Forecasts – possible futures for America and the World

What possible futures lie ahead for America.  We can only guess, but good guesses will help us prepare.

Also see the FM reference pages:

1. Predictions – how do they look now?
2. Smackdowns – corrections & rebuttals to FM posts
3. History – economic, military and geopolitical

Contents

1. Guesses about the future of geopolitics
2. Guesses about the future economy
3. The next wave of automation (aka the robot revolution)
4. About the Singularity
5. Guesses about the future by military and intelligence agencies

(1)  Guesses about the future of geopolitics

1. Forecast: Death of the American Constitution, 4 July 2006
2. The Fate of Israel, 28 July 2006
3. Is America’s decline inevitable? No., 21 January 2008
4. Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future, 2 May 2008 — Remarks by General Michael V. Hayden, Director of the Central Intelligence
5. Good news about the 21st century, a counterbalance to the doomsters, 9 May 2008
6. COIN – a perspective from 23rd century textbooks, 10 June 2008
7. Words to fear in the 21st century: Lǎo hǔ, lǎo hǔ, Lǎo hǔ, 14 July 2008
8. A look at our history – from the 23rd century, 13 April 2009
9. Seeing today through the eyes of a future historian, 25 September 2009 – Looking back at the Af-Pak War
10. “Welcome to 2025 – American Preeminence Is Disappearing Fifteen Years Early” by Michael Klare, 7 March 2010
11. A third American regime will arise from the ashes of the present one, 30 March 2010
12. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order, 4 June 2010
13. A look back at our time from the 2100 A.D. edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica, 24 June 2010
14. Today’s conservative doomster warning (ludicrous but fun), 1 August 2010
15. The good news:  America’s politics are neither polarized nor dysfunctional.  That’s also the bad news., 16 November 2011 — Expect progress in 2013!
16. The story of the early 21st century: the future arrives, forcing us to build a new world order, 6 December 2010

(2) Guesses about the future economy

1. What will America look like after this recession?, 18 March 2008 – More forecasts.  The recession might change so many things, from the distribution of wealth within the US to the ranking of global powers.
2. Some thoughts about the economy of mid-21st century America, 12 January 2009 — Thoughts about future from one of the 20th century’s greatest minds
3. A look at our future, when our $promises$ to ourselves come due, 25 March 2010
4. America on its way from superpower to banana republic, 28 March 2009
5. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order, 4 June 2010
6. Recovering lost knowledge about exhaustion of the Earth’s resources (such as Peak Oil), 21 January 2011
7. Looking into the New Year – what can we look forward to in 2012?, 20 December 2011
8. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?, 28 August 2012

(3)  The next phase of automation (aka The robot revolution)

1. 4GW: A solution of the first kind – Robots!, 8 April 2008
2. The coming big increase in structural unemployment, 7 August 2010
3. The coming Robotic Nation, 28 August 2010
4. The coming of the robots, reshaping our society in ways difficult to foresee, 22 September 2010
5. Economists grapple with the first stage of the robot revolution, 23 September 2012
6. The Robot Revolution arrives, and the world changes, 20 April 2012
7. In Friday’s job report you’ll see early signs of the robot revolution!,  5 December 2012
8. Krugman discovers the Robot Revolution!, 9 December 2012

(4)  About the Singularity

1. Good news: The Singularity is coming (again), 8 December 2007
2. The Singularity is in our past, 29 March 2009
3. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?, 28 August 2012

(5)  Guesses about the future by military and intelligence agencies

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the US Intelligence Community’s (IC’s) center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking.

1. “Air Force 2025“, conducted 1995-1996 for the Air Force Chief of Staff
2. “Global Trends 2010“, National Intelligence Council, November 1997 (revision)
3. “Global Trends 2015“, National Intelligence Council, December 2000 — “A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts”
4. “Mapping the Global Future 2020“, National Intelligence Council, December 2004 — “Based on Consultations With non-governmental Experts Around the World”
5. “Global Scenarios to 2025“, National Intelligence Council, February 2008
6. Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future, 2 May 2008 — Remarks by General Michael V. Hayden, Director of the Central Intelligence
7. “Global Trends 2025“, National Intelligence Council, November 2008 — Here is a brief FM review.
8. “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)“, US Joint Forces Command, released 25 November 2008 — Here is a brief FM review.
9. The Brit Ministry of Defense looks at world’s future – it’s grim, 28 November 2008
10. A National Drug Threat Assessment - 2009, National Drug Intelligence Center of the US Department of Justice, 30 December 2008
11. US Army – the antidote to US civil disorder, 3 January 2009

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