Prepare for terror on the 4th of July!

Summary: Another holiday, another rumor of a terrorist attack. Here we examine today’s alarm, show why it’s probably baseless, and discuss the purpose these fear attacks serve.  It’s a fit subject for the 4th of July weekend, a time for us to compare the Founders’ hopes vs. what we’ve become.  {2nd of 2 posts today.}

“He who has overcome his fears will truly be free.”
— Attributed to Aristotle.

The partnership of al Qaeda and America’s Deep State has reshaped our society in ways we don’t fully understand and cannot clearly see — but has made us more fearful, perhaps cowardly. Since 9/11 we have had these holiday warnings (fortunately they’re getting less frequent, and getting less attention).

Meteorologist Anthony Watts runs Watts up with That, one of the largest climate websites (by audience) in the world. Today he posted “About the Fourth of July and ISIS – from a friend who is a police officer, and a ‘spook’“, opening with this from Jeff Greeson’s Facebook page (I can’t find it):

To everyone that reads my wall, ESPECIALLY in big cities: The freakout over the 4th of July is real. I get intelligence that you don’t get, and the FBI is serious this time. Go out and be an American, but keep a charged cellphone with you, and don’t let fear of being called a racist stop you from calling [in] something in that is suspicious. And for the sake of all that’s holy, if something makes your Spidey sense tingle, GET YOUR FAMILY AWAY FROM IT.

He points to this by pseudonymous “Nate Hale”, allegedly a “retired military intelligence officer” who posted a scary note at In From the Cold…

Two days ago, former Deputy CIA Director Michael Morrell said there was “nothing routine” about warnings of possible ISIS attacks in the CONUS during the 4th of July weekend. At the time, we noted it was quite unusual for a former intelligence official to be so blunt in his assessment.  Mr. Morrell (who made the observation on CBS This Morning) went on to say that he “wouldn’t be surprised if we’re sitting her a week from today talking about an ISIS attack in the United States over the [July 4th] weekend.”

Now, we’re beginning to see why Morrell offered such a dire prediction.  Shepard Smith of Fox News reported last night the FBI is establishing special command centers in 56 cities around the country, to prepare for possible terrorist attacks during the holiday period.

… But there are more signs of mounting fears about a possible weekend attack.  A federal official told Gateway Pundit that FBI agents scheduled for vacations over July 4th have been told to cancel their plans, and report for duty.  The same source also reports that FBI agents are telling family and friends to avoid “official” holiday celebrations.

… And here’s another possibility: ISIS is on the verge of a July 4th spectacular, striking multiple CONUS targets at roughly the same time.  That’s another reason the FBI would see the need for so many command centers across the country.

… Enjoy your 4th of July.

Debunking the story

First, the warning by CIA Deputy Director Morrell was vague, “business as usual” since 9/11, without any formal notice, and of a type repeatedly proven false since 9/11. Homeland Security and the FBI issued a bulletin …

While there was no specific or credible threat of attack, the official said the intelligence bulletin prepared by the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI alerted local colleagues to the ongoing threats posed by the Islamic State and other homegrown extremists. The official was not authorized to comment publicly.

The bulletins are frequently issued in advance of major U.S. holidays out of an abundance of caution and concern that operatives may exploit the timing to generate greater attention.

Second, Shepard Smith’s Fox News story from June 29 is only 4 paragraphs long, with this the only information (or “information”; red emphasis added)…

The FBI is establishing command centers around the country to monitor any potential terrorist threats around the July 4 weekend, a federal law enforcement source told Fox News. The source said while there is no specific, credible threat surrounding the holiday, its symbolic nature offers a potential target for terror groups like ISIS.

Third, the FBI cancelling leaves would be significant (if true). Unlike sounding alarms, cancelling leaves has a cost to the FBI in terms of damaged morale and rescheduling efforts (if for a false alarm). But it’s a rumor. I called my local FBI office and was told that they are not aware of any leaves being cancelled.

Do these alarms make us stronger or weaker?

These rumors about terror attacks generate a flood of false alarms to the police with almost nil odds of actually detecting a terrorist attack. They’re almost useless, as security expert Bruce Schneier explained back in 2004.

In theory, the warnings are supposed to cultivate an atmosphere of preparedness. If Americans are vigilant against the terrorist threat, then maybe the terrorists will be caught and their plots foiled. And repeated warnings brace Americans for the aftermath of another attack.

The problem is that the warnings don’t do any of this. Because they are so vague and so frequent, and because they don’t recommend any useful actions that people can take, terror threat warnings don’t prevent terrorist attacks.

… And the alerts don’t result in a more vigilant America. It’s one thing to issue a hurricane warning, and advise people to board up their windows and remain in the basement. Hurricanes are short-term events, and it’s obvious when the danger is imminent and when it’s over. People can do useful things in response to a hurricane warning; then there is a discrete period when their lives are markedly different, and they feel there was utility in the higher alert mode, even if nothing came of it.

It’s quite another thing to tell people to be on alert, but not to alter their plans — as Americans were instructed last Christmas. A terrorist alert that instills a vague feeling of dread or panic, without giving people anything to do in response, is ineffective. Indeed, it inspires terror itself.

To deduce the goal of an action, look at the effect. More fear in America suits the needs not just of our foes, but also our leaders by keeping the American people weak and so easily led. We need not oblige them by circulating these kinds of rumors.

For More Information

If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about our fearful America, about grandly named Islamic State, and especially these reports about terrorism…

• About the warnings of a monster super El Nino coming to you this year.
• Will we starve after all the bees die?
• Requiem for fear. Let’s learn from failed predictions to have confidence in ourselves & our future.
• Threats come & go, leaving us in perpetual fear & forgetful of the past.
• Are ISIS terrorists coming to America from a base in Mexico? — Spoiler: no.