Stratfor’s strategic analysis – “Jihadism in 2010: The Threat Continues”

Stratfor is one of the best public sources in the public strategic analysis and forecasting field, so these reports deserve attention.  However its necessary to remember that they reflect the views and interests of American’s corporate and government elites.  So the detailed material here needs a more objective context.  For that I recommend first reading “Shooting Gnats with a Machine Gun — The U.S. Military, al-Qaeda, and a War of Futility“, Nick Turse and Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch, 14 January 2010.  At the end of this post are links to other posts about al Qaeda.

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Today’s feature article:  “Jihadism in 2010: The Threat Continues“, Scott Stewart, Stratfor, 6 January 2010 — This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

For the past several years, STRATFOR has published an annual forecast on al Qaeda and the jihadist movement. Since our first jihadist forecast in January 2006, we have focused heavily on the devolution of jihadism from a phenomenon primarily involving the core al Qaeda group to one based mainly on the wider jihadist movement and the devolving, decentralized threat it poses.The central theme of last year’s forecast was that al Qaeda was an important force on the ideological battlefield, but that the efforts of the United States and its allies had marginalized the group on the physical battlefield and kept it bottled up in a limited geographic area. Because of this, we forecast that the most significant threat in terms of physical attacks stemmed from regional jihadist franchises and grassroots operatives and not the al Qaeda core.

We also wrote that we believed the threat posed by such attacks would remain tactical and not rise to the level of a strategic threat. To reflect this reality, we even dropped al Qaeda from the title of our annual forecast and simply named it Jihadism in 2009: The Trends Continue. The past year proved to be very busy in terms of attacks and thwarted plots emanating from jihadist actors. But, as forecast, the primary militants involved in carrying out these terrorist plots were almost exclusively from regional jihadist groups and grassroots operatives, and not militants dispatched by the al Qaeda core. We anticipate that this dynamic will continue, and if anything, the trend will be for some regional franchise groups to become even more involved in transnational attacks, thus further usurping the position of al Qaeda prime at the vanguard of jihadism on the physical battlefield.

A Note on ‘Al Qaeda’

As a quick reminder, STRATFOR views what most people refer to as “al Qaeda” as a global jihadist network rather than a monolithic entity. This network consists of three distinct entities.

The first is a core vanguard organization, which we frequently refer to as al Qaeda prime or the al Qaeda core. The al Qaeda core is comprised of Osama bin Laden and his small circle of close, trusted associates, such as Ayman al-Zawahiri. Due to intense pressure by the U.S. government and its allies, this core group has been reduced in size since 9/11 and remains relatively small because of operational security concerns. This insular group is laying low in Pakistan near the Afghan border and comprises only a small portion of the larger jihadist universe.

The second layer of the network is composed of local or regional terrorist or insurgent groups that have adopted jihadist ideology. Some of these groups have publicly claimed allegiance to bin Laden and the al Qaeda core and become what we refer to as franchise groups, like al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) or al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Other groups may adopt some or all of al Qaeda’s jihadist ideology and cooperate with the core group, but they will maintain their independence for a variety of reasons. Such groups include the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Harkat-ul-Jihad e-Islami (HUJI). Indeed, in the case of some larger organizations such as LeT, some of the group’s factions may actually oppose close cooperation with al Qaeda.

The third and broadest layer of the network is the grassroots jihadist movement, that is, people inspired by the al Qaeda core and the franchise groups but who may have little or no actual connection to these groups.As we move down this hierarchy, we also move down in operational capability and expertise in what we call terrorist tradecraft — the set of skills required to conduct a terrorist attack. The operatives belonging to the al Qaeda core are generally better trained than their regional counterparts, and both of these layers tend to be far better trained than the grassroots operatives. Indeed, many grassroots operatives travel to places like Pakistan and Yemen in order to seek training from these other groups.  The Internet has long proved to be an important tool for these groups to reach out to potential grassroots operatives. Jihadist chat rooms and Web sites provide indoctrination in jihadist ideology and also serve as a means for aspiring jihadists to make contact with like-minded individuals and even the jihadist groups themselves.

2009 Forecast Review

Overall, our 2009 forecast was fairly accurate. As noted above, we wrote that the United States would continue its operations to decapitate the al Qaeda core and that this would cause the group to be marginalized from the physical jihad, and that has happened.  While we missed forecasting the resurgence of jihadist militant groups in Yemen and Somalia in 2008, in our 2009 forecast we covered these two countries carefully. We wrote that the al Qaeda franchises in Yemen had taken a hit in 2008 but that they could recover in 2009 given the opportunity. Indeed, the groups received a significant boost when they merged into a single group that also incorporated the remnants of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, which had been forced by Saudi security to flee the country. We closely followed this new group, which named itself al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and STRATFOR was the first organization we know of to discuss the threat AQAP posed to civil aviation when we raised this subject on Sept. 2 and elaborated on it Sept. 16, in an analysis titled Convergence: The Challenge of Aviation Security. That threat manifested itself in the attempt to destroy an airliner traveling from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day 2009 — an operation that very nearly succeeded.

Regarding Somalia, we have also been closely following al Shabaab and the other jihadist groups there, such as Hizbul Islam. Al Shabaab publicly pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden in September 2009 and therefore has formally joined the ranks of al Qaeda’s regional franchise groups. However, as we forecast last January, while the instability present in Somalia provides al Shabaab the opportunity to flourish, the factionalization of the country (including the jihadist groups operating there) has also served to keep al Shabaab from dominating the other actors and assuming control of the country.

We also forecast that, while Iraq had been relatively quiet in 2008, the level of violence there could surge in 2009 due to the Awakening Councils being taken off the U.S. payroll and having their control transferred to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government, which might not pay them and integrate them into the armed forces. Indeed, since August, we have seen three waves of major coordinated attacks against Iraqi ministry buildings in Baghdad linked to the al Qaeda affiliate in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq. Since this violence is tied to the political situation in Iraq, and there is a clear correlation between the funds being cut to the Awakening Councils and these attacks, we anticipate that this violence will continue through the parliamentary elections in March. The attacks could even continue after that, if the Sunni powers in Iraq deem that their interests are not being addressed appropriately.

As in 2008, we paid close attention in 2009 to the situation in Pakistan. This not only was because Pakistan is the home of the al Qaeda core’s leadership but also because of the threat that the TTP and the other jihadist groups in the country posed to the stability of the nuclear-armed state. As we watched Pakistan for signs that it was becoming a failed state, we noted that the government was actually making considerable headway in its fight against its jihadist insurgency. Indeed, by late in the year, the Pakistanis had launched not only a successful offensive in Swat and the adjacent districts but also an offensive into South Waziristan, the heart of the TTP’s territory.

We also forecast that the bulk of the attacks worldwide in 2009 would be conducted by regional jihadist franchise groups and, to a lesser extent, grassroots jihadists, rather than the al Qaeda core, which was correct. In relation to attacks against the United States, we wrote that we did not see a strategic threat to the United States from the jihadists, but that the threat of simple attacks against soft targets remained in 2009. We said we had been surprised that there were no such attacks in 2008 but that, given the vulnerabilities that existed and the ease with which such attacks could be conducted, we believed they were certainly possible. During 2009, we did see simple attacks by grassroots operatives in Little Rock, Arkansas, and at Fort Hood, Texas, along with several other grassroots plots thwarted by authorities.

Forecast for 2010

In the coming year we believe that, globally, we will see many of the trends continue from last year.

We believe that the al Qaeda core will continue to be marginalized on the physical battlefield and struggle to remain relevant on the ideological battlefield.

The regional jihadist franchise groups will continue to be at the vanguard of the physical battle, and the grassroots operatives will remain a persistent, though lower-level, threat.  One thing we noticed in recent months was that the regional groups were becoming more transnational in their attacks, with AQAP involved in the attack on Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in Saudi Arabia as well as the trans-Atlantic airliner bombing plot on Christmas Day. Additionally, we saw HUJI planning an attack against the Jyllands-Posten newspaper and cartoonist Kurt Westergaard in Denmark, and on Jan. 1, 2010, a Somali man reportedly associated with al Shabaab broke into Westergaard’s home armed with an axe and knife and allegedly tried to kill him. We believe that in 2010 we will see more examples of regional groups like al Shabaab and AQAP reaching out to become more transnational, perhaps even conducting attacks in the United States and Europe.

We also believe that, due to the open nature of the U.S. and European societies and the ease of conducting attacks against them, we will see more grassroots plots, if not successful attacks, in the United States and Europe in the coming year. The concept behind AQAP leader Nasir al-Wahayshi’s article calling for jihadists to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets may be gaining popularity among grassroots jihadists. Certainly, the above-mentioned attack in Denmark involving an axe and knife was simple in nature. It could also have been deadly had the cartoonist not had a panic room within his residence. We will be watching for more simple attacks.As far as targets, we believe that they will remain largely the same for 2010. Soft targets such as hotels will continue to be popular, since most jihadists lack the ability to attack hard targets outside of conflict zones. However, jihadists have demonstrated a continuing fixation on attacking commercial aviation targets, and we can anticipate additional plots and attacks focusing on aircraft.

Regionally, we will be watching for the following:

Pakistan

Can the United States find and kill the al Qaeda core’s leadership? A Pakistani official told the Chinese Xinhua news agency on Jan. 4 that terrorism will come to an end in Pakistan in 2010, but we are not nearly so optimistic. Even though the military has made good progress in its South Waziristan offensive, most of the militants moved to other areas of Pakistan rather than engage in frontal combat with Pakistan’s army. The area along the border with Pakistan is rugged and has proved hard to pacify for hundreds of years. We don’t think the Pakistanis will be able to bring the area under control in only one year. Clearly, the Pakistanis have made progress, but they are not out of the woods. The TTP has launched a number of attacks in the Punjabi core of Pakistan (and in Karachi) and we see no end to this violence in 2010.

Afghanistan

We will continue to closely monitor jihadist actors in this war-torn country. Our forecast for this conflict is included in our Annual Forecast 2010, published on Jan. 4.

Yemen

We will be watching closely to see if AQAP will follow the normal jihadist group lifespan of making a big splash, coming to the notice of the world and then being hit heavily by the host government with U.S. support. This pattern was exhibited a few years back by AQAP’s Saudi al Qaeda brethren, and judging by the operations in Yemen over the past month, it looks like 2010 might be a tough year for the group. It is important to note that the strikes against the group on Dec. 17 and Dec. 24 predated the Christmas bombing attempt, and the pressure on them will undoubtedly be ratcheted up considerably in the wake of that attack. Even as the memory of the Christmas Day attack begins to fade in the media and political circles, the focus on Yemen will continue in the counterterrorism community.

Indonesia

Can Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad find an effective leader to guide it back from the edge of destruction after the death of Noordin Mohammad Top and the deaths or captures of several of his top lieutenants? Or will the Indonesians be able to enjoy further success against the group’s surviving members?

North Africa

Will AQIM continue to shy away from the al Qaeda core’s targeting philosophy and essentially function as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat with a different name in Algeria? Or will AQIM shift back toward al Qaeda’s philosophy of attacking the far enemy and using suicide bombers and large vehicle bombs? In Mauritania, Niger and Mali, will the AQIM-affiliated cells there be able to progress beyond amateurish attacks and petty banditry to become a credible militant organization?

Somalia

We believe the factionalism in Somalia and within the jihadist community there will continue to hamper al Shabaab. The questions we will be looking to answer are: Will al Shabaab be able to gain significant control of areas of the country that can be used to harbor and train foreign militants? And, will the group decide to use its contacts within the Somali diaspora to conduct attacks in East Africa, South Africa, Australia, Europe and the United States? We believe that al Shabaab is on its way to becoming a transnational player and that 2010 may well be the year that it breaks out and then draws international attention like AQAP has done in recent months.

India

We anticipate that Kashmiri jihadist groups will continue to plan attacks against India in an effort to stir-up communal violence in that country and stoke tensions between India and Pakistan — and provide a breather to the jihadist groups being pressured by the government of Pakistan.

As long as the ideology of jihadism survives, the jihadists will be able to recruit new militants and their war against the world will continue. The battle will oscillate between periods of high and low intensity as regional groups rise in power and are taken down. We don’t believe jihadists pose a strategic geopolitical threat on a global, or even regional, scale, but they will certainly continue to launch attacks and kill people in 2010.

For more information from the FM site

Reference pages about other topics appear on the right side menu bar, including About the FM website page.  Of special relevance to this post:

Other posts about al Qaeda:

  1. Lessons Learned from the American Expedition to Iraq, 29 December 2005 — Is al Qaeda like Cobra, SPECTRE, and THRUSH?
  2. Successful info ops, but who are the targets?, 1 May 2008
  3. Was 9/11 the most effective single military operation in the history of the world?, 11 June 2008
  4. The enigma of Al Qaeda. Even in death, these unanswered questions remain important, 15 September 2008
  5. “Strategic Divergence: The War Against the Taliban and the War Against Al Qaeda” by George Friedman, 31 January 2009
  6. Read the newest Zenpundit post; one of his best!, 7 August 2009
  7. More evidence that all our enemies are al Qaeda, 14 September 2009
  8. Can we defeat our almost imaginary enemies?, 10 December 2009
  9. RAND explains How Terrorist Groups End, and gives Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida, 15 January 2010

Afterword

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9 thoughts on “Stratfor’s strategic analysis – “Jihadism in 2010: The Threat Continues”

  1. Bush seems to think there is a law of conservation of terrorists, that is to say…

    “Bush seems to think there is a law of conservation of terrorists, that is to say, “There are a certain number of terrorists in the world and you kill them all and you solve the problem.” Unfortunately, this doesn’t solve the problem at all. We aren’t reducing terrorism; rather, we are increasing it.
    — Albert Bartlett, interviewed by Miguel Barbosa, posted at GuruFocus, 15 January 2010

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    FM reply: That’s a feature of American military thought, as seen in this anecdote from an earlier war.

    At an early intergovernmental meeting on the importance of psychological warfare, one of Harkins’ key staffmen, Brigadier General Gerald Kelleher, quickly dismissed that theory. His job, he said, was to kill Vietcong. But the French … had killed a lot of Vietcong and they had not won. “Didn’t kill enough Vietcong,” answered Kelleher.
    — From David Halberstam’s The Best and the Brightest (1972)

  2. Total nonsense all of it. Just some justifications for whatever rubbish that some idiot in the Fire/MIC is thinking up (Yemen, Iran, whatever).

    To wit: Police using all that wonderful powers and technology to raise revene, take the UK (the current leader in all those countries aspiring to become the next East Germany): “The laughing policemen: ‘Inaccurate’ data boosts arrest rate“, The Independent, 17 January 2010 — “Officers accused of targeting ‘law-abiding middle classes’ to meet government performance quotas.”

    For predictions of where we are all going I can offer no greater expert than the great Fred: “The Price of Freedom“, 11 January 2010. A small snippit: “Over the next two months, seven airlines declared bankruptcy and went into chapter eleven. Most foreign airlines announced that they would no longer fly to the United States. Boeing was ordered by TSA to retrofit automatic wrist-restraints on existing aircraft, and Artful Devices, Inc. won a twelve billion dollar contract for an integrated explosive-sniffer, puff-analyzer, millimeter-wave panty-viewer, shoe-x-rayer, stomach pump, CAT-scanner and nitrate-sniffing automated dildo. Our freedoms, at last, were safe”.

    Plus I remind Americans: The US president (or a representative) can declare you an “unperson” and then you have no rights at all. You can be tortured and imprisoned for life. Even 8 year old children are not safe, “Eight-year-old Michael Hicks named on terror watchlist“, The Australian, 16 January 2010.

    Australians should not be complacent, we have the exact same laws as the famous “banning orders” that the old South Africa had. We can disappear anyone anytime for any reason (hint Mandella, don’t come here talking about Aborigines).

    As for the poor old UK, if the Battle of Britain pilots had known how it would turn out today they would have refused to fly. They can actually put a CCTV in your house to monitor you now. Note to the UK Govt: the book 1984 was a warning, not a blueprint!

    Strafor is like the so called ‘neo-liberal economists’. A bunch of mouthpieces to provide figleafs for what ever mad idea the policy elite currently wants to do. The old USSR was expert at that, do the terms ‘useful idiots’ or ‘fellow travellers” or even “Apparatchiks’ strike a bell?
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    FM reply: This strikes me as a bit hysterical — much like Xiaoding’s comment warning that the terrorists can kill us all. Panic is perhaps our greatest enemy, both of you have succumbed, and our survival requires that both your views be ignored. We have enough problems without your gross exaggerations. BTW, do you realize the Fred Reed article is a distopian fantasy?

    Re: the Independent article about police behavior
    I suggest reading about Police behavior a century ago. Today’s police are model citizens by comparison. Your implication that things are getting worse is without factual support.

    “They can actually put a CCTV in your house to monitor you now”
    Do you have a citation for this? All I see are people using CCTVs to protect themselves, the government doing so intrusively. (Doing this as an alternative to prison does not count)

    “Even 8 year old children are not safe”
    That’s nonsense. This is just the usual buracratic confusion. As the story you cite explains:

    On its website, the Transportation Security Administration, which is responsible for airport security, insists that no eight-year-old boy is on the “no-fly” list. “Airlines can and should automatically deselect any eight-year-olds out there that appear to be on a watchlist,” it says. “Whether you’re 8 or 80 the most common occurrence is name confusion and individuals are told they are on the no-fly list when, in fact, they are not.”

  3. I concur with OldSkeptic and am tired of being collectively punished every time a wannabe acts out.

    And I concur with the conclusion that security measures aren’t designed to keep us safe as much as designed to subtly oppress us.

  4. I’m with Old Skeptic & Elle. The economy hasn’t righted itself even with massive intervention by big brother. So how do we get it out of the headlines? Well why not resurrect the terrorist scare again? It worked last time, didn’t it? Maybe a little war with Yemen would help too.

    Did TPTB LET Abdumutallab get on the plane?

  5. A TSA agent at Houston International, hired under federal affirmative-action guidelines, confiscated a latex glove, saying that it looked like a multiple-use condom and you never could be too careful with terrorists.
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    FM reply: If you’re referring to the Fred Reed parody, I hope (I really really hope) you realize that was humor.

    BTW — the use of latex gloves as condoms is not unheard of. See this Yahoo Answers discussion from 2 years ago.

  6. Sorry to disagree again FM, that 8 year old has been on the ‘terror’ list since he was 2! We have seen over and over examples where these incredibly powerful ‘terrorism’ laws have been used in the most trivial ways and/or for dealing with ‘normal’ crimes. Tragedy is that the UK in particular has now moved into ‘thought crimes’, true 1984, or East Germany.

    It is no longer necessary to actually do something, you just have to think about them. Example? “Twitter joke led to Terror Act arrest and airport life ban“, The Independent, 18 January 2010. This person made a joke that you and I make every day. Punishment? Arrested, suspended from his job, banned for life from an airport, plus being on every ‘terror’ list in the World. That’s even before there is any conviction, he faces years in jail.

    Just saw a US comedy show showing a pitchfork as an idea to use against ‘bankers’, rhymes with ‘W’ by the way. In the UK (soon the US?) he’d go to jail. Crimes against humour. Another form of terrorism. By the State against the People. Typical bureaucrat, give them power and it will always, always be abused. And they will more and more use these powers in every circumstance they can.

    And yes, here in Oz we can ban a person, confine them to their house forever and they cannot tell anyone about it, even their work or friends. Plus the media cannot report it. And you can be banned for ‘thought crimes’ you do not have to commit an actual crime to get banned, just like apartheid South Africa. This is not hysteria, this is day to day experience, and it gets worse every day. When you oppress 2 year olds then your society is stuffed.

    Plus it is a total crock of rubbish. Here in Australia, with all the ‘airport security’ (funnily enough all the drugs keep coming through with no interruption), a bunch of Hells Angels went into Sydney Airport in broad daylight and beat a guy to death and then left in a taxi! Well all that taking your shoes off made us so safe.

    Meanwhile, the ‘think tanks’ (more akin to sceptic tanks I think) will hype the terror problems and advocate anything they are paid to do. More weapons, more laws, more wars, whatever. All nonsense, anyone working in these areas sold out decades ago. An interesting financial blog site Zerohedge moved offshore recently, as they said they went ‘long’ on oppression of their criticism of the US Govt, GS .. you know the big boys.

    Now this is terrorism ….. when you are afraid to stand up for your rights and are treated like a criminal all the time. BL could just kill you, now you can be beaten, humiliated, tortured, career destroyed, locked up forever .. and all your friends and family. BL never stopped you thinking, doing and talking about anything you wanted … but the State (Big Brother) does.

    We (ordinary people) are now in more fear of the State than official ‘terrorism’.
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    FM reply: This is hysteria, pure and simple. Gross exaggeration, even more so than your last comments. Much of this I’ve shown to be nonsense before, so I’ll just mention one specific you give — and show how it’s false. The story in the Independent…

    “It is no longer necessary to actually do something, you just have to think about them.”
    False. He did in fact do something.

    “This person made a joke .”
    “{H}e decided to vent his frustrations on Twitter by tapping out a comment to amuse his friends”. This is how panics start. His friend sends it to someone (or someone who sees it via Google), and soon we have a problem. Posting it on a website is not like chatting on the phone or email. It’s a public message.

    “that you and I make every day”
    Speak for yourself. I doubt that many of us do something so stupid and potentially disruptive. While the police reaction is IMO grossly excessive, some action is appropriate. It’s not a subject for jokes.

  7. re: most of the discussion on this thread, about the degree of threat that anti-terror laws give to privacy. One of the odder ironies of privacy in this age seems to me that, on one hand, people feel paranoid that the security apparatus will take away our privacy. We fear that our inner lives will become naked and we will have no secrets. And there is some justification for our fear.

    But at the same time we all, of our own free volition, get on the internet and constantly tell everyone exactly what we think about all kinds of topics. And then we get on Facebook, and put up photos of ourselves and make public our email, phone # and city right next to our name. And then talk about our personal lives on Twitter or some such thing.

    I sometimes wonder, is the state really taking our privacy or are we slowly giving it away for free?
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    FM reply: I assume this is a joke. You cannot seriously compare the sort of information disclosed on Facebook with government and corporate use of personal information.

  8. From #7: FM reply: I assume this is a joke. You cannot seriously compare the sort of information disclosed on Facebook with government and corporate use of personal information.

    Fabius, I’m not joking. Of course you are correct, one cannot seriously compare the info one can get from a basic check on Facebook with the kind you can get from, say, tapping someone’s phone.

    But consider this: on Facebook there is a downloadable Java application which takes you and and all your “Facebook Freinds” and creates a relationship map between you and all your connections. When I did this, I was amazed at the picture it produced… a gigantic web of all the people I know on FB, with all links between these people shown. The algorithm even sorted my FB freinds into groups based solely on who linked to whom, and these groups were surprisingly accurate: my family showed as blue circles, my many political contacts were a red cloud, some people I know in Texas showed as green, and my high-school freinds were all purple! It occurred to me then, that if the FBI wanted to look at networks of anti-war people, with an eye to disrupting these antiwar networks, they could get a lot of useful info by just logging into Facebook as, say Cindy Sheehan (one of my “FB freinds”), and running this same application!

    On a more cultural note, I know US culture has a very hard-edged view of privacy, what with some folks deciding to hoard guns and ammo in the delusional belief that this will protect them from the Feds. But at the same time, we have a tendency toward show and spectacle, where people are encouraged to bare their lives in a public manner. Think “Reality TV”, or even Twitter. People give away a lot of dangerously personal stuff on blogs, for instance. Think of the instances where people have been fired from their jobs for talking about work issues on their blogs.

  9. The advanced stage of arragonce is terrorism. Terrorism occurs among people who are so desperate to be right and to prove others wrong that they kill those who disagree with them.Arrogance, the seed of terrorism, is not a religious trait. It’s a state of insecurity so strong that it leads some people to try to redesign the world into a place that no longer confuses them.

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