Summary: Today we ask about the future of the GOP, and America. Are they ascendant, or a list gasp of a dying ideology? We ask the mineshaft! As in “ask the community”, from the German “Gemeinschaft” (see Wikipedia). Post your answer in the comments.
To help you better understand the world, the FM website takes clear positions on current events — and sometimes makes bold predictions about the future. The results appear in the Past Predictions (wins) and Smackdowns pages. Here we discuss a prediction about a vital question, asking if my prediction so far looks accurate or wrong.
The GOP ran a disastrous campaign in 2008. Two days before the election I outlined two paths the GOP might take after defeat.
- Door #1: Purge the Party’s membership, keeping only the faithful
- Door #2: reflection and rebuilding
I cited a large body of GOP defectors predicting the GOP would take door #1, leading to its doom. Other posts (see below) explored the likely consequences.
The GOP did take door #1, with the rise of the Tea Party, purging of moderates (ie, center-right), and radicalizing of its platform — to the point of madness, a large-scale disconnect from reality seen by its leaders, pundits, and candidates. It’s visible almost each day in the headlines.
But instead of collapse, they gained power in the 2010 elections. Since then trends in both Congress and the Courts suggest a movement ascendant — not in decline. Polls show America even split between the two parties, an unusual degree of balance between them.
Does this reflect the GOP gaining strength, as the plutocracy’s growing strength empowers them?
Or is it a temporary rise driven by aging white boomers at the peak of their wealth and political involvement — fearful of a strange future, turning right in reaction — ending in political oblivion as the next generation of ethnically diverse (and far less fundamentalist Christian) voters swing to the Democrats?
More specifically, what happens in November? In February I forecast that a weakening economy would lead to a win by Romney and his team of competent political engineers. Both the weak economy and political competency now seem questionable assumptions.
For More Information
For all posts on this topic see the FM Reference Page Politics in America – and the 2012 Campaign.
About the future of America:
- A look at the future of America, unlike the expectations of conservatives and liberals, 10 August 2011
- Remember the old days, when the GOP and Dems advocated different policies? No longer, since the conservatives won., 5 August 2012.
About the future of the Republican Party:
- What happens to the Republican Party after the election?, 2 November 2008
- R.I.P., G.O.P. – a well-deserved end, 7 November 2008 — Policies that led the GOP to the cliff and over it.
- Conservative reflections about America – starting to use their time in the wilderness to think, 15 November 2008
- Conservatives should look back before attempting to move forward, 5 December 2008
About the 2012 election:
- Republicans have found a sure-fire path to victory in the November elections, 5 February 2010
- Mitt Romney and the Empire of Hubris. Setting America on a path to decline., 10 October 2011
- President Romney will prove an effective President, reshaping America for his constituents., 17 April 2012
- Romney back on top. More evidence that the campaign news matters little. It’s the economy!, 19 July 2012
- The significance for America of Romney’s choice of Ryan as VP, 11 August 2012