Summary: Now that both parties have chosen their candidates, let’s revisit my prediction that Clinton will win. Here are the reasons experts will give on November 8 to explain why Trump’s defeat was inevitable. See the facts. Ignore the media hysteria (Trump is clickbait; they need the clicks). See the For More Information section at the end, and the interesting discussion in the comments.
The gap begins its inexorable widening. From Real Clear Politics.
See the 3-way results here, including Johnson.
Many people assume Trump’s success in the GOP primaries — against those odd far-right leaders — mean he’ll do as well against Clinton. That’s wrong. The media need Trump — he’s top clickbait — but the facts are against him. Here is my prediction, building on the available data.
First, the current polls underestimate Clinton’s strength. A large fraction of Sanders’ supporters will back her after she gets the nomination; Trump will push even the Left’s Clinton-haters to pull the lever for her. The former is a standard dynamic in US campaigns; the latter results from Trump’s high and rising “unfavorable” ratings in the polls.
Second, Trump’s power comes from long-suppressed populism. This includes dark elements, such as racism, and re-fighting old battles (such as sky-high rates of immigration). Trump stumbled into populism, and has poorly exploited its themes — instead he runs his mouth off over tangential issues. See Walter Russell Mead’s description of populism’s deep roots in America, and the power of populism to rally Americans abandoned by Left and Right.
Third, Trump has stepped on the big stage where he’ll face scrutiny on a scale greater than by the GOP’s clown chorus. Given his fondness for wacko conspiracy theories (e.g., Obama’s birth), and gullibility. Breitbart repeats the politically useful lie “Hillary Clinton Received Secret Memo Stating Obama Admin ‘Support’ for ISIS“. Trump jumps in…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 15, 2016
The secret memo in fact says nothing remotely like that. See the details here. Trump speaks without thought, without fact, without sense — and A-team journalists have put the cross-hairs on him. Such as James Fallows at The Atlantic, with his “The Daily Trump” column — documenting why Trump is unfit to be President.
Fourth — and perhaps most important — almost the entire American ruling class will support Clinton. The Clinton have been their loyal satraps since Bill was governor. Goldman bought in early and probably got the best deal. Now everybody else, including the war-loving neocons, are jumping aboard. The aggregate power of this motley horde will overwhelm Trump.
Last, Paul Campos (Prof Law, U CO-Boulder) gives a summary of Campaign 2016. The dynamics look unfavorable for Trump.
(1) Trump is a completely undisciplined narcissistic sociopath, who is also none too bright, although he does have a certain animal cunning, along with a version of the perverse charisma that some sociopaths seem to radiate.
(2) He has no campaign organization.
(3) “Make America White Again” wouldn’t be a good campaign strategy even if (1) and (2) weren’t the case.
Therefore, it seems quite probable that by the time the fall rolls around, it will be obvious that Trump will be heading for a historic beatdown, something in the 61-39/58-42 range, i.e., a margin previously thought impossible in these partisan times when too few people can see the wisdom of a Bloomberg-Friedman ticket, and which would certainly cost the GOP the Senate, while seriously denting even their gerrymandered majority in the House.
Update to Campos’ analysis of Trumps’ campaign
The WaPo shows that Trumps’ campaign is failing in almost every way, polling a lows below past losing candidates. He’s begging for money, as Hillary outspends him across the nation. He has not built a national campaign staff, having roughly 30 paid staff across the nation.
Any prediction has event risk, since a shockwave (low probability, high impact scenario) can upset it. A terrorist attack, a sudden recession, another of the endless Clinton scandals (about which liberals claim amnesia), or violence by Hispanics and Leftists — any of these might erase Clinton’s lead.
I predicted in March that Clinton will crush Trump in November, if things run normally. that means a margin of victory of 15%+ in the popular vote (in the top quintile of presidential elections). If Trump continues to stumble, by November his support might include only the Republican core — and the result would be a landslide like 1964 or 1972 (23% margin of victory, in the top decile). That’s unlikely but possible. I’ll give (guessing) Clinton a 95% chance of winning (again excluding big events that tip the scales).
The results? Trump’s defeat will not end the populist resurgence, any more than Barry Goldwater’s defeat in 1964 stopped the conservative resurgence. Trump was the pioneer. Perhaps the next candidate to carry populism’s banner will be better qualified.
For More Information
- Next phase of the Trump revolution: rise of the new populism.
- What the press won’t tell you about Trump and populism — Walter Russell Mead’s famous essay about Jackson.
- Why the Left is missing the rising populist movement.
- The Right struggles to understand Trump and populism.
- Liberals look at Trump and populism, but see only their prejudices.
- Trump wins because he says some sensible things which journalists can’t conceal — You must not see populism!
- Racism is the dark side of populism. Will it divide and defeat us?
- Populism arises amidst workers abandoned by the Left, seeking allies.