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- Iran – will the US or Israel attack Iran?

This reference page provides links to articles discussing a strike at Iran by the US or Israel.

Contents

Click on the title to jump to that section.

  1. Background Information about Iran
  2. Posts about Iran
  3. About Iran’s nukes
  4. Information operations to build support for war with Iran
  5. About the conflict with Iran
  6. Posts about a strike by the US at Iran
  7. Posts about a strike by Isreal at Iran
  8. Strafor about Iran’s atomic programs
  9. Articles about a war with Iran


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(1)  Background Information about Iran

  1. Iran’s oil and gas wealth“, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, March 2006 (4 pages)
  2. Iran, Country Analysis Brief“, US Energy Information Agency (EIA), October 2007 (17 pages)
  3. Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, National Intelligence Estimate, November 2007
  4. The Future of Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change – Mutual Equities and Enduring Relationships“, RAND, 2011
  5. Archive of IAEA reports about Iran

Not specifically about Iran, but very relevant to this discussion:  Debunking Myths About Nuclear Weapons and Terrorism“, Stratfor, 29 May 2009.


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(2)  Posts about Iran

  1. Is Pakistan’s Musharraf like the Shah of Iran? (if so, bad news for us) , 8 November 2007
  2. War with Iran, based on things that are not so , 9 November 2007 — Why Iran is not necessarily our enemy.
  3. Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger? , 13 November 2007
  4. Iran – a key state to watch as the new world order evolves, 3 March 2009
  5. Update: war watch – Iran, 29 September 2009
  6. More about Iran, things you know that might not be so, 3 October 2009
  7. Stratfor: “Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis”, 7 October 2009
  8. Jeremy Hammond explains why Iran’s New Nuclear Site is “Much Ado About Nothing”, 30 September 2009
  9. Follow-up on America’s latest wetting our pants episode: Iran’s secret atomic facility, 13 November 2009
  10. The CIA’s forecast about the Iranian Revolution – and the revolution prediction tool, 6 January 2010
  11. Stratfor thinks about the unthinkable: a U.S.-Iranian deal, 6 March 2010
  12. About the escalating conflict with Iran (not *yet* open war), 4 January 2012
  13. Have Iran’s leaders vowed to destroy Israel?, 5 January 2012 — No, but it’s established as fact by repetition
  14. What the conflict with Iran can teach us about modern State-to-State war, 16 January 2012
  15. Has Iran won a round vs. the US-Israel?, 17 January 2012
  16. Is Killing Iranian Nuclear Scientists Terrorism?, 19 January 2012


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(3)  About Iran’s nukes

  1. The new NIE, another small step in the Decline of the State , 10 December 2007
  2. ISIS: “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.”, 8 August 2008
  3. Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?, 16 January 2009
  4. Follow-up on America’s latest wetting our pants episode: Iran’s secret atomic facility, 13 November 2009
  5. Iran will have the bomb in 5 years (again), 21 January 2010 — Forecasts of an Iranian bomb really soon, going back to 1984
  6. What do we know about Iran’s nuclear ambitions?, 6 January 2012 — US intelligence officials are clear:  not as much as the news media implies
  7. What does the IAEA know about Iran’s nuclear program?, 9 January 2012 — Their reports bear little resemblance to reports in the news media
  8. What happens when a nation gets nukes?  Sixty years of history suggests an answer., 10 January 2012
  9. What happens if Iran gets nukes? Not what we’ve been told., 11 January 2012


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(4)  Information operations to build support for war with Iran

  1. 4GW at work in a community near you , 19 October 2007 — Propaganda warming us up for war with Iran.
  2. Does reading Debkafile make us smarter, or dumber?, 15 June 2008
  3. The most expensive psy-war campaign – ever!, 13 July 2008
  4. Will trade sanctions work against Iran, as they did against Japan in 1941?, 27 August 2008
  5. Psywar, a core skill of the US Military (used most often on us), 26 November 2008
  6. Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?, 16 February 2009
  7. This is how a nation thoughtlessly slides into stupid wars, 25 July 2010
  8. The Iranian Assassination caper was a complete success!, 17 October 2011
  9. Iran: War Drums Beating, 9 February 2012
  10. Israel leads America on a march to war. A march to folly., 16 February 2012


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(5) About the conflict with Iran

  1. The hidden objective of our alliance against Iran, 11 June 2012
  2. Threats to attack Iran are smoke. Sanctions on Iran are our tool. Weakening Iran is our goal., 14 June 2012
  3. Hegemon at work on Iran, doing what hegemonic powers do. No war needed – or likely., 17 July 2012
  4. Our crusade slowly crushes Iran, and reveals much about us, 8 October 2012

(6)  About a strike by the US at Iran

  1. A 4GW puzzle: what happened in the Straits of Hormuz? , 17 January 2008
  2. Cable Cut Fever grips the conspiracy-hungry fringes of the web , 7 February 2008
  3. Resolution of the Great Submarine Cable Crisis – and some lessons learned , 8 February 2008
  4. Stratfor’s analysis of US reasons for invading and occupying Iraq , 4 March 2008
  5. Will we bomb Iran, now that Admiral Fallon is gone? , 17 March 2008
  6. More post-Fallon overheating: “6 signs the US may be headed for war in Iran” , 18 March 2008
  7. A militant America, ready for war with Iran , 6 May 2008
  8. Another step towards war with Iran?, 7 May 2008 — About Andrew Cockburn’s article in  Counterpunch.
  9. “War With Iran Might Be Closer Than You Think”, 13 May 2008 — About Philip Giraldi’s 9 May story in The American Conservative (see below).
  10. More rumors of war: our naval armada has sailed to Iran!, 9 August 2008
  11. Update on the rumored armada sailing to Iran, 13 August 2008
  12. Stop the presses: no naval armada has sailed to blockade Iran!, 20 August 2008
  13. Proposed legislation prepares the way for war with Iran!, 25 August 2008
  14. Is the War on Terror over (because there are no longer two sides)? Part 1, 3 September 2008 — Rumors of covert ops by us against Iran.
  15. Update on the prospects of war with Iran, from Stratfor, 6 September 2008
  16. Another general advocating war with Iran, 18 August 2009
  17. “Iraq Endgame” by George Friedman, 22 August 2009
  18. Stratfor: “Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis”, 7 October 2009
  19. Stratfor thinks about the unthinkable: a U.S.-Iranian deal, 6 March 2010
  20. Will Obama attack Iran?, 18 March 2010
  21. The rumors about a US strike are proven wrong, again., 12 July 2010
  22. America takes another step towards war with Iran, towards the dark side, 3 September 2010
  23. Continuity and dysfunctionality in US foreign policy (lessons for our conflict with Iran), 13 January 2012 — Insights about today from Cold War strategist Colin Grey
  24. Has Iran won a round vs. US-Israel?, 17 January 2012
  25. Iran: War Drums Beating, 9 February 2012
  26. The hidden objective of our alliance against Iran, 11 June 2012
  27. Threats to attack Iran are smoke. Sanctions on Iran are our tool. Weakening Iran is our goal., 14 June 2012
  28. Hegemon at work on Iran, doing what hegemonic powers do. No war needed – or likely., 17 July 2012
  29. Our crusade slowly crushes Iran, and reveals much about us, 8 October 2012


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(7)  About a strike by Isreal at Iran

  1. Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran , 22 December 2007
  2. Does reading Debkafile make us smarter, or dumber?, 15 June 2008
  3. A new story about a possible war with Iran, 21 May 2008 — About the 20 May Jerusalem Post story, originally reported by Army Radio (see below).
  4. “As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon”. 3 June 2008 — About the Fischer story in the 30 May Daily Star.
  5. “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable” . 8 June 2008  — War-talk by a former Defense Minster of Israel.
  6. Der Spiegel: “Israeli Ministers Mull Plans for Military Strike against Iran”. 17 June 2008 — Rumors in Der Spiegel of a strike by Israel on Iran.
  7. More rumors of a strike at Iran by Israel, 1 July 2008 — More rumors.
  8. Leaks about a possible strike at Iran (this is a hot issue), 7 July 2008 — Leaks of concerns about the effectiveness of a strike by Israel, and the consequences.
  9. The most expensive psy-war campaign – ever!, 13 July 2008
  10. ISIS: “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.”, 8 August 2008
  11. Hot news about a possible strike at Iran!, 3 July 2010
  12. Warning of an imminent strike at Iran by Israel, 4 August 2010
  13. Are Israel’s leaders insane? Jeffrey Goldberg thinks so., 1 August 2010
  14. Has Iran won a round vs. the US-Israel?, 17 January 2012
  15. Is Killing Iranian Nuclear Scientists Terrorism?, 19 January 2012 — By Kevin Jon Heller (Senior Lecturer at Melbourne Law School)


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(8)  Stratfor’s articles about Iran’s atomic projects

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  1. Iran, U.S.: The Intelligence Problem, 4 September 2009
  2. Iran: The Significance of a Second Site, 25 September 2009
  3. Iran Sanctions: An Introduction, 22 September 2009
  4. Iran Sanctions, Part 1: The Nuts and Bolts, 23 September 2009
  5. Iran Sanctions, Part 2: FSU Contingency Plans, 24 September 2009
  6. Iran Sanctions, Part 3: Preparing for the Worst, 25 September 2009


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(8)  Articles about a war with Iran

  1. Deep Background“, Philip Giraldi, The American Conservative, 1 August 2005 — “In Case of Emergency, Nuke Iran”
  2. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better“, Kenneth Waltz, Adelphi Papers #171 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1981)
  3. The Secrets of the Bomb“, Jeremy Bernstein, New York Review of Books, 25 May 2006 — About nuclear intelligence.
  4. The Iranian Challenge“, Trita Parsi, The Nation, 1 November 2007 — “Trita Parsi outlines the steps toward a sane relationship between the US and Iran.”
  5. What Will Israel Do?“, Michael Hirsh, Newsweek, 20 December 2007 — “A unilateral military strike against Iran is much more likely following the latest intel report about Tehran’s nuke program.”
  6. 6 Signs the U.S. May Be Headed for War in Iran“, US News and World Report, 11 March 2008
  7. Secret Bush “Finding” Widens War on Iran“, Andrew Cockburn, Counterpunch, 2 May 2008 — “Democrats Okay Funds for Covert Ops”
  8. War With Iran Might Be Closer Than You Think“, Philip Giraldi, The American Conservative, 9 May 2008
  9. White House denies Iran attack report“, Jerusalem Post, 20 May 2008
  10. As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon“, Joschka Fischer, The Daily Star, 30 May 2008 — Fischer was Germany’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, and led Germany’s Green Party for nearly 20 years.
  11. Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz“, Caitlin Talmadge, International Security, Summer 2008
  12. As Iran Tests Missile Fleet, Experts Map High-Tech Israeli Attack“, Popular Mechanics, 9 July 2008
  13. “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.”, David Albright, Paul Brannan and Jacqueline Shire, Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), 7 August 2008, 15 pages — Here is the link, 2.2 meg PDF.  About the ISIS.
  14. Observing the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group“, Galrahn at Information Dissemination (a professional navy centric blog), 26 August 2008 — At the end is an analysis of land forces (esp Marines) needed to secure the Straits of Hormuz during a war with Iran.  The best I have seen on the subject.
  15. Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities“, Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 16 March 2009
  16. Iran’s New Nuclear Site: Much Ado About Nothing“, Jeremy R. Hammond, Foreign Policy Journal, 27 September 2009
  17. The Iranian Nuclear Program, Sanctions, and the Lessons of Iraq“, Bernard Finel at his blog, 28 September 2009
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