campaign 2016, about ways to reform America’s politics, and these about Clinton…
- Forecast: Clinton will crush Trump in November.
- An anthropologist explains why Trump will win in November.
- The five reasons Trump will lose in November.
- A solid leftist shows why Trump might win.
- The best response to Campaign 2016: anger.
Hillary explains what she’ll do as President
From the publisher…
“For more than a year, Hillary Clinton has laid out an ambitious agenda to improve the lives of the American people and make our country stronger and safer. Stronger Together
“Building an economy that works for everyone, not just those at the top. Making the biggest investment in good-paying jobs since World War II, including infrastructure, manufacturing, clean energy, and small business. Making debt-free college a reality and tackling the student debt crisis. Defeating ISIS, strengthening our alliances, and keeping our military strong. Breaking down the barriers that hold Americans back by reforming our broken immigration system, ending mass incarceration, protecting voting rights, and fixing our campaign finance system. Putting families first through universal, affordable health care; paid family and medical leave, and affordable child care.
“Stronger Together
