Nigeria, a weak link in the global oil supply

Shell got their money’s worth from this study. Events in Nigeria so far are moving just as the consultants predicted.  That is bad for oil consumers, like us.

Peace and Security in the Niger Delta“, Conflict Expert Group of WAC Global Services (December 2003)

From a story about this study on National Public Radio:

This 2003 report was commissioned by Shell and written by outside consultants. Since it was first leaked, Shell has not disputed the document’s authenticity, but has said it strongly disagrees with some of the report’s conclusions.  This copy, obtained by National Public Radio, appears to have had some language deleted. … The consultants warned that, without big changes to how the giant company works with the government and the communities of the delta, a discontent delta population could drive Shell out of the oilfields by 2008.

This is a form of political peaking.  Nigeria can produce at current rates for years or decades, but political factors might prevent this.

For more information about Nigeria’s oil production, see Wikipedia.

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For more information about Peak Oil

  1. When will global oil production peak? Here is the answer! (1 November 2008)
  2. The most dangerous form of Peak Oil  (8 April 2008)
  3. The world changed last week, with no headlines to mark the news   (25 April 2008)
  4. Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off  (8 May 2008)

Here is an archive of my articles about Peak Oil.

Here are other resources about Peak Oil.