Warning of an imminent strike at Iran by Israel

Summary:  Another war warning about a strike by Israel at Iran.  Unlike the many others reported on this website, this one comes from people whose words deserve attention.  Let’s hope they over-estimate the odds.

Here is a warning of an imminent strike by Israel at Iran, given by Pat Lang and other intel professionals in an op-ed posted at Consortium News on 3 August 2010.  Since they do not have a website, the authenticity of this is unknown.  If true,  (Update:  Pat Lang confirms that the op-ed is genuine)  {T}heir warning deserves attention.  They present little evidence supporting their forecast of an attack “as early as this month”, but their analysis deserves to be read in full.

As the posts listed below show, an attack by Israel has low odds of crippling Iran’s atomic weapon program — with catastrophic consequences for Israel.  Perhaps the US, too.  Unfortunately that only makes such a strike unlikely, not impossible.


  1. The op-ed
  2. About Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
  3. Background Information about Iran and Israel
  4. Posts about Iran’s atomic bomb program
  5. Posts about a strike by Israel at Iran
  6. Afterword and contact info

(1)  Excerpt from the op-ed

Memorandum For:  The President
From:  Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
Subject:  War With Iran
“We write to alert you to the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran as early as this month. This would likely lead to a wider war. …”

Signed by the VIPS steering group:

  • Ray Close, Directorate of Operations, Near East Division, CIA (26 years)
  • Phil Giraldi, Directorate of Operations, CIA (20 years)
  • Larry Johnson, Directorate of Intelligence, CIA; Department of State, Department of Defense consultant (24 years)
  • W. Patrick Lang, Col., USA, Special Forces (ret.); Senior Executive Service: Defense Intelligence Officer for Middle East/South Asia, Director of HUMINT Collection, Defense Intelligence Agency (30 years)
  • Ray McGovern, US Army Intelligence Officer, Directorate of Intelligence, CIA (30 years)
  • Coleen Rowley, Special Agent and Minneapolis Division Counsel, FBI (24 years)
  • Ann Wright, Col., US Army Reserve (ret.), (29 years); Foreign Service Officer, Department of State (16 years)  

Update:  Lang confirms that he signed this, although he is no longer a member of VIPS.

(2)  Background information about VIPS

From Wikipedia:

VIPS is a group of current and former officials of the United States Intelligence Community, including some from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the U.S. State Department’s Intelligence Bureau, and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). This group issued a letter before the 2003 invasion of Iraq stating that, “The narrow focus on Resolution 1441 has diverted attention from the wider picture. It is crucial that we not lose sight of that. Intelligence community analysts are finding it hard to make themselves heard above the drumbeat for war.”

The group was formed in January 2003 as a “coast-to-coast enterprise” to protest the use of faulty intelligence “upon which the US/UK invasion of Iraq was based

Here is a list of their publications, posted at After Downing Street (now War Is A Crime).

(3)  Background Information about Iran and Israel

  1. Iran’s oil and gas wealth“, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, March 2006 (4 pages)
  2. Iran, Country Analysis Brief“, US Energy Information Agency (EIA), October 2007 (17 pages)
  3. Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, National Intelligence Estimate, November 2007
  4. As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon“, Joschka Fischer, The Daily Star, 30 May 2008 — Fischer was Germany’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, and led Germany’s Green Party for nearly 20 years.
  5. As Iran Tests Missile Fleet, Experts Map High-Tech Israeli Attack“, Popular Mechanics, 9 July 2008
  6. “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.”, David Albright, Paul Brannan and Jacqueline Shire, Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), 7 August 2008, 15 pages — Here is the link, 2.2 meg PDF.  About the ISIS
  7. Debunking Myths About Nuclear Weapons and Terrorism“, Stratfor, 29 May 2009

(4)  Posts about Iran’s atomic bomb program

  1. Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger? , 13 November 2007
  2. Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?, 16 January 2009
  3. More about Iran, things you know that might not be so, 3 October 2009
  4. Jeremy Hammond explains why Iran’s New Nuclear Site is “Much Ado About Nothing”, 30 September 2009
  5. Follow-up on America’s latest wetting our pants episode: Iran’s secret atomic facility, 13 November 2009
  6. Iran will have the bomb in 5 years (again), 21 January 2010

(5)  Posts about a strike by Israel at Iran

  1. Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran , 22 December 2007
  2. A new story about a possible war with Iran, 21 May 2008 — About the 20 May Jerusalem Post story, originally reported by Army Radio (see below).
  3. “As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon”. 3 June 2008 — About the Fischer story in the 30 May Daily Star.
  4. “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable” . 8 June 2008  — War-talk by a former Defense Minster of Israel.
  5. Der Spiegel: “Israeli Ministers Mull Plans for Military Strike against Iran”. 17 June 2008 — Rumors in Der Spiegel of a strike by Israel on Iran.
  6. More rumors of a strike at Iran by Israel, 1 July 2008 — More rumors.
  7. Leaks about a possible strike at Iran (this is a hot issue), 7 July 2008 — Leaks of concerns about the effectiveness of a strike by Israel, and the consequences.
  8. ISIS: “Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.”, 8 August 2008
  9. Hot news about a possible strike at Iran!, 3 July 2010

(6)  Afterword and contact info

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