Summary: Yesterday’s post looked backwards (How accurately did the FM website forecast events in 2011?). Today we look forward. What can we expect in 2012? In brief, lots of action — but few endings.
The real challenge in strategy is not in finding the data, nor even in its analysis; in the internet age, bucket-loads of data are readily available, while much econometric analysis is relatively straightforward; instead, the true challenge is to properly assess the functional relevance of the various phenomena. If one is looking at the wrong variables, one will of necessity predict the wrong outcomes …
— Eric Kraus, Truth and Beauty, 14 December 2011
“Always in motion is the future.”
— Yoda, Jedi-Knight
The FM website exists for two reasons:
- To help readers better understand the geopolitics of our world, and how it’s changing;
- to awaken Americans from their slumber, so we can retake the Republic.
So with the focus provided by those goals, what can we guess about 2012?
Update: To put 2012 in context, historians might see 2011 as the tipping point for the Republic. The climax of the rapid decay since 9-11, when our ruling elites realized our weakness — and exploited it. Now comes the consolidation of their quiet coup, and the attempts at a counter-revolution (probably unsuccessful).
- The Constitution will continue to die, sliding ever-faster into the grave. The American people will continue to slumber while our ruling elites increase their power.
- Obama will continue to govern with a center-right policy mix, continuing what is in effect Bush Jr’s third term.
- The GOP will continue to describe Obama as a radical leftist (with their unaffiliated action groups describing him as a illegitimate President, perhaps even Moslem).
- The 2012 Presidential election will be decided on two axises: the economy and the GOP’s ability to select a strong candidate — or one that can be sold to the American people as such. As they have done with cardboard candidates like Dole in 1996 (age 63), McCain in 2008 (age 72) — and perhaps with Ron Paul in 2012 (age 76).
- The GOP will continue their “the worse, the better” tactics to prevent any effective public policy action by the US government in 2012. So 2013 will be the year of decision for America, out next opportunity for major reforms.
- The US will continue its mad crusade against fundamentalist Islam — bombing people across the globe– its public support driven by information operations run against the American people by the US government.
- Our foreign wars (Iraq and Af-Pak) will continue to wind down. As the adrenalin high of the wars fade, we’ll see the damage they’ve inflicted on the US military (see here for details).
- The craft of the Navy and Air Force will continue to age, as the Services are unable to convince Congress of the necessity to buy replacements.
- The Marine Corps will continue to search for its next life, torn between the nation’s need for a 4GW-savvy mobile striking force and its institutional fantasy to be a second Army.
- The Euro-crisis will accelerate, perhaps even to a conclusion.
- Currency flight will continue from the periphery.
- Europe will slide into recession, probably a severe recession.
- The combination will shake the foundations of Europe’s political and economic regimes. We can only guess at the result.
- China’s (and East Asia’s) economy will continue to slow; the resulting stress will provide the greatest stress on the regime since the period following Mao’s death. We’ll learn the validity of the China doomsters’ theories. For a good summary of the situation see today’s column by Paul Krugman: “Will China Break?“
- The facade of the global warming crusade will continue to crack, showing the evolving but still uncertain science behind it. Public confidence in science will be the greatest casualty.
- Cyberwar will become the primary terrain for small wars between nations, replacing proxy wars in the Third World (more on this another day).
- 4GW will continue to become the dominate form of violent conflict in this century, both within and between nations.
Some of the unknowns for 2012
The effect of slow solar cycle 24 on Earth’s climate? Solar scientists will learn much from this cycle.
Will the ENSO continue to cool the Pacific (with more and stronger La Nina than El Nino cycles)? More cooling might disrupt crops, boost food prices, and destabilized less-developed nations in East Asia and Latin America.
Will Obama (desperate for re-election) or Israel (desperate, seeing the ranks of its friends dwindle and its enemies gain power) attack Iran? Often history turns on illogical decisions.
For More Information
See these FM Reference Pages for more posts on these topics:
- Predictions – how do they look now?
- Forecasts – possible futures for America and the World
- Speculation about the future by western military and intelligence agencies, section 6 on Intelligence agencies – how they work, how they don’t