Summary: as we pass the Spring prediction “barrier”, the models become more accurate. The confident predictions of a “super” “monster” El Niño appear less likely, yet another in the endless series of false alarms by the Left’s alarmists. This is why people no longer listen, except for those who get enjoy disaster porn as entertainment. It’s the boy who cried wolf: people no longer listen to repeated false alarms, so that the eventual accurate warning is ignored.
From a broader perspective, our gullibility is a great weakness. Until we become more savvy, more skeptical, reform in America might be impossible. If we’re unlucky, even survival might be difficult.
This is a follow-up to About the warnings of a monster super El Niño coming to you this year, 2 May 2014, which provides detailed information about these cycles and their effects. And the 16 June 2014 update: Learning about – and from – the super monster El Niño coming this year.
- Searching for El Niño: the climate giant
- Will there be a super monster in 2014-15?
- Why do climate scientists speak in terms of probabilities?
- Other posts about this event
- For More Information about El Niño
- Other posts about weather & climate
(1) Searching for El Niño: the climate giant
Now that we’re coming through the Spring prediction “barrier”, forecasts for the next six months become more accurate. Here’s what the models say, from the National Weather Service’s Weekly ENSO Update, 23 June 2014.
(a) An El Niño is likely in 2014 – 2015. The columns show the odds of each event. The lines are the average historical probability for each quarter.
(b) IRI/NWS Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook
“Most models favor El Niño (greater or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop in the next several months and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2014. Model of the NWS and International Research Institute (IRI).” But with a peak of only 1.5, no “super” “monster” El Niño.
(c) SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast
“The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño starting in the late Northern Hemisphere summer/early fall.” Again, with a peak of only 1.5 it predicts no “super” “monster” El Niño.
(2) What makes an El Niño “super” and “monster”?
The models shown above forecast an El Niño peaking with a Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5°K – 1.5°K. If correct, would anomalies in that range make it a super monster El Niño? No.
First, the top of that range barely qualifies as a strong El Niño. Because NOAA has definitions):
Weak El Niño: Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 0.5°C and less than or equal to 0.9°C.
Moderate El Niño: Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 1.0°C and less than or equal to 1.4°C.
Strong El Niño: Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 1.5°C.
Second, such levels are not unusual. There have been eight stronger El Niño cycles since 1951 (63 years itself being a brief time), including the 1997-98 El Niño peaking at 2.4 (source: NWS weekly report).
(3) Why do climate scientists speak in terms of probabilities?
Amateurs, especially alarmists amateurs, speaking with confidence of certainties. Climate scientists speak of probabilities. For an explanation see “Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities?“, Anthony Barnston, NOAA, 19 June 2014.
(4) Other posts about this event
- 1. About the warnings of a monster super El Nino coming to you this year, 2 May 2014 — provides detailed information about these cycles and their effects.
- 2. Learning about – and from – the super monster El Niño coming this year, 16 June 2014
(5) For More Information about El Niño
- Recommended: “United States El Niño Impacts“, Mike Halpert (Deputy Direct of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center; bio here), Climate.gov (NOAA), 12 June 2014
- Recommended: “Eight Misconceptions About El Niño (and La Niña)“, Francesco Fiondella, IRICS (joint project of NOAA & Columbia), 30 June 2014
- Comprehensive list of Sea Surface Temperature & El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Predictions, at NOAA’s website
- Effects of El Niño on world weather, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
- Weather Impacts of ENSO, National Weather Service
- ENSO impacts: El Niño Southern Oscillation is a key component of year-to-year climate variability, UK Met Office
- NOAA’s weekly ENSO update
(4) Other posts about weather & climate
(a) Reference Pages about climate on the FM sites:
- The important things to know about global warming
- My posts
- Studies & reports, by subject
- The history of climate fears
(b) Posts asking if we’re prepared for past weather:
- Hurricane Sandy asks when did weather become exceptional? (plus important info about US hurricanes), 28 October 2012
- Have we prepared for normal climate change and non-extreme weather?, 11 February 2014
- Droughts are coming. Are we ready for the past to repeat?, 12 March 2014
- About the warnings of a monster super El Nino coming to you this year, 2 May 2014